York Significant Trends and Stats

Published: Aug 23, 10:57am Last Updated: Mar 26, 3:10pm drogerson on Horse Racing 0 Comments 1984 Views

YORK (Ebor Meeting) SIGNFICANT TRENDS(10 Years)
The Ebor meeting has seen 15 odds-on favourites come to post and 9 return as winners. Despite the 60% strike rate for them they have made a slightly negative LSP, and they should be treated with caution.
If you had backed every horse over 20/1 in Ebor handicaps you would have broken even, so despite their lengthy odds it may be that trainers are holding back their horses to aim them at the big prizes on offer.
Ditto for horses off the track for over 57 days. From 126 runs they have provided 7 winners but at a profit of +4.00LSP so shrewd trainers who know their horses has a lenient mark obviously don't want to ruin it for a smaller prize.
Horses under penalty's have 5 wins from 34 runs at a +24.00LSP. Clearly trainer's wouldn't waste a horse in under a penalty for such a big prize if it weren't capable of defying it.
Trainer's who have 20%+ strike rates at the track have been profitable with 7 wins from 63 runs at +20.50LSP. Clearly trainers who target this track for big wins target it well.
- Bigger priced runners (not shown their best just yet perhaps?)
- Off the track for 57 days (may have been kept on a mark)
- Carrying a penalty (Trainer's must be sure of a good run if allowing them to carry more weight)
- Trainer 20%+ strike rate (know how to produce on for this course)
2 Year Olds
In the nurseries, 7 winners from 58 runners have produced a +45.00LSP when returning to the track within 14 days of their last run.
Also for nurseries good jockeys are invaluable to juveniles as they require a steady hand and track experience to produce them right. No surprise that a jockey who has a 15%+ strike rate at this track has provided 4 winners from 9 runners.
In the mixed juvenile races Fillies have bagged 4 wins from 49 runners which is pretty much in keeping with the statistical strike rate for those races, however have generated a +31.50LSP and as such must be undervalued in the market.
- Returning less than 14 days after a run in Nurseries.
- Jockey with 15% course SR in Nurseries.
- Fillies in mixed juvenile races.
(Ebor Meeting Stats Only)
W Haggas has had 4 wins from 9 runs in 2yo Stakes Races (44.44% @ +14.00LSP)
J Fanshawe has had 2 wins from 2 runs in 2yo Group Stakes Races (100.00%)
D Nicholls has had 3 wins from 5 runs in 3yo Only Handicap Races (60.00% @ +27.00LSP) (All at Sprint Distances!)
J Spencer has 6 wins from 23 runs in long distance (1m4f+) handicaps (26.00% @ +56.00LSP).
J Fortune has 3 wins (3 x 2nd, 1 x 3rd) from 14 runs in Long Distance Class 1 Stakes (21.00% @ +26.00LSP)
K Fallon has 5 wins (3 x 2nd, 3 x 3rd) from 21 runs in Long Distance Class 1 Stakes (24.00% @ +17.00LSP)


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