Andy Powell Expert Guide
You know how punters get lost in too much data or bet blindly? I break down the stats and trends so you can feel confident you’re betting with more than just gut instinct.
I'll take a look at a few tips and trends for the Paddy Power Gold Cup in search of unearthing the winner, using the last 10 years data.
Age
A list of the different runners age groups with their wins, places and non-completes listed too.5 Year Olds
- 13 have ran producing 0 winners and 4 places. 4 runners also did not finish. Not a particularly strong trend. Only fancied good horses would be sent here at 5, and obviously find the experience too much to give away.6 Year Olds
- 29 runners have given 2 winners and 5 placed efforts. Of the remaining 22, 9 have not completed. More likely to not finish than win or place, and again one for consideration but not adherence. Experience looks key here.7 Year Olds
- 41 runners providing 6 wins and 7 places with only 8 not completing. The strongest age group in terms of winners and also finishing the race. At 7 it looks like they've matured enough to fully run their race.8 Year Olds
- 43 runners have given only 1 win and 5 places, with 13 failing to cross the line completely. More likely to not finish than finish well, and looks like another one to avoid.9 Year Olds
- 1 winner and 6 places from 21 runners is a good strike rate, but similarly there have been 9 not finishing the race. Too risky as a group.10+ Year Olds
- 18 runners with no winners or placers and 6 failed to finish. Avoid these older horses.Looks fairly convincing that the safest and age group to be backing is the 7 year olds. Probably due to having enough experience to make it count, whilst still having the right mix of youth and speed to burn.
7 Year Olds
Al Ferof, Hunt Ball, Grands Crus, Quantitiveeasing, Walkon, Kingsmere, Questions Answered & Gilbarry.Weight
Only 1 winner has carried top weight and that was 2002's winner. Only two more have carried less than 8lbs lower than the top weight, with only 3 more of these filling the places so I'm inclined to not look towards the top half of the weights.This leaves us with:
Walkon (8/1)
Kingsmere (33/1)
Questions Answered (50/1)
Gilbarry (66/1)
I prefer Kingsmere out of the four at a big price of 33/1.
