3:00 Newbury Tips

Expensive yearling who is making debut for a yard that has been in good form with its 2-year-olds. Will have been well prepared and should be there or thereabouts.

Finished in midfield on his racecourse debut over 6f at Leicester. Shaped as though further would suit ideally, but kept to that trip last time on the AW at Kempton. He left that debut form well behind, finishing a close 2nd. Goes up in trip now and is no forlorn hope.

Plenty of encouragement at home, and this horse can strike on debut for Roger Varian, who is in fine form and can continue that here.

The market is struggling to split the powerful yard principals, and that suggests to me this race has a more open look to it. Of the principals, Morbeh made some appeal at opening prices but has shortened up now, so I’d be happy to take a small play on something else, and at a bigger price Gewan made appeal. Balding is 6/19 for the owner, who has had 4 runners since 2021 on a 2/4 strike rate. He does well sending horses here first time out, being 15/47 a place, which betters his place strike rate overall with first-time 2yo’s. He’s had just 4 first-time-out 2yo winners in the last year from 93 efforts, which is clearly well below average for him overall. He’s getting the hang of Night Of Thunder progeny though, being 7 from 10 with them in 2023. It’s a guess, but all things considered, the price looks good.

Lost Signal is a 2yo colt trained by Richard Hannon, who won this race last year. Lost Signal is out of a dam, Smile At Me, sired by Galileo, who has yet to produce a winner. However, her dam and grand dam produced multiple winners, amassing 24 wins, which includes some useful sorts. Curly (sired by Galileo) is rated 108, and more notably, Danehill Dancer is rated 118, a top-class 2yo, then a smart sprinter who went 1-1-1-2, winning two Group 1's at the Curragh and Leopardstown as a 2yo. Lost Signal could produce an effort to play a big part in proceedings today for Richard Hannon who will have his colt primed and ready.

Was a little disappointing on debut when only 13th of 18. Should be better than that race showed, and with improvement likely for having had that run, holds an each-way chance.