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2022 Durham National Preview, Trends & Analysis

Published: Oct 18, 10:16am Last Updated: Oct 18, 2:40pm Horse Racing 0 Comments 330 Views

2022 Durham National Preview

Scheduled to take place in April of each year at the Sedgefield racecourse is the Durham National, the race is open to runners who are aged five or older with the race being run over a trip of three miles, five furlongs and fifty-four yards in which runner will face a total of twenty-four fences.

If you are interested in other predictions at Sedgefield then head over to the Sedgefield Betting Picks page to see which runners are being supported by the OLBG racing tipsters and also compare those predictions to the runners that make the trend shortlist when added below.

When looking over the past 20 renewals, a time of 6:48.90 was set by Fatehalkhair in 2002, that is the quickest time over that period, the runner was trained by Brian Ellison and ridden by V T Keane. The slowest winning time was set in 2012 when Chamirey won in a time of 8:35.60, booked to ride was Jason Maguire on this Donald McCain trained runner.

These are the top three quickest run Durham National over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2002 - Fatehalkhair (6:48.90)
  • 2007 - Burren Moonshine (6:54.50)
  • 2011 - Simply Smashing (7:02.30)

How competitive is the Durham National market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2015 when the race had an over-round of 110%. The race in 2002 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 124%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Durham National, the over-round has been 116% that means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £116 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Durham National next time out then you would have back a total of 3 winners. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -4.80. Remember to bookmark the racing tips page so you can get easy access to the OLBG racing picks on a daily basis.

Durham National Past Winners

Here are the past 10 winners of the Durham National. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Durham National as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse Info
2021
7:31.59
Hewick
6yo 11-5 3/1F
S Fenelon (7lbs)
John Joseph Hanlon
2020
7:29.60
Red Giant
9yo 10-1 16/1
Sean Quinlan
Jennie Candlish
2019
7:56.40
The Caller
8yo 10-1 13/2
Sean Bowen
Robert Stephens
2018
7:26.30
Brian Boranha
7yo 11-6 7/1
Henry Brooke
Peter Niven
2017
7:31.50
Audacious Plan
8yo 11-0 6/4F
Brian Hughes
Dr Richard Newland
2016
7:20.40
Buachaill Alainn
9yo 10-11 6/1
Sean Bowen
Peter Bowen
2015
7:46.50
Royale Knight
9yo 11-8 10/1
William Kennedy
Dr Richard Newland
2014
7:53.20
Royale Knight
8yo 11-1 11/4F
Daryl Jacob
Dr Richard Newland
2013
7:13.70
Lackamon
8yo 11-12 11/2
Ryan Mania
Sue Smith
2012
8:35.60
Chamirey
9yo 11-0 13/2
Jason Maguire
Donald McCain

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Durham National have been based:

  • GB: 18 winners with an additional 34 placings from 183 runners
  • FR: 1 winner with an additional 2 placings from 12 runners
  • IRE: 1 winner with an additional 0 placings from 3 runners

Durham National Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Durham National over the last 20 renewals is Dr Richard Newland who has won the race 3 times. Those 3 winners came from Royale Knight (2014), Royale Knight (2015) & Audacious Plan (2017). The only other trainer to have recorded multiple wins in the Durham National is Peter Bowen (2 wins).

Here are some of the top Durham National trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
Dr Richard Newland 7-3-4 +10.25 +6.16
Peter Bowen 13-2-4 -2.00 -3.82
Sue Smith 19-1-8 -12.50 -4.73
Brian Ellison 8-1-4 +0.50 +0.45
Jennie Candlish 4-1-2 +13.00 +7.95
Peter Niven 4-1-2 +4.00 +2.57
Donald McCain 3-1-1 +4.50 +2.06
Philip Kirby 3-1-1 +3.50 +1.30
Chris Bealby 2-1-1 +27.00 +16.50
Robert Stephens 1-1-1 +6.50 +3.90

Durham National Jockey Statistics

There are two leading jockeys in the Durham National over the last 20 renewals with both Brian Hughes & Sean Bowen who have both won the race 2 times. Brian Hughes winners have been with General Hardi (2010) & Audacious Plan (2017). Sean Bowen winners have been with Buachaill Alainn (2016) & The Caller (2019).

Here are some of the top Durham National jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Brian Hughes 10-2-5 +4.50 +2.58
Sean Bowen 6-2-3 +8.50 +4.33
Sean Quinlan 7-1-3 +10.00 +5.79
Graham Lee 6-1-3 -1.67 -0.32
Dougie Costello 5-1-3 +12.00 +8.43
Henry Brooke 5-1-1 +3.00 +0.38
Ryan Mania 3-1-1 +3.50 +1.30
Tom O'Brien 3-1-1 +1.00 -0.20
William Kennedy 1-1-1 +10.00 +6.25
S Fenelon 1-1-1 +3.00 +1.80

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,6,UR,1,2,(1,PU),(1,PU),PU,5,2,3,PU,2,1,6,3,1,3,4,7,1

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (76%) - Off a break of 3-53 days
  • 20 / 20 (80%) - Made 1-5 starts (90 Days)
  • 20 / 20 (85%) - Made 3-11 starts (1 Year)
  • 20 / 20 (90%) - Made 14-80 starts (Career)
  • 19 / 20 (80%) - Field of 6-16 runners (LTO)
  • 19 / 20 (81%) - No bigger than 16/1
  • 19 / 20 (84%) - Not on Heavy or Soft (LTO)
  • 19 / 19 (84%) - No bigger than 11/1 (Last Win)
  • 17 / 20 (75%) - No bigger than 12/1 (LTO)

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Sedgefield racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Durham National. You may want to do your own research into the race, there are times when there are a number of runners who pass the trends so you need to do your own research to find a bet, we have a Horse Racing Form Reading Made Easy & What to Look For article to help you do just this in the OLBG Betting School section.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not! With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the Durham National by adding a tip on the race here.

Durham National Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +54.33 is when runners had 0 wins in the past year. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 0 starts in the past 90 days, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-37.

The courses which have produced the most winners of the Durham National are Sedgefield and Chepstow, there has been a total number of 3 winners from each of those courses.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 19 winners from a total of 187 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 1 winner from a total of 11 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Durham National, that stallion is Kings Theatre who has produced 2 winners (2015,2014).

Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have been disappointed with multiple attempts but no wins in the Durham National, that stallion is Presenting who has failed to produce a winner from 5 runners.

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Surface To Air in 2008 when winning for Chris Bealby at odds of 28/1 under the guidance of Tom Messenger. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 6 winning favourites in the race. Remember to bookmark the best racing tipsters page so you can get easy access to the best OLBG racing tipsters.

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