4:15 Epsom Downs Tips

A 4-time winner who has only finished out of the frame once in the last 9 starts. Won over this course and distance last September on soft ground and won well over this trip last time out at Chester last month, so looks a leading contender.

Valvano is a progressive 4-year-old with form reading well in context. Trained by Beckett and ridden by Hector Crouch, he’s a grinder who keeps finding more. Has placed consistently and now meets ideal conditions. Looks very solid and has less question marks than others near the top of the market.

I'm a big fan of trainer Dylan Cunha, and his 5yo looks progressive at this trip, despite the 7lb rise for his win over CD in the Great Metropolitan here in April. He was third in this last year when ridden to get the trip, and with Oisin Murphy in the plate, there'll be much more confidence this year.

Candyman Stan has shown a lot of promise for trainer Andrew Balding (SR 18%). Has won three of just six starts with all three wins coming at (very close to) the 1m4f trip. Has gone clear of his field on a couple of occasions. His last win was at Class 2 level and must continue to progress with a 5lbs rise but has looked pretty decent so far. Jason Watson, having ridden him to success the last twice, retains the ride.

Their Lto run was a big improvment on return run which was here @ Epsom. However, is a C/D winner so we know they handle the course and 2 wins last season were on soft/heavy ground so if thunderstorms do come, then that is going to be a big advantage to us. Good jockey who does well for this stable up and very shrewd training duo have done well here last 5 seasons, making current 16/1 solid Ew value in the race.

Former Aiden O'Brien horse, who has seemingly been slowly coming to hand for the Hughes yard. Significantly overlooked by my estimations in this.

Dream Harder had not won in a long time until winning at Chester last week in a C4. But earlier this year, he was twice running to third off an 87 in C2. With today's 85, he could be worth an EW 5P chance.

A mark of 100 looks high enough in a handicap as competitive as this, but Maxi King spent most of 2024 running in pattern races, and the handicaps he did contest wouldn't have given him the best chance of winning due to race conditions. Soft ground is a huge plus for him, and he goes really well fresh, having won off breaks of 136 and 386 days on his last two reappearances. He's 2 lbs lower than when 8th at Doncaster in November, but crucially, I think this could be the time to catch him. With plenty of pace on offer, the setup of the race looks ideal too.

There are 8 horses in this field that won LTO, so I'm expecting a competitive race tomorrow. Thankfully, my selection is among the LTO winners. This horse has serious ability, and if he can overcome the steep raised mark (+7lbs) and going up in class, then he has a chance.

Jedd O'Keefe trains at Middleham in North Yorkshire and sends Something on the 526 miles round trip to race at Epsom in The Northern Dancer Handicap. Something, I am told by a yard contact, has been working well and won last time out at Ripon. My contact says Jedd is 'bullish' about the horse who steps up in grade here. He has a task bigger than he has met before. Jedd sending him this distance makes an each-way appeal with Hollie Doyle onboard.

I’m going to take a wild swing on the old boy here in TORCELLO at 40/1 with 5 places on offer. The veteran by Born To Sea is a course winner, coming on his only start here back in 2019 on heavy ground and it looks as though he’ll get soft ground today. He absolutely thrives under these conditions (33% SR, A/E 2.55 on good to soft or worse) and the trip is of no concern (28% SR, A/E 2.5 in the UK) plus he won on reappearance last season, albeit in a lower grade. The gelding isn’t the most consistent but is running off his lowest mark for a few years to make life easier and a number of positive stats boost claims; most notable being S Lycett’s 24% SR (A/E 1.78) with runners keeping to the same trip and D Gilbert’s 21% SR (A/E 1.84) with Irish-born runners.