4:20 Perth Tips

Struggled over hurdles, but a switch of yard and a switch to fences looks like a good move off the back of a win in a point-to-point.

Completed a hat-trick of hurdles wins when winning at Stratford in May. Expected to go well on chasing debut and should be there or thereabouts.

Euchan Falls won consecutive hurdle races early in 2023, and those remain his only wins after several attempts, including thirteen in chases in which he has been 2nd five times, including here at Perth. Just in the handicap here off his lowest mark of 76 on ten stone two pounds, and could go close again in this competitive handicap in which several like to make the pace.

The model I run suggests Ballydangan can win this one. This result has been driven by Ballydangan having a comparably high RPR to the other runners in this 12-horse race, but an official ranking that leaves him looking fairly well treated off this mark. Goes out carrying over a stone less than current market favorite Bumpy Evans and even more weight lighter than the top weight. Has shown signs of form when coming first 19 days ago and looks to get over the line first again here. The model has issued a 'very low' stake indicator, which translates to a 0.5pt bet on a scale of 0-4.

This horse is one of the older horses in this race so he could be vulnerable to the younger and slightly more progressive rivals but, he's still running to a decent level. Better effort last time out which suggests he's possibly on the way back into some better form now so from what looks like a fair rating, he's one to consider.

Laura Morgan had a winner earlier here today, and she spoke well of the chances of Heaven Smart, who has Brian Hughes in the saddle. She had Adam Wedge in the plate on Glen Connet. Heaven Smart has just left Gary and Josh Moore's yard for Laura's stable, and the change of scenery can improve horses. The handicapper has him on 91, plus he has won at this distance.

At his best this 10 year old is a decent hurdler and chaser, showcasing his best effort for the current yard with a 3rd place finish over this C&D in May. Nevertheless, he was retreating when he unseated his rider 4 out at Hexham in his following race. While his strike rate leaves much to be desired, his historical form indicates he remains a contender for a place and could provide value at 28/1 each-way.