Your data guide to football betting, Dan Tracey shows you where the numbers point before the market catches up.
There is often talk regarding the price of victory and how much success costs within the world of football and although competitions such as the Premier League are undoubtedly big business, it can be sometimes hard to measure just how costly the pursuit of wins can be.
However, when numbers are involved, there is always a way to shine some light on the concept and with league wins being collected by each of the 20 clubs in the English top flight, this can also be connected to the spending power of each of the clubs.
This means by taking the 2024/25 transfer outlay of each member of the 20 Premier League squads, we can obtain a more democratic approach when it comes to measuring the price of victory and with that in mind, here is our first table of findings below.
| Club | Purchases value | Wins | Costs per victory |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | £34,572,000 | 25 | £1,382,880 |
| Newcastle | £58,652,000 | 20 | £2,932,600 |
| Everton | £43,172,000 | 11 | £3,924,727 |
| Arsenal | £93,654,000 | 20 | £4,682,700 |
| Nottingham Forest | £90,730,000 | 19 | £4,775,263 |
| Fulham | £78,733,000 | 15 | £5,248,867 |
| Brentford | £84,624,000 | 16 | £5,289,000 |
| Crystal Palace | £79,034,000 | 13 | £6,079,538 |
| Bournemouth | £116,014,000 | 15 | £7,734,267 |
| Wolves | £106,984,000 | 12 | £8,915,333 |
| Aston Villa | £184,212,000 | 19 | £9,695,368 |
| Manchester City | £208,980,000 | 21 | £9,951,429 |
| West Ham | £124,184,000 | 11 | £11,289,455 |
| Chelsea | £242,434,000 | 20 | £12,121,700 |
| Leicester | £78,303,000 | 6 | £13,050,500 |
| Tottenham | £159,401,000 | 11 | £14,491,000 |
| Brighton | £242,047,000 | 16 | £15,127,938 |
| Manchester United | £211,818,000 | 11 | £19,256,182 |
| Ipswich | £131,227,400 | 4 | £32,806,850 |
| Southampton | £105,049,000 | 2 | £52,524,500 |
🍾🌍 Liverpool win the league! 🎉💪
As you can see it is Liverpool who can pop the champagne corks in this first table and with Arne Slot's men lifting the Premier League trophy at the end of the 2024/25 season, their relatively miminal outlay looked incredible value for money when positioned against league performance.
£34.5m spent across the two transfer windows and with 25 wins recorded on the way to the title, it meant cost per victory came in at £1,382,880.
At the other end of the scale is the horror show which is otherwise known as Southampton's season. The St Mary's outfit recorded the second-worst Premier League record of all time under a combination of three different managers and with an overall outlay of just over £105m, it meant each of their two wins would have cost them £52 million each.
If the Saints were the image of how to waste money, both Newcastle and Everton were examples of how to drive value.
The Magpies second in the list with a cost per victory of £2.9m, the Toffees coming in at just under £4m for their own outlay under both Sean Dyche and David Moyes.
Chelsea
With Southampton being joined by fellow relegated outfit Ipswich at the bottom of the table, their relegation status combined with a lack of value for money does not come as any real surprise but the positioning of Manchester United would have certainly raised a few eyebrows.
The Theatre of Dreams became the home of on-field nightmares under the stewardship of Erik ten Hag and then Ruben Amorim. A 16th place finish in the Premier League and a cost per victory of £19.2m places them in a relegation zone if this was considered to be the metric for sending teams through the trapdoor.
Then again, things were not all that better at Tottenham and although they may have landed Europa League success, it came at the cost of Premier League progress and the eventual departure of Ange Postecoglou as well. The North London outfit find themselves fifth bottom of this table with a cost per victory of £14.4m.
TOP TO BOTTOM
We can look at the price of victory table in a different order and if were to stack the number of wins from highest to lowest, here is what that the same data sample would look like.
| Club | Purchases value | Wins | Costs per victory |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | £34,572,000 | 25 | £1,382,880 |
| Manchester City | £208,980,000 | 21 | £9,951,429 |
| Newcastle | £58,652,000 | 20 | £2,932,600 |
| Arsenal | £93,654,000 | 20 | £4,682,700 |
| Chelsea | £242,434,000 | 20 | £12,121,700 |
| Nottingham Forest | £90,730,000 | 19 | £4,775,263 |
| Aston Villa | £184,212,000 | 19 | £9,695,368 |
| Brentford | £84,624,000 | 16 | £5,289,000 |
| Brighton | £242,047,000 | 16 | £15,127,938 |
| Fulham | £78,733,000 | 15 | £5,248,867 |
| Bournemouth | £116,014,000 | 15 | £7,734,267 |
| Crystal Palace | £79,034,000 | 13 | £6,079,538 |
| Wolves | £106,984,000 | 12 | £8,915,333 |
| Everton | £43,172,000 | 11 | £3,924,727 |
| West Ham | £124,184,000 | 11 | £11,289,455 |
| Tottenham | £159,401,000 | 11 | £14,491,000 |
| Manchester United | £211,818,000 | 11 | £19,256,182 |
| Leicester | £78,303,000 | 6 | £13,050,500 |
| Ipswich | £131,227,400 | 4 | £32,806,850 |
| Southampton | £105,049,000 | 2 | £52,524,500 |
Here we can get a better idea of teams that are in comparative or competitive positions within the league table and see just what the differences are. Interestingly enough, there is a lot of grouping when it comes to the number of wins that teams earned during the 2024/25 Premier League season.
At the same time, we can also see that Liverpool are a class apart and with 25 wins under their belt, they would eventually secure the Premier League title by some distance.
They did so by disposing Manchester City as kings of England and even though Pep Guardiola's men may have recorded the second highest number of league wins last season, it was not enough to see the Eithad outfit finish second in the table.
Their 21 wins ended up one higher than the trio of Newcastle, Arsenal and Chelsea. Each of these three teams securing Champions League football but the cost of each Magpies victory ended up £10m cheaper than that of the Blues for the same continental prize.
Drop down a step and both Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa both secured European football after securing 19 league wins each - a hit rate of 50%
While you will also notice a huge band of disappointment of the teams that recorded 11 wins. Everton can count themselves unfortunate to be a part of that pack after David Moyes' rescue job but for the trio of West Ham, Tottenham and Manchester United, each of their three managers will have to do a lot better next time around and also find better value for money.
FINDING THE CORRELATION
Of course, the best way to add further context to all of this is by comparing the two tables and seeing what correlation can be found. To do that, we must rank the clubs in terms of victory cost and league position at the time of writing.
| Club | Purchases value | Wins | Costs per victory | Cost Rank | League Position | Cost vs League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | £43,172,000 | 11 | £3,924,727 | 3 | 13 | -10 |
| Wolves | £106,984,000 | 12 | £8,915,333 | 10 | 16 | -6 |
| Fulham | £78,733,000 | 15 | £5,248,867 | 6 | 11 | -5 |
| Crystal Palace | £79,034,000 | 13 | £6,079,538 | 8 | 12 | -4 |
| Newcastle | £58,652,000 | 20 | £2,932,600 | 2 | 5 | -3 |
| Brentford | £84,624,000 | 16 | £5,289,000 | 7 | 10 | -3 |
| Leicester | £78,303,000 | 6 | £13,050,500 | 15 | 18 | -3 |
| Nottingham Forest | £90,730,000 | 19 | £4,775,263 | 5 | 7 | -2 |
| West Ham | £124,184,000 | 11 | £11,289,455 | 13 | 14 | -1 |
| Tottenham | £159,401,000 | 11 | £14,491,000 | 16 | 17 | -1 |
| Liverpool | £34,572,000 | 25 | £1,382,880 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Bournemouth | £116,014,000 | 15 | £7,734,267 | 9 | 9 | 0 |
| Ipswich | £131,227,400 | 4 | £32,806,850 | 19 | 19 | 0 |
| Southampton | £105,049,000 | 2 | £52,524,500 | 20 | 20 | 0 |
| Arsenal | £93,654,000 | 20 | £4,682,700 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Manchester United | £211,818,000 | 11 | £19,256,182 | 18 | 15 | 3 |
| Aston Villa | £184,212,000 | 19 | £9,695,368 | 11 | 6 | 5 |
| Manchester City | £208,980,000 | 21 | £9,951,429 | 12 | 3 | 9 |
| Brighton | £242,047,000 | 16 | £15,127,938 | 17 | 8 | 9 |
| Chelsea | £242,434,000 | 20 | £12,121,700 | 14 | 4 | 10 |
In doing this, we can see the difference between the two metrics and what if anything it uncovers. For starters, we can see that spending large sums of money will push clubs towards the sharper end of the Premier League table.
Because when comparing the cost ranking against the league position and then listing these new values in order from top to bottom, you can see that Everton found the most value for money last season.
Their cost per victory ranking was third, their league position 13th by comparison. 10 positions better off when looking at cost per victory but of course, their actual leage position does need to be taken into account.
No point being third in the cost per victory if it does not lead to success and this is where they must look across Merseyside for the gold standard.
Liverpool top of the Premier League shop and also top of the cost per victory rankings. Equlibrium when it matters most - winning both metrics and finding parity at the same time.
Bournemouth were another team to find parity as they finished ninth in both metrics, if their parity is a success story the same cannot be said for either Ipswich or Southampton.
Looking at the bottom of this table, the picture is far more jumbled and with Chelsea spending so much money, there was always scope for a huge disparity in the two metrics of league position and cost.
A fourth place finish for the eventual Europa Conference League winners, but only 14th when it came cost per victory. Considering they spenf £242m last season, anything short of league success was always going to create problems for owner Todd Boehly.
However, that £242m is arguably money that is very well spent and with the Blues back in the Champions League because of their league placing, it will allow the Stamford Brdige outfit to unlock future riches when competing against Europe's elite.
Methodology
All data was gained from Transfermarkt, and the figures were attained by using the number of wins against the cost of each club's respective transfer activity.
Data correct as of 8th July 2025
Meet The Author
Researched and written by Dan Tracey ahead of Publishing by Steve Madgwick
Dan Tracey is a multi-talented writer, data analyst and podcaster whose six-year career in the sports data sphere has seen incredible successes. From helping UEFA create their annual technical reports to writing articles for Sports Betting Websites including sites like TheLinesUS and Goal - there's no shortage of areas where his expertise shines through! In addition he can be heard on podcasts lending an insightful voice as well as providing weekly betting angles - all culminating with him teaming up OLBG.com in the present day. Simply put: wherever you find angled data being crunched? You'll also likely find Dan not far behind!
