Eurovision Song Contest Betting: Predictions, Tips and Insights for the 2024 Show in Sweden

Eurovision Song Contest Betting

Most major bookmakers are offering betting odds on which Countries will win Eurovision 2024. 

You can also place bets on the Eurovision Semi-Finals and a host of other betting markets. 

 We have listed the type of bets you are likely to find when you are considering placing a Eurovision bet. 

Eurovision Song Contest Winner

The most popular betting market available for this would be to predict the Eurovision Song Contest winner, the odds will be available a long time before May, so you can take advantage of early odds.

Make sure you watch the individual countries' selection process, you can then find a catchy song that could do well in the contest proper. 

Eurovision Song Contest Each Way Betting 

The best betting sites that offer Eurovision odds will also offer 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and sometimes 5th place betting. This means if your selection finishes at the top of the leaderboard you will get paid out. 

You will need to check how many places each of the best betting sites are paying.  

Eurovision Semi-Final Betting

There will be two Semi-Finals on Tuesday and Thursday ahead of the Saturday Eurovision contest.

Naturally, you tend to find those countries who are towards the head of the betting to win Eurovision in the Saturday Final are shortish prices to win their Semi-Final.

Betting odds will be available in both contests.  

Eurovision Last Place Betting

The dreaded nil points that many countries have experienced over the years mean you can profit by selecting the worst Eurovision song! 

Eurovision Country v Country

Will the UK finish with more points than Ireland? Will Sweden finish higher than Norway and Finland? Which Balkan country will finish in the highest position? 

Top Balkan Country

• Albania
• Bulgaria
• Croatia
• Greece
• North Macedonia
• Romania
• Serbia
• Slovenia
• North Macedonia 

Top Baltic Country

• Estonia
• Latvia
• Lithuania 

Top Scandinavian Country

• Denmark
• Finland
• Norway
• Sweden

UK vs Ireland History: In the last 8 years, Ireland has only qualified for the Eurovision final once. The UK as one of the big 5 has competed in them all.

Eurovision Top 5 Finish

Can you find a country to make the top 5?

Eurovision Top 10 Finish

Can you find a country to make the top 10?

Eurovision Big 5 Finish

The Big 5 who automatically qualify for the final are the UK, Germany, Italy, Spain and Germany, which of these will finish in the highest position?

Eurovision Jury Winner

Which country will the expert jury select as the winner, and will it differ from the Tele Vote?

Eurovision Tele Vote Winner

Will European voters choose a different winner than Jurys, you can place a bet on the Televote winner. 

How To Place A Eurovision Bet

If you do not have an active online betting account, then head over to our betting sites section where you will see a list of bookmakers available in the UK. 

We have in-depth reviews so you can see what other users think of them before deciding, or head over to the free bets page where you can see the list of welcome offers currently available from all UK betting sites. 

Alternatively, most bookmakers have betting apps you simply need to go to your favourite betting app and head to the TV & Specials section in the menu, then select Eurovision Betting. 

There is nothing complicated about betting on the ESC, there is a range of betting markets that should be able to accommodate most of us who want to place a Eurovision bet. 

Once you are at the betting site just follow the instructions below:

• Click on your selection.
• This will open up the bet slip, at which point you will see confirmation of the betting odds being offered
• Now you choose your stake - most betting sites will show you how much you can expect to have returned if your prediction is correct.
• If you are happy, simply hit, PLACE BET, to confirm your selection, stake, and bet.
• You will be given a receipt for your bet and it will appear in your open bets in your account details.
• Then it's just a matter of waiting to see which country becomes the Eurovision winner. 

Eurovision Song Contest Betting News Diary Timeline

The betting odds for The Eurovision Song Contest are available as soon as the previous year's contest is over. The bookmakers do not even know the songs yet but they still price up the country's chances. 

We follow all the odds and here is a round-up of the Eurovision Betting News from our OLBG News feed.   

23rd May 2024

ALSO READ

Eurovision 2025 Host Odds: Four cities look to go against each other in Switzerland to host Eurovision next year with Geneva, Zürich, Basel and St. Gallen in the running!

8th May 2024

ALSO READ

2024 Eurovision Song Contest Winner Odds: Croatia lead the way to win the Eurovision Song Contest after sailing through the first Semi-Final!

17th April 2024

ALSO READ

Eurovision Song Contest Betting Odds: Bookies make Croatia ODDS-ON to win Semi-Final 1 of this year's Eurovision with odds offered on both Semi's of the contest!

9th April 2024

ALSO READ

Eurovision Song Contest Betting Odds: Switzerland are NEW FAVOURITES to win Eurovision this year with Nemo looking to win with 'The Code' in Sweden!

26th March 2024

ALSO READ

Eurovision Song Contest Betting Odds: Croatia shortens EVEN FURTHER into 9/4 to win Eurovision with Baby Lasagna's popularity growing!

5th March 2024

ALSO READ

Eurovision Song Contest 2024 Betting Odds: Croatia are now 5/2 FAVOURITES after Baby Lasagna's Rim Tim Tagi Dim goes VIRAL!

19th February 2024

ALSO READ

Eurovision Song Contest Betting Odds: Ukraine move into 5/2 favourites to win Eurovision with Israel's inclusion confirmed by the EBU earlier this week!

30th January 2024

ALSO READ

Eurovision 2024 Winner Odds: Years and Years singer Olly Alexander now favourite to win Eurovision after he's announced as UK's representative last month!

12th December 2023

ALSO READ

Eurovision Song Contest Betting Odds: Israel now leads the way in the betting market to win Eurovision with 2024 participation confirmed

2nd May 2023

ALSO READ

Eurovision Song Contest Betting Odds: Sweden now have a '61% CHANCE' of winning next week's Eurovision Song Contest according to latest odds!

13th April 2023

ALSO READ

Eurovision Song Contest Betting Odds: Sweden looking for EUPHORIA with Loreen representing them again at this year's Song Contest!

12th April 2023

ALSO READ

Eurovision Betting Odds: Austria have 55% CHANCE of winning Semi-Final 2 of the 2023 Eurovision Song Contest!

11th April 2023

ALSO READ

Eurovision Betting Odds: Finland are 8/11 FAVOURITES to win Semi-Final 1 of this year's Eurovision Song Contest!

24th March 2023

ALSO READ

Eurovision Song Contest Betting Odds: Sweden are ODDS ON to win Eurovision with former winner Loreen after EUPHORIA once again at the Song Contest!

17th March 2023

ALSO READ

Eurovision Song Contest 2023 Betting Odds: United Kingdom come in to 25/1 from 33/1 after draw sees Mae Muller performing last on the night in 26th spot!

9th March 2023

ALSO READ

Eurovision Song Contest 2023 Betting Odds: United Kingdom drift out to 33/1 from 10/1 after Mae Muller was announced as UK act for Eurovision on Thursday morning!

2nd March 2023

ALSO READ

Eurovision Song Contest 2023 Betting Odds: Sweden now 5/4 FAVOURITES for Eurovision with former winner Loreen looking like representing her country again!

14th February 2023

ALSO READ

Eurovision Song Contest 2023 Betting Odds: Italy BACKED IN to third favourites following last week's Sanremo Festival saw Marco Mengoni win!

7th February 2023

ALSO READ

Festival Di SanRemo 2023 Betting Odds: Marco Mengoni favourite to win Festival Di SanRemo and become Italy's Eurovision entrant for this year's Song Contest!

2nd February 2023

ALSO READ

Eurovision Betting Odds: The UK DRIFTS OUT to 10/1 with bookies to win Eurovision after being 2/1 second favourite just a month ago!

1st February 2023

ALSO READ

Eurosong Ireland 2023 Betting Odds: Connolly is the 5/2 FAVOURITE to win Eurosong 2023 and represent Ireland at this year's Eurovision!

22nd December 2022

ALSO READ

Eurovision Song Contest 2023 Betting Odds: United Kingdom now 6/1 SECOND FAVOURITES to win next year's home Eurovision!

11th December 2022

ALSO READ

Eurovision 2023 Presenter Betting Specials: Mel Giedroyc a NEW ENTRY to the betting market at 2/1 to be a host at next year's Eurovision Song Contest!

1st December 2022

ALSO READ

Eurovision Song Contest 2023 Betting Odds: Ireland have a 57% CHANCE of qualifying for next year's Eurovision according to the latest bookmaker odds!

18th October 2022

ALSO READ

Eurovision 2023 Host Specials: Ukraine's Eurovision commentator Timur Miroshnychenko is now 8/13 FAVOURITE with bookies to host next year's Eurovision in the UK!

Eurovision Betting Tips

• Songs sung in English do best. 
• Ireland always takes the contest seriously and regularly chooses a competitive song. The Irish as well as winning the most times have also come second four times. 
• Russia has a great record with one win, four-second places, and four third places from just 22 entries. In the last seven years, the Russian entry has finished,3 DNQ, 3, 2, 7, 5, 2.
• The Scandinavian countries Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden have collectively won ESC six times since 2000. 
• The UK in recent years had performed terribly with no top-ten finishes in the last 10 years before Sam Ryder did the country proud with his 2nd place. 
• Israel punches above their weight with four wins in ESC history. 
• Songs at the start of the final perform poorly compared to the middle and end of the contest, presumably because voters can recall those later songs more easily. 
• The last country to win back-to-back Eurovision Song Contests was Ireland in 1994. 

Eurovision Winners Running Order

Stats and Trends

Dan Tracey our Data analyst has conducted a deep dive of Eurovision data to find some angles and interesting statistics.

With the breakup of both the Soviet Union and the former Yugoslavia, the number of potential Eurovision entrants has swelled over the years and with more nations looking to join the annual party, it means that some will be left off the guestlist.

Now that the semi-final stage is in place, it also means that some nations get to be on the grandest stage but on the evening that matters that most and if we look at the nations that have the highest success rate for the final itself, it currently looks as follows:

In this table we have captured both the top 10 nations in terms of qualification success rate and to provide context we have also listed the ‘Big Five’ who have permanent membership to the competition and are always on the Eurovision guestlist.

When looking at those nations that are no guaranteed entry, two nations have a 100% record to proud of. 2022 winners Ukraine have entered 18 times since 2003 and have to qualify on 13 separate occasions.

Each of those 13 occasions have seen them progress to the final and along with the former Serbia and Montenegro they have a perfect qualification record – albeit the former Yugoslav nation only made two appearances and had to qualify in one of them. 

The third place nation on this list is Sweden and although they do not have automatic entry to the contest, they are one of the mainstays. 61 finals appearances and 14 occasions where qualification has been required. Of those 14, 13 have seen further progress – a success rate of 93%

One percent more than Russia in fourth and with this nation currently frozen out of proceedings because of a certain Mr. Putin, they have not had an opportunity to appear for a 24th time. However, even with inactivity they still sit above Bosnia and Herzegovina who themselves have been inactive since 2016.

Another inactive nation is fifth and the curious case of Australia. You do not need to be a geographical whizz to know they are nowhere Europe but the hand of friendship has let the antipodean nation appear from 2015 to 2023.

Eight entries, seven finals and six qualifications to the main event. A hit rate that is the same as Turkey who have not appeared since 2012 and Azerbaijan who have the same percentage after qualifying from 14 semi-finals 12 times.

Bringing up the rear in terms of the top 10 qualification experts are the duo of Greece and Norway. Both with an 81% success rate when it comes to moving on to the big show on Saturday, both coming from 13 qualifications from 16 attempts. 

Next up we are going to look at the percentage of points a nation has earned in relation to what is available. In essence, an efficiency rate when it comes to Eurovision success and this is a good way to measure consistency across the contest. With this measure, we take a look at the top 10: 

We can see that Serbia and Montenegro are top of the list, but only two finals appearances does create something of an outlier. Therefore, it is Ukraine which has a greater claim in terms of Eurovision consistency.

They have managed to secure 3623 points in their Eurovision history and this equates to 32.464% of all available points that they could have secured and there will be some pride at just pipping Russia by this metric. 32.464% plays 32.362% at present – a difference of 0.102% 

Fourth in the list is the first of the ‘Big Five’ and Italy’s total of 4859 points equates to 31.143% of all that has ever been available to the Italians. Meanwhile it is less than a percent more than Eurovision veterans Sweden in fifth.

The land of ABBA is clear in the distance of Australia in sixth and the land down under sits one place above the United Kingdom who are seventh. The likes of Bucks Fizz and Katrina and the Waves have earned 4571 points in total, 20.853% of all that is available.

Although there is very little difference between the United Kingdom in seventh and the rest of the top 10. Less than 0.3% is the gap that covers the UK, Luxembourg in eighth, Israel in ninth and Ireland in tenth. 

Another way to measure consistency within Eurovision is to apply weighted values to nations that have finished in the top three. We know that Ireland are the kings of the competition but are they a nation that operates within more of a boom and bust cycle? 

To try and prove the point, we have applied five points for every win, three points for every second place and one point for every third place. With this metric, this what the top 10 nations look like in terms of overall success.

Ireland may be the joint kings, but the United Kingdom will look to make some ascension to the Eurovision throne. A total of 76 weighted points have been secured by top three finishes, their 16 second places over the years doing a lot of the heavy lifting.

Lifting that lifts them above Ireland who have to make do with 48 weighted points by comparison. Seven wins, four seconds and single third means that the Irish just have enough points to keep the French at bay with 47.

Sitting fourth in the list are Sweden with 44 weighted points. Like Ireland, they have won the Eurovision Song Contest seven times but they have only managed one second place and six third to go alongside their previous outright success.

The Netherlands and Italy share fifth. The Dutch have won five Eurovision titles, the Italian’s three. However, the latter have shown more in the way of consistency, as they have also picked up three seconds and five thirds.

These two are a point above Israel in seventh, who in turn sit a point above the pair of Luxembourg and Germany. While rounding out the top 10 are Spain, who have collected 24 weighted points thanks to two wins, four seconds and two thirds. 

At the same time could success simply be down to a number? It may be if you are given the 17th performance slot during the Eurovision Song Contest final. This particular slot has produced no less than seven winners overall. Two more than the trio of 8, 9 and 14.

While a quintet of numbers have produced four winners – those being 3, 11, 12, 18, 20 and although they say that the opening slot is the one to avoid, that is not necessarily the case. Three separate winners have got that year’s proceedings underway and still come out on top. 

Here is the full list of winners by number below: 

For all the success stories within Eurovision, there are plenty of tales where success has eluded a nation and we can also track those who are still yet to win the contest outright. In terms of a top 10 for those still looking to land the big one, it looks like this:

39 attempts and nothing to show for it, that is the tale of the tape for Cyprus and with the 2024 edition just a few months away, they will not be aiming to reach the landmark 40 in Sweden. Then again, things are not all that much better for Malta and Iceland either.

Both the Maltese and the Icelandic entries are yet to land the big one, each nation has made 35 previous attempts at doing so. Seven more than the former Yugoslav duo of Croatia and Slovenia with 28 attempts without a win.

That rounds out the top five and it is Poland who are currently sixth. They have had 25 previous attempts without being on the top step of the Eurovision podium, two more than Lithuania and Romania. 

Rounding out the top 10 in terms of nations without success, it is North Macedonia who find themselves ninth with 21 losing attempts and Bosnia and Herzegovina are 10th with 19 – the fact they stopped entering after 2016 may be linked to this. 

If these are the nations that have had the most attempts at winning without any success, what about the nations that have simply appeared the most. Here is a list of the near-permanent Eurovision Song Contest furniture: 

It is the Germans who have the honour of being Eurovision ever-present. 66 editions of the contest to date and they have been to each and every one. One more than both France and the United Kingdom at 65 each.

Of course, these three being at the top of the list should be of no real surprise when you consider that they are members of the ‘Big Five’ and therefore, a special nod should perhaps be placed in the direction of Belgium instead.

Out of 66 editions of the Eurovision Song Contest, they have been at 64. One member of the Benelux clan just edging out another as the Netherlands sit joint-fifth in the list along with Switzerland with 63 appearances each. 

Joint-seventh are the duo of Spain and Sweden with 62 appearances each, although the Spanish just edge proceedings here by virtue of never missing out on the final itself and they are both on one more appearance than Norway in ninth.

Rounding out the top 10 is another shared entry and both Finland and Ireland have secured 56 previous invites. The Finns just getting the nod here after securing 48 finals appearances compared to the Irish’s 45.

At the same time, there is an element of context that needs to be applied and it is fair to say that musical trends have evolved over the years. The success in the 1960’s is perhaps not the same as in the 2000’s and therefore, we are now going to look at the placing data from 2004.

In doing so, it gives an idea of how nations are performing in the Eurovision Song Contest’s ‘modern era’ and if we track that average finish for each nation from 2004 to 2023, these are the current 10 lowest: 

Again, our good friends Serbia & Montenegro are offering something of an anomaly, although it is fair to say that they were good while it lasted. Two appearances in their short lifespan, an average finish of 4.50.

Exactly two average positions less than Turkey in second, as they have finished 6.50 since 2004 and the are joined by both Russia and Italy when it comes to recording average finishes that are less than seventh.

Just the wrong side of that metric are Bulgaria and Ukraine with average finishes of 7.20 and 7.94 respectively and they edge out Sweden in seventh who have recorded an average finish of 8.28 since 2004. 

More than a position lower than Australia who more than held their own at Eurovision. A very welcome guest who should be welcome back any time after recording an average finish of 9.86 during its spell in the contest. 

The Aussies in eighth and Azerbaijan in ninth with an average finish of 10.15 – just 0.16 lower than Greece in 10th. While to provide further context, the United Kingdon’s average of the past 20 years is 19.58. 

An average finish of 19.58 across the last 20 years and now we need to investigate why:

Taking Sam Ryder’s second-place in 2022 as the outlier here, the last five performances at Eurovision have been nothing short of a collective disaster. Twice finishing dead last, 2023 was only place better, 2018 just two.

Even if you take those five performances as a microcosm of the United Kingdom at Eurovision you can get an understanding of why their average finish has been just 19.58 since the finals stage was introduced in 2004.

Then again, things were not much better in 2016 or 2015. Joe and Jake finishing third bottom with ‘You’re Not Alone’ and Electro Velvet finishing fourth bottom the year prior with the effort ‘Still In Love With You’.

Even a legendary name such as Engelbert Humperdinck has bombed on the Eurovision stage. He could only finish second to last in 2012 as his effort ‘Love You Will Set You Free’ failed to wow audiences across the continent.

Of course, things could have been far worse and for James Newman in 2021, they were as bad as they could possibly be. His entry ‘Embers’ was tipped for big things, it burnt out just like the title suggested with nil points. 

Bottom of the Eurovision ladder in 2021 and it also leads us into our final piece of insight, which nations have propped up everyone else most often? Are the United Kingdom the best at also being the worst? 

Thankfully for them, that unwanted accolade goes to the Norwegians. They have finished last on no less than 11 separate occasions and as a consequence, Norway has become the hotbed of finishing last at Eurovision.

Two more last places than both Germany and Finland with nine each and they are both one worse off than Belgium below. Eight last places for the Belgians, seven for the Austrians and then the United Kingdom turn up.

No less than five entrants have earned the ignominy of finishing last, the same as both Spain and Switzerland and even the most successful nations also have years to forget. Sweden and Ireland may have won the contest on seven occasions, they have also produced two lasts each as well. 

Source: 

https://eschome.net/

Data correct as of 10th Jan 2024. 

List of Eurovision History Winners

Eurovision Song Contest Winners By Country

• The Eurovision Song contest has been running since 1956.
• In the first Eurovision Song Contest, 7 countries participated in Lugano, Switzerland. 
• The Swiss hosts beat songs from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands.
• You can see above and below how each country has fared at Eurovision.
  
  

Eurovision Winners Songs Since 1999

Eurovision Song Contest Winners By Act

Solo singers have traditionally performed the best when it comes to the Eurovision Song Contest.

In the last 10 years, there has been only two winning groups (Maneskin 2021, The Kalush Orchestra 2022) and one duo (Ell & Nikki 2011). 

The breakdown is as follows: 

Eurovision Nil Points

The dreaded Nil Points have been received on 37 occasions by a range of Eurovision artists. 

Austria and Norway lead the nil points with 4 of their songs each receiving no points whatsoever. 

Eurovision Voting Format

Over the years the Eurovision format and voting system have been rejigged numerous times to try and counter tactical voting. 

Each country has two sets of votes, one from the broadcaster's jury and one from televoting by viewers in those countries. 

A jury in each country: 12 10 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1.

Televote in each country: 12 10 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1.  

UK Eurovision Winners

The UK has faded into Eurovision also-rans for the last 20 years. As you can view in the table below the UK last won Eurovision in 1997. 

A mixture of poor songs from inexperienced artists has not helped, but of more significance may be the expansion of Eurovision countries, many with close ties to other countries.

However, the UK cannot get away from the fact that in the last 11 years, we have finished 26th, 25th twice and 24th three times. 

Our best performance in recent times was in 2009 when Jade Ewan sang Its My Time and in 2022 with Spaceman by Sam Ryder.