Andy Powell Expert Guide
You know how punters get lost in too much data or bet blindly? I break down the stats and trends so you can feel confident you’re betting with more than just gut instinct.
Dosage Profile of 2013 Coventry Stakes contenders in comparison
to previous winners of the race Dosage Profile (Brilliant -
Intermediate - Classic - Solid - Professional)
The dosage profile is a series of five numbers which shows how many points this horse has inherited from their sires in each category. The Brilliant and Intermediate category relate to a horses speed, whilst the Classic and Solid categories relate to stamina
Dosage Index - Calculates a ratio of the horses speed to its stamina The general rule is the higher the number, the speedier the horse. Eg. 2.0 means the horse has twice as much speed as stamina
Centre of Distribution - The COD is another indicator of speed and stamina. A positive COD indicates a preference for speed, whereas a negative COD indicates he they have more stamina points
Won last year by this years 2000 Guineas winner Dawn Approach this
race often acts as a springboard for very smart performers and this
year on paper looks to be a good renewal. It is very likely that
the winner will be trained by Richard Hannon or Aiden O'Brien who
both saddle three runners each, occupying 6 of the top 7 places in
the betting.
Stubbs would appear to be the Ballydoyle first choice on jockey bookings but as seen so many times before their other runners should not be underestimated. Stubbs has three runs under his belt and is the most experienced of the trio. He was a comfortable winner of a Listed contest on his most recent start an fast ground and his place at the head of the market is probably warranted. He is a strong travelling type and expect to see Joseph O'Brien trying to weave his way through the field late on in the race.
Ryan Moore rode Ruler Of The World to victory in the Derby and he seemingly has a good chance of riding another winner for Aiden O'Brien with SIR JOHN HAWKINS. A son of Henrythenavigator, who won this race as a 2 year old, he won on his sole start to date and looks bred to make up into a nice performer. His dosage profile compares favourably with previous winners and indicates he has plenty of class and a requisite amount of speed for this test.
It was thought that War Command would not race at Royal Ascot and instead wait for a Group race at the Curragh, but he features amongst the declarations. Connections had said they thought it would come too soon for him but the fact he is entered perhaps indicates he has been showing them enough at home to warrant the trip over, and given they have two strong chances already he is therefore perhaps a bigger price than he should be. An American bred son of War Front, he showed plenty of pace when making a winning debut last time out and should be suited by fast underfoot conditions. He also shows a strong dosage profile for this race and both he and Sir John Hawkins with just one run behind them are open to any amount of improvement.
The Richard Hannon trio are headed by Championship who is the choice of stable jockey Richard Hughes. He overcame trouble in running to make a winning start to his career at Newbury in May and will be hoping to emulate Strong Suit, who won this race for the same connections back in 2010. A son of Exceed and Excel, he was always likely to make up into a precocious two year old and he is a leading player in this race.
Thunder Strike has done little wrong in his career to date and won a Listed race well enough last time out despite racing awkwardly towards the end of the race. He has improved with each start and although his pedigree is not the most flashily, he certainly has a lot of pace and there could be more to come from him. The other Richard Hannon runner is Wahaab who was a convincing enough winner on debut despite showing signs of greenness. Paul Hanagan has passed over him in favour of Mawfoor which is a point to note but similarly to the Aiden O'Brien team, it would be unwise to assume a ‘third string' is in a race like this to just make up the numbers.
The dosage profile is a series of five numbers which shows how many points this horse has inherited from their sires in each category. The Brilliant and Intermediate category relate to a horses speed, whilst the Classic and Solid categories relate to stamina
Dosage Index - Calculates a ratio of the horses speed to its stamina The general rule is the higher the number, the speedier the horse. Eg. 2.0 means the horse has twice as much speed as stamina
Centre of Distribution - The COD is another indicator of speed and stamina. A positive COD indicates a preference for speed, whereas a negative COD indicates he they have more stamina points
| Horse | Dosage Profile | Dosage Points | Dosage Index | COD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Three Valleys | 5-1-15-6-9 | 36 | 0.6 | -0.36 |
| Iceman | 3-1-17-1-0 | 22 | 1.32 | 0.27 |
| Red Clubs | 1-4-15-0-0 | 20 | 1.67 | 0.3 |
| Hellvelyn | 2-6-8-0-0 | 16 | 3 | 0.62 |
| Henrythenavigator | 13-3-26-12-0 | 54 | 1.16 | 0.31 |
| Art Connoisseur | 2-3-14-1-0 | 20 | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| Canford Cliffs | 1-0-7-2-0 | 10 | 0.82 | 0 |
| Strong Suit | 12-0-17-1-2 | 32 | 1.78 | 0.59 |
| Power | 2-3-10-3-0 | 18 | 1.25 | 0.22 |
| Dawn Approach | 2-4-8-2-0 | 16 | 1.67 | 0.38 |
| Average | 4-3-14-3-1 | 24.4 | 1.477 | 0.263 |
| Horse | Dosage Profile | Dosage Points | Dosage Index | COD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahamian Heights | 3-3-6-0-0 | 12 | 3 | 0.75 |
| Championship | 3-2-7-0-0 | 12 | 2.43 | 0.67 |
| Dubawi Fun | 4-6-11-0-1 | 22 | 2.38 | 0.55 |
| Jallota | 2-2-8-0-0 | 12 | 2 | 0.5 |
| Lanark | 3-3-8-0-0 | 14 | 2.5 | 0.64 |
| Mawfoor | 2-1-8-5-2 | 18 | 0.64 | -0.22 |
| Parbold | 3-4-9-0-0 | 16 | 2.56 | 0.62 |
| Riverboat Springs | 4-1-5-0-0 | 10 | 3 | 0.9 |
| Rogue Wave | 7-0-9-0-0 | 16 | 2.56 | 0.88 |
| Rosso Corsa | 7-1-16-2-0 | 26 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| Sir John Hawkins | 8-2-20-8-0 | 38 | 1.11 | 0.26 |
| Stubbs | 3-3-9-0-1 | 16 | 1.91 | 0.44 |
| Thrtypointstothree | 3-2-9-2-0 | 16 | 1.46 | 0.38 |
| Thunder Strike | 1-1-3-1-0 | 6 | 1.4 | 0.33 |
| Wahaab | 2-9-8-0-1 | 20 | 3 | 0.55 |
| War Command | 2-6-21-0-1 | 30 | 1.61 | 0.27 |
Stubbs would appear to be the Ballydoyle first choice on jockey bookings but as seen so many times before their other runners should not be underestimated. Stubbs has three runs under his belt and is the most experienced of the trio. He was a comfortable winner of a Listed contest on his most recent start an fast ground and his place at the head of the market is probably warranted. He is a strong travelling type and expect to see Joseph O'Brien trying to weave his way through the field late on in the race.
Ryan Moore rode Ruler Of The World to victory in the Derby and he seemingly has a good chance of riding another winner for Aiden O'Brien with SIR JOHN HAWKINS. A son of Henrythenavigator, who won this race as a 2 year old, he won on his sole start to date and looks bred to make up into a nice performer. His dosage profile compares favourably with previous winners and indicates he has plenty of class and a requisite amount of speed for this test.
It was thought that War Command would not race at Royal Ascot and instead wait for a Group race at the Curragh, but he features amongst the declarations. Connections had said they thought it would come too soon for him but the fact he is entered perhaps indicates he has been showing them enough at home to warrant the trip over, and given they have two strong chances already he is therefore perhaps a bigger price than he should be. An American bred son of War Front, he showed plenty of pace when making a winning debut last time out and should be suited by fast underfoot conditions. He also shows a strong dosage profile for this race and both he and Sir John Hawkins with just one run behind them are open to any amount of improvement.
The Richard Hannon trio are headed by Championship who is the choice of stable jockey Richard Hughes. He overcame trouble in running to make a winning start to his career at Newbury in May and will be hoping to emulate Strong Suit, who won this race for the same connections back in 2010. A son of Exceed and Excel, he was always likely to make up into a precocious two year old and he is a leading player in this race.
Thunder Strike has done little wrong in his career to date and won a Listed race well enough last time out despite racing awkwardly towards the end of the race. He has improved with each start and although his pedigree is not the most flashily, he certainly has a lot of pace and there could be more to come from him. The other Richard Hannon runner is Wahaab who was a convincing enough winner on debut despite showing signs of greenness. Paul Hanagan has passed over him in favour of Mawfoor which is a point to note but similarly to the Aiden O'Brien team, it would be unwise to assume a ‘third string' is in a race like this to just make up the numbers.
