Andy Powell Content Editor Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
The purpose of this article is to provide readers with an update in
respect of my ongoing investigations to develop a methodology to
identify value Horse Racing wagers, which will hopefully enable
users to achieve long term, sustainable profits when backing these
value selections.For readers who have yet to encounter the VALUE
CALCULATOR, or wish to refresh their understanding of the mechanics
and early results for this methodology, I would recommend that they
take a few minutes to review my initial article which can be
accessed via the following link:Introducing the
VALUE CALCULATOR Since writing the original article in early
January, I have been using the VALUE CALCULATOR to assess
subsequent races on a daily basis, the results of which have been
very pleasing, albeit I have been working alone and therefore due
to time constraints, it has been necessary to focus on specific
types of races.This article will focus on Group and Listed flat
races on turf, but I intend to provide a similar update for
handicap flat races in the near future.
Criteria for Choosing Races to
be Analysed and Selecting Value Wagers
I have focussed this analysis on Group and Listed turf flat races
that have no age restriction (excluding 2yo and 3yo only events)
held in the UK (excluding Ireland) between 1 May and 30 June
2017.The reasons for selecting the above criteria were twofold, in
that I wanted to ensure that most of the runners to be analysed
would have sufficient experience to facilitate a fairly accurate
profile based on the Racing Post Postdata criteria, whilst also
ensuring that the better quality horses were more likely to perform
consistently and therefore run to form.With regard to the selection
process for identifying potentially value wagers, more detailed
analysis of the data that I collated during 2016, which was used to
write the original article indicated that it was most profitable to
concentrate on the two VALUE CALCULATOR qualifiers which were
available to back at the shortest odds in each race.
Results Achieved
Armed with the above criteria, I undertook the VALUE CALCULATOR
analysis of 41 Group and Listed races on the evening prior to each
race and having identified the top 2 qualifiers in the betting
market at around 9.00 pm each evening, I placed a small stake win
bet on each at the best odds available with the appropriate
bookmaker (as indicated on Oddschecker), ensuring that all of the
bets were struck with the best odds guaranteed concession.The
results achieved during this period were as follows:
RACES: 41
SELECTIONS: 83
WINNERS: 14
STRIKE RATE: 17%
STAKES: 83.00
RETURN: 101.50
PROFIT: 18.50
ROI: 22.23%
It should be noted that there was only one VALUE CALCULATOR
qualifier in some races, whilst there were a handful of events with
joint second selections which has resulted in slightly more than 2
selections per race over the period.The profit figure is based on
the returns from the bookmakers after taking into account Rule 4
deductions in respect of non runners.Further analysis by grade of
race provided some interesting results, as follows:
Group 1: 2 winners from 14 selections:
Strike Rate 14%: Loss of 1.25 pts
Group 2: 1 winner from 13 selections: Strike Rate 8%: Profit of
4.00 pts
Group 3: 4 winners from 20 selections: Strike Rate 20%: Profit of
7.50 pts
Listed: 7 winners from 34 selections: Strike Rate 20%: Profit of
8.25 pts
Conclusions
Although the sample size of 41 races is not massive and it could be
argued that the profit figure may be the result of a few lucky
wagers, rather than an indication that the VALUE CALCULATOR is an
effective method for identifying value selections, I am reassured
by the fact that these results were roughly in line with the
figures that I collated from the analysis of a further 75 races
during last year.I am therefore fairly confident that the current
version of the VALUE CALCULATOR provides an effective methodology
for identifying value wagers in Group and Listed flat races on
turf, although I was a little disappointed with the overall level
of profit achieved during the period, especially with regards to
the performance of the selections in Group 1 and 2 events.Due to
the small sample sizes, it is too early to draw any conclusions
with regard to why the VALUE CALCULATOR selections have performed
less well at Group 1 and 2 level, however the strike rate and
profits achieved in Group 3 and Listed events were very
respectable, to the extent that I intend to implement a new
MILLIONAIRE PLAN, as per the following strategy:
How To Become A
Sports Betting Millionaire (A Low Risk Strategy)
Further Activities
I intend to continue using the VALUE CALCULATOR to analyse Group
and Listed turf flat races over the next few months and will post a
further update around the beginning of September.In the meantime, I
will also shortly post a separate article covering the results of
my analysis on better quality flat handicaps on turf which I have
been undertaking in tandem with this investigation, plus I will try
to complete my initial work on handicap hurdles that I promised in
my first update on handicap chases, which was curtailed due to my
ill health earlier this year.As mentioned in my initial article,
there are so many potential uses of the VALUE CALCULATOR, many of
which I shall probably never find the time to investigate, so if
anyone feels that they have the time and enthusiasm to get involved
in this project, then it would be great to hear from you, via a
private message.I hope that readers have found this analysis of
interest and as usual, I would welcome any comments and feedback,
especially if readers have any similar ideas/methodologies for
assessing value that they are happy to share.Also, if you have
enjoyed this blog, please feel free to share the link on social
media, with your friends and contacts who are interested in horse
racing.Further articles relating to the VALUE CALCULATOR are easily
accessible via the following link:
VALUE CALCULATOR
INDEX Finally, even if readers do not wish to undertake the
VALUE CALCULATOR analysis on a regular basis, it may be
worth the effort when considering maximum stakes bets, or for a bit
of fun occasionally applying the process to the selections of OLBG
members.Click here to view other
free horse
racing tips. 
