3:50 Perth Tips

Palm Beach is an 8-year-old gelding making a stable debut for Ben Pauling and ridden by Ben Jones. He has won two non-handicap hurdles off official marks of 119-124 and also won over 12f on the flat, so is clearly well handicapped. Ben has ridden 77 of Ben Pauling's winners since 2012, so they make a very good team. Palm Beach starts life with Pauling on a very appealing mark of just 77, as Ben Pauling's record with stable switchers is second to none: 20/121 wins and 41/121 places since 2012. Ben Jones has ridden three stable debutants for Ben Pauling since 2024, and 2 of the 3 won: Groovy Blue at 9-1 and Rocks Up Late at 11-2, and finished 8/11 on Squire Danagher. Palm Beach is my short-priced banker of the day.

Raby Mere is a sound choice in a bad race. Rushed out quick after winning on debut this season was a mistake, but has won both of the other runs, which in this field counts for a lot. Trainer and jockey combo are one of the best, and this to me looks very winnable.

Top Flight Century is a lightly raced 4-year-old gelding with just four starts. He posted a career-high RPR of 78 on handicap debut at Perth when beaten just 6 lengths under notable jockey booking Brian Hughes, 25+1 into 16-1. So he has his supporters. He's been dropped a 1lb despite the good effort, and this ex-Sir Mark Prescott horse is stepped up in trip off 76 with Joshua Thompson's 7lb claim. This should suit, being related to two smart middle-distance performers who posted career-high RPRs of 98-122. Top Flight Century looks like a knocking each-way possible if the gamble on Palm Beach is foiled. Put both in a RFC.

Would have been placed from this mark last time around here over shorter. This represents a drop in grade, so should be in the money at least.

The model I run suggests Malangen can win this one and cause an upset. This result has been driven by Malangen having the second highest RPR of the 12-horse race but has an official ranking that leaves him looking well treated off this mark. Has shown glimpses of coming back into form with figures of 60-543 and getting closer to getting over the line first. Last out 11 days ago, so race fitness shouldn't be a concern. Needs to find a bit more. Jockey relieves 3 lbs, which helps around this 2m 4f trip and is a prior course and distance winner, so knows how to get it done around this track. Model has issued a 'very low' stake indicator, which translates to a 0.5pt bet on a scale of 0-4.

Shantou Lucky has not been great since winning last September and taking on weight. While still not great this year, I am putting my hopes in the fact that he has dropped to an 83 and is now second up after wind surgery, which is when I would expect to see more improvement. EW 4P.

Blow A Fortune returns from a layoff after PU in December. The unexposed five-year-old is up against some experienced horses here, yet showed on the penultimate run she has ability. She stayed on late over 2m good at Ayr for 4th, less than a length behind the 2nd who is now rated 98. With the step up in trip likely to bring more from her and the assistance of Brian Hughes, there is fair EW value at 16/1 currently on offer.

Reverts to hurdling after a spell chasing and pointing. He has dropped to a career-low mark and while recent efforts are nothing to write home about, it was just over twelve months ago that he was finishing second over two miles at today's venue, and he's thirteen pounds lower today. He has won over further than today's trip so has no stamina issues, and conditions should suit. Given recent form, or lack of it, he is a speculative bet at best, but no world beaters in opposition, and his favorable racing weight is further reduced by his useful jockey's five-pound claim.