The Price of Victory in the EPL - How Much Does 3 Points Cost

There is often talk regarding the price of victory and how much success costs within the world of football and although competitions such as the Premier League are undoubtedly big business, it can be sometimes hard to measure just how costly the pursuit of wins can be.

However, when numbers are involved, there is always a way to shine some light on the concept and with league wins being collected by each of the 20 clubs in the English top flight, this can also be connected to the market value of these outfits. 

This means by taking the purchase value of each member of the 20 Premier League squads, we can obtain a more democratic approach when it comes to measuring the price of victory and with that in mind, here is our first table of findings below. 

As you can see it is Luton who can pop the champagne corks in this first table and although their stint in the Premier League was the shortest one possible, they were largely efficient when it came to balance spend versus the cost of victory.

Manager Rob Edwards oversaw just under £18m worth of transfers and recorded six wins in the top tier at a cost of nearly £3m each. Then again, with more spend, maybe the Hatters could have stayed up at the first time of asking.

At the other end of the scale is the horror show which is otherwise known as Chelsea’s season. New owner Todd Boehly has not been afraid to splash the cash and the purchase value of the current Blues squad is £875m.

Big spenders off the field of play but unfortunately Chelsea were not big winners on it and with 18 wins to their name – a figure far too low for a club of their stature, each of those wins cost an eyewatering £48.6m.

Of course, this data will overlook academy graduates when looking at purchase value and with PSR rules becoming more prominent within the Premier League, a look to the youth may be even more important in the next couple of seasons.

While it was also a difficult season for Manchester United and although they may have won the FA Cup, their league form was below standard for the money spent under manager Erik ten Hag. £733m spent for 18 wins at £40m each.

Although Chelsea and Manchester United found themselves struggling at times, their struggles cannot be compared to that of Burnley and Sheffield United who are the next two teams at the bottom. While they were also the other two teams that were relegated back to the Championship. 

For both the Clarets and Blades it was not huge amount of expenditure that was their undoing, more a case of a distinct lack of victories. Just five and three respectively meaning each of those cost £31.7m and £37.1m respectively.

TOP TO BOTTOM

While with those two clubs in mind, we can look at the price of victory table in a different order and if were to stack the number of wins from highest to lowest, here is what that the same data sample would look like.

Here we can get a better idea of teams that are in comparative or competitive positions within the league table and see just what the differences are. Interestingly enough, there is a lot of grouping when it comes to the number of wins that teams earned during the 2023/24 Premier League season.

The two title chasing rivals Manchester City and Arsenal both won 28 matches across the 2023/24 campaign but it cost the former £28.4m per win compared to £20.6m for the latter. For further comparison, Liverpool with 24 wins meant theirs each cost £23.7m

Then Tottenham and Aston Villa find themselves on 20 wins each at £27.5m and £4.7m respectively (certainly costly for Tottenham when you consider they missed out on Champions League football) and then the next pack all find themselves with 18 wins each.

Newcastle's 18 wins cost may have only cost them £28m each when compared to both Manchester United and Chelsea, but it is the Magpies who are missing out on European football next time around.

FINDING THE CORRELATION

Of course, the best way to add further context to all of this is by comparing the two tables and seeing what correlation can be found. To do that, we must rank the clubs in terms of victory cost and league position at the time of writing.

In doing this, we can see the difference between the two metrics and what if anything it uncovers. For starters, we can see that spending large sums of money will push clubs towards the sharper end of the Premier League table.

Because when comparing the cost ranking against the league position and then listing these new values in order from top to bottom, you can see that each of the top six are filled by members of the big six, 

Of course, Newcastle have and will look to further disrupt this group in the coming years and the big six may well have to become the super seven if the Magpies march continues and they find themselves with the joint-sixth highest disparity when it comes to cost versus league positions. 

This means although the biggest clubs have the biggest disparity between the price of victory and their current league places, it will at least deliver European football and from there, these costs can be clawed back and more.

Therefore, the price of victory will be largely irrelevant to those teams at the sharper end of the table and because they have largely spent wisely (for the exception of Chelsea), they can continue to operate in continental circles as well.

Although when looking at the bottom of the table, the picture is far more jumbled and actually paints a picture of efficiency being the winner. Take Luton for example. Top of the cost per victory table, 18th in real life and a difference of minus seventeen positions.

Compared to the two other clubs that also suffered relegation out of the Premier League, there was far less of a positional disparity for Sheffield United and Burnley with each being minus two positions worse off. While there is also something to be said for finishing comfortable midtable. 

The trio of Fulham, Wolves and Brentford were never really called into any danger regarding the relegation battle and also found themselves within the top five clubs when it came to lowest cost per victory - something to be said for not splashing the cash unnecessarily perhaps?

Methodology

All data was gained from Transfermarkt, and the figures were attained by using the number of wins against the cost of the various squads.

Data correct as of 1st June 2024

Meet The Author

Researched and written by Dan Tracey ahead of Publishing by Steve Madgwick

Dan Tracey is a multi-talented writer, data analyst and podcaster whose six-year career in the sports data sphere has seen incredible successes. From helping UEFA create their annual technical reports to writing articles for Sports Betting Websites including sites like TheLinesUS and Goal - there's no shortage of areas where his expertise shines through! In addition he can be heard on podcasts lending an insightful voice as well as providing weekly betting angles - all culminating with him teaming up OLBG.com in the present day. Simply put: wherever you find angled data being crunched? You'll also likely find Dan not far behind!