Is It Time For Punters To Ignore Cheltenham Festival Trends?

Every year there are certain stats and trends which seem to repeat themselves and often they are great pointers in finding winners at Cheltenham. The National Hunt season has been disrupted frequently this season with the weather making it difficult for trainers to keep to set schedules, and as a result there are many horses that have missed intended engagements. So what effect is this going to have at the festival?
1. Recent Run One stat that is thrown up every year is the need for horses to have had a recent run, or at least to have raced in the same calendar year. Now obviously this is dependant on the horse as some horses will perform much better when fresh and a recent run would scupper their chances. Best Mate returned to win his third Gold Cup after an 81 day break, whereas on the other hand Our Armageddon won the Jewson just 2 days after pulling up in the Arkle. As a general rule it is often preferable to have had a run in the lead up to the festival; this year it may pay to not give as much weight to the recent run theory. With the amount of missed engagements throughout the season there will be some horses that are likely to have a rushed preparation, needing an extra race than would usually be needed at this stage of the campaign.
This season it will be interesting to see how the differing approach of the trainers throughout the season impacts upon the festival results. During the adverse weather conditions some trainers continued to run horses even in the unfavourable conditions. Others chose not to run their horses and instead tried to do as much work on the gallops at home as the weather would allow. Whichever approach the yards took it leaves a conundrum on how to approach the next month or so. Those horses who have had there runs may have race fitness, but they could have also left there festival races behind in the testing ground. Those horses who coped in the conditions are likely to have gained confidence from racing and will have had a smoother preparation up until this point. Preferable? Possibly but it could prove quite a shock to the system if they find themselves back on better ground at the festival, against fresher horses in much quicker run races.
Nicky Henderson in particular has been very keen to keep his leading starts away from the tough conditions. Bobs Worth has had just the one start this season and goes to the Gold Cup on the back of what will be a 104 day break. Long Run will be trying to do what Kauto Star managed twice by going straight from the King George to the Gold Cup, rather than having a prep race in soft ground.

2. Cheltenham Form Following on from the recent run theory this is perhaps the most relevant trend year after year. Horses returning to the festival often have a distinct advantage over those how have performed poorly there before, or those who have never run before. The whole occasion is very unique and some horses cope with the preliminaries and atmosphere more than others. Horses are trained with Cheltenham in mind all season and those who have performed under these conditions before may have an even greater advantage this year.
Preparation is important for a horse and to win a race at Cheltenham they need almost everything to go right for them. This is illustrated when you look at horses falling or pulling up on their most recent start prior to the festival.

Cheltenham Festival Performance (2004-2012)

Result Last Time Out	Runs	Wins	Strike Rate
Pulled Up	191	5	2.62%
Fell	156	4	2.56%

I think previous festival form will once again prove to be a key trend at the festival. There have been many disruptions throughout the season but one thing that won't change, no matter what ground there is at the festival, is the unique atmosphere and blistering pace of the races. The horses who have proven that they excel under those conditions will have a big advantage this year as preparation, whether good or bad, makes no difference to a horse which cant cope with everything that goes with a festival race
Although Cheltenham form might be important it is dangerous to take form from outside the festival as proof that a horse will enjoy the experience. This season especially, the meetings staged at Cheltenham have been run in very testing ground, and the ground at Cheltenham does get very heavy. Those races are unlikely to give too much indication as to how a horse may run in March if the ground is better and as a result a lot of the usual trial races may not provide the necessary clues.

Horse	Runs at Cheltenham	Wins	Places	Each-Way	Festival Form
Rock On Ruby	5	2	2	80%	21
Sizing Europe	5	3	1	80%	0112
Cue Card	6	2	2	67%	142
Menorah	6	3	0	50%	153