How To Make Money From 3yo Handicaps - Mid Season Update

I'm not sure how others feel about this flat season so far and I'm interested to hear from other followers of 3yo form about how they've been getting on. For me it's been a bit of an odd season so far, normally by now I have a list of around 20 horses that I would consider as ‘max bets' next time out having run in particularly strong 3yo handicaps that have been producing winner after winner. Currently my list is around 3 horses long! Despite going through pretty much every 3yo handicap run this season I've struggled to find races that are consistently spewing out winners and those that have worked out well and tended to contain fairly small fields meaning I've only been able to get one or two winners out them.

The Season So Far

There have been a few races that have worked out well from earlier in the season and these have provided me with maybe two or three winners from each race. In my first blog on this subject earlier in the year I mentioned that there is a 7f Newbury Handicap that usually produces winners and that race didn't disappoint this year with the first three home all going on to win again and the sixth and seventh also winning in their next start.
You can normally rely on a Kempton middle distance handicap throwing up some winners too and this 1m3f handicap obliged with the first three home all winning again next time out. Frustratingly Jathabah, who finished fourth, is now 20lbs higher than in this race but ran only in listed races and Group 3 since so didn't exploit that brilliant handicap mark.
So these races have helped out with the winners but there has been nothing (as of yet) that has worked out well as this 1m handicap at Newmarket last season in which 7 of the first 10 home won on one of their next two starts, many at double figure prices.

The List

So what use is this for the rest of the season? Well there are still a couple of horses in some of the above races that should be able to win next time out in the right conditions and there are a few other recent races that have shown signs of working out so I thought it would be good to share those. Very few would come into the ‘max bet' category but I'd expect these horses to pay their way for the rest of the season.
Zeus Magic - From that Kempton handicap above, he's run twice without success and the first run was particularly commendable as he wasn't beaten far by a subsequent listed winner. The next run was a bit more disappointing but the slow pace didn't suit on that occasion and he's been off since. He'll get further and is fine on the all weather or softer turf and he's well handicapped two runs at Kempton this season. **AFTER 3 RUNS FOR HIS NEW YARD WINS AT 8/1 AND 9/488
Hay Dude - Ran in the Newbury race above and won next time out but still looks well handicapped based on his run behind Remote at Doncaster. I backed him then at Ayr hoping the forecast rain would arrive and he ran really well off a slow pace on ground that was too fast and I'd expect him to win next time he gets a mile and softish ground. **WINNER OF HIS FIRST START SINCE AT 5/2**
Secret Art - The race he won at Sandown is one of the best handicaps of the season with the 2nd home winning easily next time out and the fourth, fifth and sixth all placing next time out in class 2 or 3 races. He then only finished 4th last week at Ascot but that was also a very strong race that in time is likely to see some of those runners added to my list. I was also concerned about the ground at Ascot so on slightly softer ground over a mile or 7f he should get back to winning ways. **FINALLY WON ON HIS SEVENTH RUN SINCE AT 7/1. WON OFF SAME MARK AS HE WAS ORIGINALLY RECOMMENDED OFF.**
Burning Blaze - Third in that Sandown handicap, he travelled like the best horse but just found a stiff 7f on softish ground too much. He's very well handicapped and ideally I'd like to see him over an easy 7f (or even six and a half) on decent ground. A stiff 6f on good ground should also be fine.
Pythagorean - Fourth in that Sandown handicap and was unbelievably unlucky next time out over the same course and distance on Eclipse day. Might not be much of a price because of that but almost certain to win in the same conditions in the right company. **BEATEN JUST A NOSE ON NEXT START AT 7/2**
Estiqaama - Won her last two starts, the latest of which at Sandown is already working out well with Great Timing, the second home, winning nicely next time and even 6th winning next time out. She'll be up in the weights again but looks capable of defying a rise. **WINNER OF HIS FIRST START SINCE BY 8 LENGTHS AT 6/4**
Squire Osbaldeston - All three of his maiden runs have worked out and based on his penultimate start I'd say he ran to a mark of 85 or so and then last time at Goodwood to a similar figure (maybe slightly less). Hasn't been seen since early May but if handicapped below the 85 mark which seems likely would look a sure handicap winner over middle distances. **WINNER OF HIS FIRST START SINCE AT 5/4 AND THEN WON AGAIN TWO STARTS LATER AT 7/4**
Intrepid - Ran well on his handicap debut to finish third behind two very progressive animals (winner won next two starts, second has finished first and second since). The fourth has also won since. That was his seasonal debut so more improvement is likely. All his form is on the all weather but also since he's been gelded so jury is out to whether or not he can reproduce it on turf.
Spats Colombo - Dead heated against a subsequent winner at Carlisle (third has won twice since) and then ran well off a 4lb higher mark when coming from miles back to finish ahead of two subsequent winners at Pontefract. Still some mileage in that mark and a step up in trip might suit (ran okay previously over 14f). *Edit. Just noticed this is entered tomorrow at Hamilton, disappointingly dropping back in trip. *Edit2 Outpaced as expected, a few more furlongs and preferably easier ground too should see him back in the winners enclosure. **WINNER OF HIS SECOND START SINCE AT 5/2**
Fledged - Should be very interesting in handicaps having only just been beaten behind Great Hall who won off 88 subsequently and he finished just ahead of easy maiden winner Seamless also in that race. He then looked a bit disappointing on his latest start when looking well beaten a furlong out before rallying gamely, only to lose by a nose. He has good form and is trained by John Gosden so handicap mark and price next time out might not be amazing but looks sure to win races off handicap marks anywhere in the 80s. **WINNER OF HIS FIRST START SINCE AT 7/4** That was only a maiden, now up 6lbs for future handicaps. **WINNER OF HIS HANDICAP DEBUT AT 4/6**
Seal Of Approval - Not a 3yo but worth monitoring. I backed him last time out pretty sure that he was well handicapped and had all but written off my bet when he drifted from 6/1 to 14/1 after an absence of 10 months. He won well though and that drift suggests he wasn't fully tuned up. Will stay further and doesn't want firm ground apparently. **WINNER OF HIS FIRST START SINCE AT 7/2** **THEN WON A GROUP 1 AT ASCOT TWO STARTS LATER AT 16/1**
Red Orator - Another older horse, he's flopped twice since running really well in a very strong Newmarket handicap won by Tiger Cliff that has thrown up many winners. Particularly worrying for connections has been his slow starts on his last two starts but this horse really wants soft ground so all his firm ground form this season is very respectable. When he gets soft ground and preferably two miles as well he should be winning easily.
Brass Ring - Potentially the best handicapped middle distance horse in training, he beat Renew and Café Society easily at Donny and both those horses won good races next time out. That was Brass Ring's handicap debut and in hindsight he was well handicapped on that occasion having beaten Prairie Ranger comfortably in his maiden win, that horse is now rated 80 and also behind in that maiden was Chancery who won a handicap easily off 82 last weekend. Apparently Brass Ring might be saved until next season but whenever he emerges, presumably now rated around 90, he'll be winning. **WINNER OF HIS FIRST START SINCE AT 5/6**
Esteaming - Won the 12f handicap for 3yos at the Dante meeting beating four subsequent winners on that occasion. Was poor next time on unsuitably soft ground at Musselburgh and hasn't been since. Presumably got jarred up on that occasion and will be interesting if seen again on soft ground. **WINNER OF HIS SECOND START SINCE, UNFORTUNATELY ONLY 4/6** **WINNER OF HIS NEXT START AT 11/4**
Sioux Chieftain - From the same race and another who could have done with softer conditions next time out. Trainer Tim Pitt has said he will be given a break to strengthen up and could be aimed at the Ascot Stakes next season. Will need a few wins before then to get into that race so look out for this horse over staying trips when the ground is soft.
Allnecessaryforce - Same York race, same story with having problems with firm ground next time. If seen again on soft ground will be interesting. **THREE STARTS LATER FINISHED JUST BEHIND ESTEAMING AGAIN, FORECAST PAID AROUND 3/1** Worth persevering with on soft ground.
Secret Talent - Only just beaten by Professor over 7f at Ascot earlier in the season and in hindsight faced an impossible task as that horse has won two listed races since. Apparently connections see this horse as a 6f/7f type that might prefer easier ground so a flop in the Britannia Handicap on firm ground is forgivable and he remains interesting.
Pay Freeze - From the same Ascot race as Secret Talent, he did best of those held up next time in a decent Goodwood handicap on bad ground and not seen since. Interesting back on better ground if we see him again.
Market Town - There were a couple of eyecatchers in the Brittania that looked as though they'd be suited by further, Red Avenger was one and he has won and finished second since, another was Market Town. Has several pieces of strong form previously and will be interesting to see where he turns up.
Cosseted - I've previously highlighted Secret Art off a mark of 85 (could go up slightly) so I've got to be interested in Cosseted who ran very well behind that horse in a Nottingham maiden. The easier ground probably suited that day but she hasn't been seen since. Another maiden run beckons before handicaps are an option but she's already run to a mark in the low 80s so her handicap mark will be very interesting after her next run. **WINNER OF HIS SECOND START SINCE AT 5/4** Hopefully handicap mark doesn't suffer too much as was given a mark of 74 before winning her maiden. After two narrow defeats and a poor effort in handicaps **WINS AGAIN AT 5/2**. Can go in again having now been stepped up in trip.
Shore Step - Won a Haydock handicap that has produced 4 next time out winners. Front runner so would be good to see him at a course that favours those up with the pace such as Chester (if well drawn), Pontefract, Windsor. **WINS AT 14/1 THEN 11/1**
Robot Boy - One of those subsequent winners behind Shore Step and ran well again when appearing to be drawn on the wrong side in huge field Newmarket handicap. Six furlongs and fast ground suits and he can win off his current mark. **WINS AT 11/4 THEN 10/3**
Auld Alliance - Stoute handicap debutants are rarely my thing but I fancied him at Sandown last time as she'd previously run well behind Waila and Repost over a distance far too short. Keeping that sort of company meant her opening handicap mark of 83 looked a lenient one. I worried about the firm ground though at Sandown and that appeared to be her undoing. It's interesting that she wore a visor for her maiden win so no surprise if that goes back on but a bit of a cut and a staying trip should see her winning a handicap headgear or no headgear. *Edit. Another entered tomorrow, this time at Haydock. Ground on the firm side and only four runners so I'll have to give the race a miss. *Edit2 Visor was back on but ground looked too firm again. Hopefully these firm ground flops will improve the price for when she meets easier ground.
Secondo - Handicap debut behind three well handicapped sorts at Leicester and worryingly off since but entered tomorrow at Haydock. I'd prefer him to be getting another furlong but either way he's interesting in his next few starts. **WINNER OF HIS FIRST START SINCE AT 15/8**
Secret Look - Has been very unlucky to contest some of the strongest 3yo sprints all season and then to be terribly drawn on the last two occasions at Chester. His Nottingham and York runs earlier in the season suggest he's very well handicapped and better than the bare result twice at Chester, he looks sure to win when not drawn in the car park in a race on softish ground over 5f or 6f. **WINNER OF HIS FIRST START SINCE AT 14/1**
*Addition* Great Hall - Was green when winning handicap debut last time out at Haydock and since then the second, third and fourth have all won on their next start. Should win again next time out and one of the best on this list.
*Addition* Magog - Still on the same mark as when going close against Salutation a few months back. Salutation has since gone up 12lbs in the handicap ratings and since Magog has had just the two starts you'd have to think he can improve plenty over the coming months. Likely to prefer softer ground. **WINNER OF HIS FIRST START SINCE AT 11/8**
Some of the above will probably never run again, every year I add countless horses to my horse alerts that in hindsight are some of the best handicapped animals around only for them never to see a racecourse again.
We are now getting to the stage in the season why 3yos are favoured against the older horses not only because they get a handy weight allowance but also because they are much less exposed. The middle distance 3yos get an especially nice weight allowance and they can improve further as they go up in trip so pay particular attention to those.
Please let me know if you've found any other races that have worked out well and I'm keen to hear how other 3yo backers have found this season in terms of finding winners. I've found myself having to handicap more and more maiden races in order to find future winners.