Low-Risk Laying for Profit at the Cheltenham Festival

Most of my best ideas come from a random thought out-of-the-blue.This one was no different. I was actually looking at some in-playodds on football when this sprung to mind...How many 1.01 gubbings have there been at the Cheltenhamfestival?First of all,the

Low-Risk Laying for Profit at the Cheltenham Festival
Most of my best ideas come from a random thought out-of-the-blue. This one was no different. I was actually looking at some in-play odds on football when this sprung to mind...

How many 1.01 gubbings have there been at the Cheltenham festival?

First of all,the meaning of "gub"
Should you be of Scottish decent, this would more akin to a smack in the mouth but in exchange betting terms,whilst the physical pain may not be so severe, the emotional hurt of losing out when betting on something at very short odds, will not be so far removed.
So to be "gubbed", in it's most common use in betting, is to have bet on something on the exchanges at perhaps 1.05 (1/20) or lower and still lose.
My first thought was of the runner in the Foxhunters Chase in 2013 which jinked when the race was at his mercy un-shipping his unfortunate jockey for the runner in second to scoop the prize, and it also got me to thinking that the run-in at Cheltenham up the famous hill, has seen many a tired horse out on it's feet wandering aimlessly toward the line only to be caught late on. So how low did these runners trade? How often would it be possible to lay at very low odds, for very little risk and how often would it pay off?
Well in answer to how often could we lay at the price, the simple answer is every race! For every winner will trade at 1.01 as the "certainty gets backed crossing the line, so certainly we would be matched at least once.
What I really wanted to find out is how often would TWO runners [or more] trade at low prices. Would there be any point in laying the field sub 2.00 on the exchanges?
If we laid every runner at say 1.80 and two were matched, whilst we would be guaranteed to lose on one, the liability on the winner would be less than the gain for the loser, thus guaranteeing a profit overall
But how often would this happen?
The only way to find out would be to go over the past results at the festival and manually check each race for the in-running low trading figures - And i was aghast to find I only had to cover four years to find at least one occurrence in every single race at the Festival except the OLBG Mares Hurdle!
First things first before i get onto the numbers. I was actually incorrect in my first assumption that the Foxhunters had a 1.01 gubbing, OSCAR DELTA actually was trading at 1.02 when un-shipping Jane Mangan when victory was hers. What I had forgot was that TORFINO BAY in the National Hunt Chase on the Wednesday had traded at 1.01 when left clear at the last only to beat caught in the shadow of the post by Willie Mullins' BACK IN FOCUS.
At the Cheltenham Festival in 2013 there were 29 races in which 46 runners traded below 2.00.
17 of those lost
11 of those losers traded below 1.50.
I have checked back to the 2010 season to find at least one occurrence of this happening in every race at the festival excewpt the Mares, the numbers are fascinating

Here is the list of races, years and runners that have traded sub 2.00 and lost at the Festival - Race by Race, Year, Horse, In Play Low

Including all 75 runners treading below 2.00 and losing
50 of which could have been laid at 1.55 or lower.

Supreme Novice Hurdle

  • 2010 Dunguib 1.42
  • 2011 Spirit Son 1.23 Sprinter Sacre 1.31
  • 2012
  • 2013 My Tent Or Yours 1.51

Arkle

  • 2010
  • 2011 Finians Rainbow 1.50
  • 2012
  • 2013

JLT Specialty

  • 2010 Ogee 1.89
  • 2011 Caroles Legacy 1.51
  • 2012 
  • 2013 White Star Line 1.55

Champion Hurdle

  • 2010 
  • 2011
  • 2012 Hurricane Fly 1.62
  • 2013

Cross Country Chase

  • 2010 L'Ami 1.34
  • 2011 Maljimar 1.54
  • 2012 A New Story 1.11
  • 2013

Mares Hurdle

  • 2010
  • 2011
  • 2012
  • 2013

Rewards For Racing

  • 2010 Becauseicouldntsee 1.30
  • 2011 Quantitiveasing 1.70
  • 2012
  • 2013 Ackertac 1.21

National Hunt Chase

  • 2010
  • 2011
  • 2012 Harry the Viking 1.77 & Four Commanders 1.62
  • 2013 Tofino Bay 1.01 & Rival Deustruval 1.77

Neptune

  • 2010 Reve De Sivola 1.13 & Rite of Passage 1.53
  • 2011 Rock on Ruby 1.05 & Oscars Well 1.52
  • 2012
  • 2013 Pont Alexandre 1.53

RSA Chase

  • 2010 Long Run 1.80
  • 2011 Jessies Dream 1.54
  • 2012 First Lieutenant 1.82 & Grands Crus 1.61
  • 2013

Champion Chase

  • 2010 Master Minded 1.77
  • 2011 Big Zeb 1.77
  • 2012 Sizing Europe 1.21
  • 2013

Coral Cup

  • 2010
  • 2011 For Non Stop 1.61
  • 2012
  • 2013

Fred Winter

  • 2010
  • 2011 Kumbeshwar 1.89
  • 2012 Edeymi 1.34 & Kaziman 1.55
  • 2013 Ptit Zig 1.65

Champion Bumper

  • 2010
  • 2011
  • 2012 New Years Eve 1.38
  • 2013

Jewson

  • 2010
  • 2011 Wishful Thinking 1.31
  • 2012
  • 2013 Dynaste 1.30 & Captain Conan 1.36

Pertemps

  • 2010
  • 2011 Son Amix 1.80
  • 2012
  • 2013

Ryanair

  • 2010
  • 2011
  • 2012 Albertas Run 1.13
  • 2013 First Lieutenant 1.41

World Hurdle

  • 2010
  • 2011 Grands Crus 1.74
  • 2012 Voler De Vadette 1.90
  • 2013 Celestial Halo 1.42

Byrne Group Plate

  • 2010
  • 2011
  • 2012
  • 2013 Vino Griego 1.22

Kim Muir Fulke Walwyn

  • 2010
  • 2011
  • 2012 Deal Done 1.90
  • 2013 Super Duty 1.30 & Romanesco 1.50

Triumph Hurdle

  • 2010 Barizan 1.30
  • 2011 Grandouet 1.60
  • 2012 Grumeti 1.66 & Dodging Bullets 1.27
  • 2013

Vincent O'Brien

  • 2010 Zanir 1.12
  • 2011 Get Me Out Of Here 1.09
  • 2012 Edguardo Sol 1.89 & Sailors Warn 1.71
  • 2013

Albert Bartlett

  • 2010 Najaf 1.12
  • 2011
  • 2012 Boston Bob 1.33
  • 2013

Cheltenham Gold Cup

  • 2010 Denman 1.77 Kauto Star 1.63
  • 2011 Kauto Star 1.68
  • 2012 The Giant Bolster & 1.37 Long Run 1.50
  • 2013 Sir Des Champs 1.40

Foxhunters Chase

  • 2010
  • 2011 Baby Run 1.52
  • 2012 Chapoturgeon 1.37
  • 2013 Oscar Delta 1.02

Martin Pipe Conditionals

  • 2010 Radium 1.33
  • 2011 Son of Flicka 1.26
  • 2012
  • 2013 Toner D'Oudaries 1.32 & Oscar Nominee 1.34

Johnny Henderson

  • 2010 Consigliere 1.18
  • 2011
  • 2012 Tanks for That 1.20
  • 2013
How you choose to use these numbers is entirely up to you. certainly there are one or two horses and certainly a few races I may look to use this approach with at the Cheltenham Festival 2014
Please feel free to play around with the numbers and let me know if you come up with any profitable angles

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