The Fate of the Festival Favourites

This is a look at how the Cheltenham Festival Favourites have feared at the festival in an attempt to see if there are any particular stats or trends that can help us as the greatest sporting occasion approaches. 

For this piece I will only be going back over the last 20 years and will be concentrating on the Cheltenham Championship races and ignoring the handicaps.

That still gives us fourteen races to look at that can hopefully give us a few pointers and insights as we take on the bookies. 

• Supreme Novice Hurdle
• Arkle
• Champion Hurdle
• Mares Hurdle
• Neptune
• RSA
• Queen Mother
• Bumper
• JLT
• Ryanair
• World Hurdle
• Triumph
• Albert Bartlett
• Gold Cup

Use this Cheltenham statistics blog in conjunction with How to Find Winners - 101 Tips to Choose A Winning Horse Racing Bet.

Day One (Tuesday)

Supreme Novices' Hurdle 

• 5 Favourites have won the Supreme Novice Hurdle since 2000. 
• All have been trained in Ireland.
• 7 Favourites have been placed.
• 13 favourites have been unplaced.
• There have been 4 races where there were joint-favourites - 2008 (3), 2014 (2), 2017 (2), 2019 (2). 
• The average price of the Supreme Novice hurdle favourites is 7/2.

Arkle

• 11 Favourites have won the Arkle since 2000.
• Generally, it goes to a top trainer. 
• 4 Favourites have been placed.
• 8 favourites have been unplaced. 
• There has been 1 race with joint-favourites - 2014.
• The average price of the Arkle favourite is just under 2/1.

Champion Hurdle

• 13 favourites have won since 2000.
• A decent race for favourites.
• 4 favourites have placed.
• 7 favourites have been unplaced.
• There has been 1 race with joint-favourites - 2005.
• The average price of the Champion Hurdle favourite is 6/4

OLBG Mares Hurdle

• 8 favourites have won since 2008.
• Willie Mullins has had the favourite every year except twice.
• 5 favourites have been placed.
• 3 favourites have been unplaced - two which fell. 
• The average price of of the Mares Hurdle favourite is 6/5

Summary

• The Supreme is a race to be avoided if you are looking for a banker fav to get you off to a good start, no winning fav in the last 5 years.
• The Champion Hurdle as the main race of the day would normally see the most money bet.  
• The Arkle tends to have short prices and be a lot less competitive, with two or three obvious candidates, including the fav.
• The Mares Hurdle is a mixed bag but Willie Mullins runners should always be noted.

Day Two (Wednesday)

Neptune Novices' Hurdle

• 9 Favourites have won since 2000.
• 9 Favourites have been placed.
• Only 5 have not placed out of 23.
• There has been 1 race with joint-favourites - 2005 (both unplaced).
• The average price of the Neptune Favourite is just under 5/2.

RSA Chase

• 9 Favourites have won since 2000.
• A mixture of UK and Irish trainers have shared the victories over the last 24 years.
• 6 Favourites have been placed.
• 8 Favourites have been unplaced.
• The average price of all the RSA Chase Favourite since 2000 is 9/4. 

Queen Mother Champion Chase 

• 9 Favourites have won since 2000.
• The QM Champion chase tends to have the smallest field of the four championship races.
• 5 Favourites have been placed.
• 10 Favourites have been unplaced.
• The average price of the Queen Mother Champions Chase Favourite is 6/5. 

Champion Bumper

• 5 Favourites have won since 2000.
• A poor race for favourites compared to other Cheltenham Non-Handicap races. 
• 10 favourites have placed.
• 8 Favourites have been unplaced.
• The average price of the Champion Bumper Favourite is 7/2

Summary

• The Queen Mother Champions Chase has been less competitive and with smaller fields in recent years. 
• The Champions Bumper nearly always has a "talking horse", it doesn't always walk the talk, with only 4 favs going in. 

Day Three (Thursday)

JLT Novices Chase

• 3 Winning outright Favourites from 10 runnings of the race since 2015. 
• There was one race with 3 joint-favourites - 2016 -when Black Hercules won. 
• 3 Favourites have placed.
• 2 Favourites have been unplaced.
• The average price of the JLT Novices Chase favourite since 2015 is just over 2/1. 

Ryanair Chase

• 7 Winning Favourites since Ryanair started sponsoring the race. (2005)
• A race farmed by the top trainers.
• 8 Favourites have placed. 
• 5 Favourites have been unplaced.
• One race had joint-favourites -2006 - when Impek and Fondmote were both sent off at 100/30, Impek finished 3rd.  
• The average price of Ryanair Chase Favourites is 2/1

World Hurdle

• 9 Winning Favourites from 2000.
• A race for returning champions.
• 8 placed Favourites from 2000.
• 7 Favourites have been unplaced.
• The average price of World Hurdle Favourites is just under 7/4.  

Summary

• The JLT with 4 winning favs out of 10 looks a race where following the fav is advisable, especially compared to the Supreme. 
• When will we see a "second-tier" trainer win the Ryanair?
• The World Hurdle rarely sees a big priced winner, its the head of the market we should be looking at.  

Day Four (Friday)

Triumph Hurdle

• 7 winning Favourites from twenty since 2000. (Goshen unlucky in 2020).
• Often a race where the top trainers have two entries, look to second string. 
• Long spells of losing favs.
• 5 placed Favourites from twenty. 
• 12 unplaced Favourites. (very high)
• The average SP of the Triumph Hurdle Favourite is 7/2.

Albert Bartlett

• 4 winning Favourites since 2005 - No winning fav since 2013.
• The Albert Bartlett is the worst recent race for Favourites from all the non-handicap races. 
• 5 placed Favourites since 2005.
• 10 unplaced Favourites since 2005.
• 2008 saw joint-favourites, both beaten. 
• The average SP of the Potato race favourite is just under 11/4.

Cheltenham Gold Cup

• 12 winning Favourites since 2000.
• A good race for favourites with a 50% strike rate for the horse at the top of the market since 2000. 
• 4 placed Favourites since 2000.
• 9 unplaced Favourites since 2000.
• The average SP of Cheltenham Gold Cup Favourites is around 5/2. 

Conclusion 

So it appears that the record of the favourites isn't that great at the festival despite everyone including the bookies having all the form to hand. 

You can view from the last 6 years (2015 -2024) the number of winners from the above races for each year.