Canadian Prime Minister Betting Odds

Electing a new Prime Minister is the most significant moment in the Canadian democratic process, and, whenever it’s time to do so, involves the input and participation of every Canadian citizen. There’s a reason why you see so many commercials and voting campaigns asking you to get out there and fulfill your civic duty! However, if civic duty isn’t quite enough to make Canadian electoral politics interesting, why not place a wager on the outcome?

It doesn’t matter who you support politically, as there’s bound to be some action for you. Whether you normally vote Conservative, Liberal, NDP, or anything else in between, all it takes is finding the right betting lines. We’re going to provide you with more detail on the Canadian Prime Minister betting odds in this article, and hopefully leave you in a position to turn a profit.  

What is Betting on The Canadian Prime Minister

If you’ve ever placed any type of sports bet in the past, you already know how Canadian Prime Minister betting works. The only difference is that, instead of betting on the money line of an NFL game, you can try to predict who’s going to win the upcoming election. Americans love betting on their presidential elections every four years, and now Canadians can get in on the action themselves by taking a punt on which of the candidates will successfully head up the next government.

There are always going to be people who say the race is over before it starts, and others will stick resolutely with the party that matches up best with their political beliefs. Really, though, casually wagering isn’t quite so complicated — you might feasibly vote a different way than you bet. All there is to do is find a reasonable line and put some money down to try your luck during the next Canadian elections. 

The Canadian Prime Minister Betting Markets

As we’ve already mentioned, Canadian PM betting is much like betting on any other sporting event. You can put all of your money down on one pick, or you can spread it out over a few different ones, it doesn’t matter. It’s all up to you at the end of the day, just remember to only bet money that you can afford to lose, and never go overboard. Contrary to popular belief, betting on politics isn’t any more predictable than betting on sports.

It helps to understand the markets themselves though, and that’s what we’ll go over in the next section. You can try to guess the overall winner, the majority vote-getter, or plenty of other outcomes that are usually represented in the different Canadian Prime Minister betting markets.  

Winning Party Betting Market

Arguably the most straightforward betting market is predicting the winning party. This is where you place a bet on who’s going to win overall, as opposed to some of the other “technical wins” that come with Canadian elections — like a PM leading a coalition, for example. You can choose between most of the major parties, and some sportsbooks will even offer the smaller options (like the New Blue party) at significantly higher odds. For the most part, though, you’ll want to stick with either the Liberals or Conservatives. 

Many people prefer this betting market because it can be easier to guess who’s going to win the whole thing. It also makes it a simple choice; either they win, or they don’t. You don’t have to worry about how many seats or won, or if the leader wins their home riding (or anything else of that nature).

To Get a Majority or No

Winning a majority in Canadian elections is when one party wins most (over 50%) of the available seats in Parliament, and in doing so forms a government that can govern as a majority, without the support of other parties. For example, Trudeau won a majority back in 2015, with his other victories coming in the form of minority governments. It’s almost like betting on a blowout in baseball – if you think a certain party is going to win outright and by a big margin, crowning a PM without negotiating with the other parties, this is the market for you. 

Leader to Win Home Riding? 

This is a smaller market, where you bet on whether a party leader will win their home riding. For example, the Conservative Party, led by Erin O’Toole, lost the 2021 federal election, but O’Toole himself still ended up winning re-election in his home riding of Durham, allowing him to come back to parliament as an MP in the House of Commons, though not as Prime Minister, as he and the Conservatives would’ve hoped. Finding these kinds of betting lines may not be easy, but it can be worth it if you plan on making smaller bets. They tend to offer much “juicer” lines when compared to just winning the election or even winning the majority. 

How to Bet on The Canadian Prime Minister

When the playoffs roll around and you want to place a bet, you probably have sportsbooks you know and trust. Problem is, traditional bookmakers and sites like FanDuel and DraftKings may not have lines for federal elections at the moment. However, be sure to check back in for updates. You may have to search for a website that offers a strong emphasis on political betting odds, which Betway has been known to provide in the past.

The Canadian Prime Minister Candidates to Know

You may not be an expert in Canadian politics, and that’s okay. This next section is going to cover some of the most popular political parties and candidates so that you can place your bets with more confidence.

Doing your own research is always our recommendation, but this section should provide more than enough info to understand the basics of who’s the favourite to win, and who might be a worthy underdog bet.

The Liberals

Founded in 1867, the Liberal Party of Canada is currently in office with Justin Trudeau as the Prime Minister. They also hold more seats than any other party in Parliament, but some would say that Canadians are due for a change. While the Liberals have enjoyed consistent, strong support in the past decade, they’ve seen their popularity drop slightly due to a few minor scandals, flagging economic performance, and overall weariness around Trudeau’s leadership. Winning a third election is a difficult task, and one Trudeau may struggle to pull off.

European Parliament from EU, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Of course, Liberals have historically been the natural governing party of Canada, and you can expect them to win again soon — though not every time. As we always say, only time will tell, and the best thing you can do is go with your gut. 

The Conservatives

The Conservative Party of Canada was founded in 2003 following the merger of two other parties, and is currently led by Pierre Poilievre. He’s a name that you’ll likely hear often, as he’s the new face of the Tory party, and the latest hopeful to unseat Justin Trudeau. The Conservatives enjoyed three federal election victories under Stephen Harper, but have failed to repeat their success in recent years, with Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole both failing to usurp Justin Trudeau.

Manning Centre c/o: Jake Wright, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

They have more support this year than they have in the past, and there’s a real chance that they may finally take home the win again. Whether you believe that or not, they’ll likely have lower odds of doing so when compared to the Liberals. 

The NDP

NDP stands for New Democratic Party, which represents a younger, more progressive strain in Canadian politics, with a historically left-wing policy agenda. They are led by Jagmeet Singh, who has further pushed the party toward embracing young people, minorities, and the working class. The NDP has also made climate change a priority, which has earned them plaudits among progressives, students, and environmentalists. At the same time, they remain at the fringes of the Canadian political scene at the moment. With only 25 seats in the House of Commons, the NDP isn’t in contention to earn a real electoral victory, though they may hope to regain the status of Official Opposition, which they last held under Jack Layton.

Olivia Chow from Toronto, Canada, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

If you’re looking to bet on this party, we would suggest keeping the bet amount low. The odds of an NDP PM are very, very low, so you may be better off betting on other aspects of their performance. Nonetheless, the most profitable betting lines will come from parties like the NDP, and if you think it’s a possibility, you could consider it.

Everyone Else

The number of parties in Canada is growing annually, as there are new ones like the PPC popping up that people are willing to support. The Bloc Quebecois is another party that has to be mentioned, although the chances of them winning any sort of election are zero (they only contest seats in Quebec). The Green Party of Canada has a nationwide presence and is currently led by its interim leader Amita Kuttner. However, it only has 2 sets in the House of Commons; as such, you can expect them to focus on expanding that number, rather than winning anything. These aren’t parties that you should bet on winning the election, rather, see if you can find lines focusing on how many seats they’ll win, or whether they’ll improve on their last performance.

You’ve got to be realistic when betting on politics, and for the most part, the top two parties are the only ones you should place your bets on. If history has taught us anything, it’s that the smaller parties hardly ever stand a fighting chance.  

Things to Consider When Betting on The Canadian Prime Minister

Not sure how to rank your bets? If you have more than one party in mind, use these tips to figure out which one is going to give you the best shot at winning some money. It can be hard to pick just one, but nobody is stopping you from placing multiple bets. 

Popularity

You could say that politics is a popularity contest of sorts, and being the more popular candidate will serve you quite well. For example, the Liberals have won twice in a row now, and that’s because the Liberal party “brand” is widely popular among Canadians. That popularity might be dwindling nowadays though, and if there were ever going to be a transition into a new party, now could be the time. This means that you might be able to confidently bet on the Conservatives if you feel like the Liberals won’t win this time around.

Look at the news and always stay in the know. Party politics can change on a daily basis and popularity is going to come along with it.

History

The fact that Liberals have maintained a relatively steady hold on power through the decades (with the exception of the Harper years) is certainly some indication of how things often go. You may think that there’s a chance for one of the smaller parties to win, but how often has that happened in the past? The best thing you can do is look at the previous winners and try to create a viable bet based on a combination of your sense of the present, and a good sense of historical trends. While other bettors are focused on trying to find underdogs, you can just put more money on a significant favourite.

As we’ve said numerous times before, betting isn’t supposed to be easy. If it were easy to pick winners, we’d all be rolling in cash.  With the right amount of research though, you can maximize your odds of picking a winner.

Betting Odds

Some parties just aren’t going to have reasonable odds offered, and that’s okay. If a bookmaker is offering the Liberals to win at -1000, that may be too steep. If you can find them at a more reasonable line (closer to -200), you’re in a much better spot. Some websites will offer different lines when compared to others as well, so you have to shop around a little bit to figure out which one is the best option.

It’s almost like grocery shopping, as you never want to “overpay” for one of the bets you’ve placed.  Once you’ve found betting odds that you’re happy with, keep searching (if you have time, of course) until you’re certain that it’s the best available online.