You know how punters get lost in too much data or bet blindly? I break down the stats and trends so you can feel confident you’re betting with more than just gut instinct.
YORK (Ebor Meeting) SIGNFICANT TRENDS(10 Years)
Odds
The Ebor meeting has seen 15 odds-on favourites come to post and 9
return as winners. Despite the 60% strike rate for them they have
made a slightly negative LSP, and they should be treated with
caution.
Handicaps
If you had backed every horse over 20/1 in Ebor handicaps you would
have broken even, so despite their lengthy odds it may be that
trainers are holding back their horses to aim them at the big
prizes on offer.
Ditto for horses off the track for over 57 days. From 126 runs they
have provided 7 winners but at a profit of +4.00LSP so shrewd
trainers who know their horses has a lenient mark obviously don't
want to ruin it for a smaller prize.
Horses under penalty's have 5 wins from 34 runs at a +24.00LSP.
Clearly trainer's wouldn't waste a horse in under a penalty for
such a big prize if it weren't capable of defying it.
Trainer's who have 20%+ strike rates at the track have been
profitable with 7 wins from 63 runs at +20.50LSP. Clearly trainers
who target this track for big wins target it well.
Highlights
- Bigger priced runners (not shown their best just yet
perhaps?)
- Off the track for 57 days (may have been kept on a mark)
- Carrying a penalty (Trainer's must be sure of a good run if
allowing them to carry more weight)
- Trainer 20%+ strike rate (know how to produce on for this
course)
2 Year Olds
In the nurseries, 7 winners from 58 runners have produced a
+45.00LSP when returning to the track within 14 days of their last
run.
Also for nurseries good jockeys are invaluable to juveniles as they
require a steady hand and track experience to produce them right.
No surprise that a jockey who has a 15%+ strike rate at this track
has provided 4 winners from 9 runners.
In the mixed juvenile races Fillies have bagged 4 wins from 49
runners which is pretty much in keeping with the statistical strike
rate for those races, however have generated a +31.50LSP and as
such must be undervalued in the market.
Highlights
- Returning less than 14 days after a run in Nurseries.
- Jockey with 15% course SR in Nurseries.
- Fillies in mixed juvenile races.
(Ebor Meeting Stats Only)
Trainers
W Haggas has had 4 wins from 9 runs in 2yo Stakes Races (44.44% @
+14.00LSP)
J Fanshawe has had 2 wins from 2 runs in 2yo Group Stakes Races
(100.00%)
D Nicholls has had 3 wins from 5 runs in 3yo Only Handicap Races
(60.00% @ +27.00LSP) (All at Sprint Distances!)
Jockeys
J Spencer has 6 wins from 23 runs in long distance (1m4f+)
handicaps (26.00% @ +56.00LSP).
J Fortune has 3 wins (3 x 2nd, 1 x 3rd) from 14 runs in Long
Distance Class 1 Stakes (21.00% @ +26.00LSP)
K Fallon has 5 wins (3 x 2nd, 3 x 3rd) from 21 runs in Long
Distance Class 1 Stakes (24.00% @ +17.00LSP)
