3:20 Perth Tips

The model I run suggests Nathan Wells can cause an upset in this one. This result has been driven by Nathan Wells having a comparably high RPR to the other 7 runners but has an official ranking that is the lowest. This subsequently means Nathan Wells goes out carrying the lowest amount of weight around this 2m 4f round trip. Last out 19 days ago, so race fitness shouldn't be a concern. The model has issued a 'very low' stake indicator, which translates to a 0.5pt bet on a scale of 0-4.

Trained by Robert Llewelyn, who rarely sends runners up to this course. Has two career wins, both in this class of race. Has won off a higher handicap mark. Finished second last time out at Uttoxeter, beaten a head over two and a half miles. This looks a weaker standard and can go one better today.

El Muchacho, with Sean Bowen in the plate for Olly Murphy. He was pulled up at Newton Abbot where he was at the back with Harry Cobden and stayed until Harry called it a day. Possibly something amiss and never gave true running. This afternoon, the Scottish air may be to his liking with Sean Bowen making a play from off the pace with a big run appearing.

Small each-way tip for this horse who runs for a trainer who's horses often run well at this course. This horse looked to find the longer distance too much of a stretch last time out, may well do better today now dropping back down a fair way in distance. This horse does have good form in the book at this cover over a similar distance to this.

You have to forgive a ridiculously poor run when Fav last time ('ran flat' according to the trainer) to side with Okavango Delta today. However, if he is on a going day, he has shown he can mix it in this class with a 2L win at Worcester in May and was raised only 4lb for that. Same mark at a track, distance, and going that should suit.

Coopers Cross is an interesting runner off a reduced mark. Ran well for a long way on return run and is entitled to come in for that. One to watch.