Are Europe’s Biggest Leagues Getting Less Competitive

The Last 5 Years

While the best starting place would be a look at what has happened in the last five complete seasons (2019/20 to 2023/24) and see if we can spot any early patterns. First up we are going to look at four of the big five European leagues.

By leaving out Bayern Munich’s dominance in the Bundesliga, we can compare and contrast how the other four leagues have fared since the start of the 2019/20 campaign and our findings are as follows: 

• ⚽ Premier League, Bundesliga & Ligue 1: 🏆🏆🏆🏆 (One team wins 4 out of 5 years)

• ⚽ La Liga & Serie A: 🏆🏆🎉🎉 (More than 2 clubs win the title in the past 5 years - Serie A with the most variation with four different winners in the past five years)

This admittedly points to what we could call ‘hyper-dominance’ in three of the five biggest European leagues and although football success can be considered rather cyclical, you get the feeling that money will keep these cycles from changes anytime soon.

That is not to say that Manchester City and PSG are invincible, more they certainly rule the roost in England and France respectively and as impressive as Bayern Munich are in Germany, their one-team rule in Bundesliga may only be on the the shortest possible hiatus.

This means if this is the picture across the five biggest European leagues, what happens if we add a few more competitions into the mix. Something that we have done when analysing the top divisions in the Netherlands, Portugal, and Scotland respectively.

Here we can see a slightly different picture when you leave Scotland behind and take a trip to the continent. In the Scottish Premiership it can come as no surprise that Celtic and Rangers have had a duopoly on the top tier - a duopoly that is nearly 40 years and counting. However, the big two in Glasgow is the big three in both the Netherlands and Portugal.

Although Ajax and Feyenoord have recently reigned supreme in the Netherlands, it is PSV who earned the spoils at the end of the 2023/24 season and this made it a third different winner in five years.

While a similar picture can be found in Portugal and with Sporting Lisbon keeping both Benfica and Porto at bay this season, they have also widen the champions party to three teams over the past five years.

However, there is also an element of mitigating circumstance here and with these three leagues, there is very little in the way of other contenders – especially in Scotland where no other team has conquered the Old Firm since Aberdeen under the then Alex Ferguson in 1985.

A big two in Scotland, a big three in Portugal and arguably the same in Netherlands. This means although the shop has been rather closed in the past five years, their respective leagues have never really been open to outside business either.

Going Further Back in Time

Now we are going to look at the last 10 complete seasons (2014/15 to 2023/24) and see if there are any other patterns that appear the further back we go. Which means we are once again going to look at the big four European leagues and also consider Bayern’s own decade of dominance.

As we already know that Bayern Munich have won nine of the last 10 editions of the Bundesliga, there is nothing new to learn there. However, these are our findings when looking at their four major European counterparts.

• 🇮🇹 Juventus 🏆 won 6 out of the last 10 Serie A — extending their dominance.
• 🇫🇷 PSG 🏆🔝 won 8 in Ligue 1.
• 🇪🇸 No surprises in La Liga, only the traditional 3 Spanish giants 👑🏆.
• 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 The Premier League 🏆 is more diverse with 4 teams ruling the roost.

The Fox Hunt

While it is Leicester’s fairy tale success which has arguably pulled up the platform in the Premier League. Because since Claudio Ranieri led the Foxes to the title in 2016, there has been something of an arms race when it comes to the English elite signing the very best.

Because in what was a rather fortuitous set of circumstances for Leicester, they took advantage of all the members of the big six having an off season and by the time the East Midlands outfit stunned the footballing world, those that were beaten said to themselves ‘never again’.

Which leads us to where are now and with only Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool earning a Premier League title since, it is hard to look past any of those three outfits when it comes to the 2024/25 champions as well.

As for the top step in France, it can only be considered as PSG falling off it than opposed to actually be usurped and in the two rare occasions where it has not clicked for the Parisians, Monaco and Lille have managed to take advantage.

This means in France, and Germany, one single team has won at least eight of the last 10 titles on offer, it must be great to be a PSG or Bayern Munich fan more often than not.

Back Another Decade

Now we know the landscape of title victories in the past 10 years, it makes perfect sense to see what has happened in the past 20 and this time, we are going to list eight of Europe’s biggest leagues and see how many different teams ended up being champions.

As you can see the picture in Ligue1 changes completely and whereas the title is now the personal plaything of PSG, before their Qatari ownership, the competition was one of the most fiercely contested across Europe.

With seven different clubs reigning supreme, it allowed the likes of Montpellier, Bordeaux, Marseille, and Lyon to come out on top. Although it should not be forgotten that Lyon had their own period of dominance around the turn of the millennium and won seven Ligue1 titles in a row.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scottish Premier League: No new ✨members atop the ladder.

🇬🇧Premier League: Manchester United join the 🎉party.

🇵🇹Portugal's Big Three locked out proceedings 🔒.

🇪🇸La Liga: Only three teams have been declared champions🥇 

🇳🇱Eredivisie & 🇩🇪Bundesliga: More competitive with 5️⃣ winners each.

🇩🇪German League:  4️⃣ other clubs🔝 before Bayern's current run.

🇮🇹Serie A: Same four clubs are on the honours list.🎖️

There is of course one rather obvious reason to these changes and that is the further back we go, the more variation we are likely to find. However, it also highlights just how narrow the playing field is now becoming.

One more Step Back in Time

Therefore, we are going to conclude the analysis by going back one more decade in time and when looking at the last 30 years across each of these eight European leagues, here is what we subsequently found.

CONCLUSION

This means when you look at what has happened in the past and compare it to what is happening now, it is fair to say that the net to catch potential champions across the major European leagues is becoming ever shorter.

As for the reason why, it is simply a case of the rich getting richer and with success on a domestic front then feeding into more and more Champions League revenue, it is hard to see just where the current strangleholds - bar the odd one-season blips, ever become broken by any wannabe members of the elite.

This is terrible news for the likes of Tottenham, who are still looking for their first-ever Premier League title or Borussia Dortmund, who will be desperate to finally get the better of Bayern Munich - even if their best players seemingly always end up at the Allianz Arena.

Therefore, there is only one thing left to say in this analysis piece, and it just goes to show that the more things change in football, the more they are beginning to stay the same.

Editorial Information and Methodology

This article was researched and fact-checked by Dan Tracey who also then added the words - Dan is a multi-talented writer, data analyst and podcaster whose six-year career in the sports data sphere has seen incredible successes. From helping UEFA create their annual technical reports to writing articles for Sports Betting Websites, including sites like TheLinesUS and Goal 

Add Data was sourced from Wikipedia and correct as of 1st July 2024

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