The Price of Victory in the EPL - How Much Does 3 Points Cost

Updated: 550 Football

The Price of Victory in the EPL - How Much Does 3 Points Cost
Dan Tracey Data Scientist and Football Editor

Writer, analyst, podcaster, Spurs fan. Three out of four is not bad. If there is a data angle, I will find it.

There is often talk regarding the price of victory and how much success costs within the world of football and although competitions such as the Premier League are undoubtedly big business, it can be sometimes hard to measure just how costly the pursuit of wins can be.

However, when numbers are involved, there is always a way to shine some light on the concept and with league wins being collected by each of the 20 clubs in the English top flight, this can also be connected to the market value of these outfits. 

💰⚽️ The cost of success in football is a hot topic 🔥💸 The Premier League is big business, but quantifying the expense can be tricky. 🤔🔢 But fear not! We can shed light on the connection between league wins and market value for each of the 20 clubs in the English top flight! 💼🏆

This means by taking the purchase value of each member of the 20 Premier League squads, we can obtain a more democratic approach when it comes to measuring the price of victory and with that in mind, here is our first table of findings below. 

Club Purchase value Wins Costs per victory
Luton £17,765,000 6 £2,960,833
Fulham £154,207,000 13 £11,862,077
Wolves £182,750,000 13 £14,057,692
Brighton £171,377,000 12 £14,281,417
Brentford £156,995,000 10 £15,699,500
Aston Villa £335,741,500 20 £16,787,075
Crystal Palace £219,376,500 13 £16,875,115
Everton £238,952,000 13 £18,380,923
Bournemouth £241,927,000 13 £18,609,769
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🍾🌍 Brighton celebrates European qualification! 🎉💪

With an efficient performance, they won 18 matches at a cost of £5.3m per victory. 💰💙 Meanwhile, Chelsea's horror show season saw them spend big (£861m squad value), but with just 11 wins, costing £78.3m each. 😱⚽️

As you can see it is Brighton who can pop the champagne corks, as not only have they qualified for Europe, but they did so in the most efficient way possible. After finishing sixth in the Premier League table, Roberto De Zerbi’s men won 18 matches in the process.

An overall purchasing value of just under £96m but seemingly worth every penny, as their cost per victory was only £5.3m and this means the South Coast outfit will now be looking forward to a continental adventure.

At the other end of the scale is the horror show which is otherwise known as Chelsea’s season. New owner Todd Boehly has not been afraid to splash the cash and the purchase value of the current Blues squad is £861m.

Big spenders off the field of play but unfortunately Chelsea were rather dreadful on it and with just 11 wins to their name – a figure far too low for a club of their stature, each of those wins cost an eyewatering £78.3m.

Of course, this data will overlook academy graduates when looking at purchase value. This is why Tottenham must be considered an outlier in the table above, and this will be due to Harry Kane’s emergence as a talisman.

That is because Tottenham have spent the 9th least when it comes to Premier League wins this season and although one could argue about their relative underperformance, £20.8m per win is not something that should be sniffed at.

Chelsea

Chelsea had a woeful season, their handful of wins cost them nearly £80m each.

Although Chelsea found themselves within midtable malaise, the same cannot be said for the two clubs that sit above them in our cost-per-victory table. They often say that a club can be too big to go down, that was not the case for Leicester or Southampton.

Both the Saints and the Foxes have fallen out of the Premier League, and they did so with squads that contained a considerable amount of value. The former only won six matches last season at a cost of £42m each, the latter won nine and it cost them £34.6m.

TOP TO BOTTOM

While with those two clubs in mind, we can look at the price of victory table in a different order and if were to stack the number of wins from highest to lowest, here is what that the same data sample would look like.

Club Purchase value Wins Costs per victory
Arsenal £139,234,000 28 £4,972,643
Manchester City £180,789,200 28 £6,456,757
Liverpool £204,740,200 24 £8,530,842
Aston Villa £95,597,600 20 £4,779,880
Tottenham £326,585,000 20 £16,329,250
Newcastle £861,720,000 18 £47,873,333
Manchester United £236,293,600 18 £13,127,422
Chelsea £252,066,000 18 £14,003,667
West Ham £312,782,000 14 £22,341,571
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Here we can get a better idea of teams that are in comparative or competitive positions within the league table and see just what the differences are. Interestingly enough, the only two teams that break the sequence of matching their league position are Leicester and Everton.

Everton may have only won eight league matches but it was still enough to keep them in the Premier League. Sean Dyche’s men would find themselves needing to spend £30.9m per victory and even with a win fewer than Leicester, it was still enough to keep them up on the final day. 

🔃✅ In the Premier League, comparative and competitive positions reveal intriguing differences! ⚖️ Leicester and Everton break the pattern, with Everton spending £30.9m per win to secure their place. 🏆🤝 Manchester City triumphs with a cost per victory of £29.9m, while Leeds and Southampton faced relegation. 💸💡 Wise spending matters as much as transfer outlay! 💰⚽️

Apart from this swap in position, there is an exact match when it comes to the numbers of wins order (highest to lowest) and final standing in the 2022/23 Premier League table. But this is where the correlation comes to an end.

Because for a team like Manchester City to only need a cost per victory of £29.9m, the now treble winners require less than compared to both Leeds and Southampton who suffered the ignominy of relegation. 

Something that highlights that it is not what you spend in terms of transfer outlay, it is how you spend in. City have a track record of spending incredibly wisely, Leeds and Southampton certainly do not.

FINDING THE CORRELATION

Of course, the best way to add further context to all of this is by comparing the two tables and seeing what correlation can be found. To do that, we must rank the clubs in terms of victory cost and league position at the time of writing.

Club Purchase value Wins Costs per victory Cost Rank League Position Cost vs League
Luton £17,765,000 6 £2,960,833 1 18 -17
Fulham £154,207,000 13 £11,862,077 2 13 -11
Wolves £182,750,000 13 £14,057,692 3 14 -11
Brighton £171,377,000 12 £14,281,417 4 11 -7
Brentford £156,995,000 10 £15,699,500 5 16 -11
Aston Villa £335,741,500 20 £16,787,075 6 4 2
Crystal Palace £219,376,500 13 £16,875,115 7 10 -3
Everton £238,952,000 13 £18,380,923 8 15 -7
Bournemouth £241,927,000 13 £18,609,769 9 12 -3
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In doing this, we can see the difference between the two metrics and what if anything it uncovers. For starters, we can see that spending large sums of money will push clubs towards the sharper end of the Premier League table.

Because when comparing the cost ranking against the league position and then listing these new values in order from top to bottom, you can see that five of the top six are filled by members of the big six, with Tottenham acting as the only outlier.

Of course, Newcastle have and will look to further disrupt this group in the coming years and the big six may well have to become the super seven if the Magpies march continues and they find themselves with the fifth highest disparity when it comes to cost versus league positions. 

This means although the biggest clubs have the biggest disparity between the price of victory and their current league places, it will at least deliver European football and from there, these costs can be clawed back and more.

Therefore, the price of victory will be largely irrelevant to those teams at the sharper end of the table and because they have largely spent wisely (for the exception of Chelsea), they can continue to operate in continental circles as well.

💰🏆 Victory's price matters less for top clubs, delivering European football and more! 💪🌍 Wise spending pays off, except for Chelsea. ⚖️🔁 At the bottom, efficiency is the winner. Brighton tops cost per victory but finishes 6th. Bournemouth & Nottingham Forest survive with smart spending. 👏💦

Although when looking at the bottom of the table, the picture is far more jumbled and actually paints a picture of efficiency being the winner. Take Brighton for example. Top of the cost per victory table, sixth in real life and a difference of minus five positions.

While none of the teams below them were relegated at the end of last season. The likes of Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest may have ridden their luck at times, but they managed to keep their heads above water and spend wisely in process.

Both clubs had a difference of minus eight positions when comparing the two metrics to each other. The Cherries only needed £18.6m per victory, their City Ground counterparts needed just £20.08m by comparison.

Methodology

All data was gained from Transfermarkt, and the figures were attained by using the number of wins against the cost of the various squads.

Data correct as of 1st June 2023

Meet The Author

Researched and written by Dan Tracey ahead of Publishing by Steve Madgwick

Dan Tracey is a multi-talented writer, data analyst and podcaster whose six-year career in the sports data sphere has seen incredible successes. From helping UEFA create their annual technical reports to writing articles for Sports Betting Websites including sites like TheLinesUS and Goal - there's no shortage of areas where his expertise shines through! In addition he can be heard on podcasts lending an insightful voice as well as providing weekly betting angles - all culminating with him teaming up OLBG.com in the present day. Simply put: wherever you find angled data being crunched? You'll also likely find Dan not far behind!




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