Meet Europe’s Elite: The Top 10 xG Overperformers

Top 10 European xG Outperformers

Overperformance can be measured by the value of expected goals (xG) and how they correlate against the number of goals an individual player has scored. A striker may be red-hot in the final third but how clinical they are is arguably just as important.

Especially if you are someone who likes to place anytime goal accumulator bet before the weekend’s action and when looking at the current top 10 overperformers in Europe’s top five leagues, this may offer you the perfect insight before your next bet. 

Omar Marmoush – xG Profit 5.5

Topping the xG charts when it comes to overperformance is Omar Marmoush and although the Egyptian national team has its own king in Mohamed Salah, the Eintracht Frankfurt forward is doing a great job as crown prince.

With 11 goals to his name this season, Marmoush's xG is exactly half of that in total. In addition to that, his 11 goals have come from just 20 shots on target. Giving him a 55% hit rate when it comes to converting any efforts on goal. 

The 25-year-old seems to be in the form of his life at present and if he can continue it, it will only attract some of Europe's biggest names in either January or at the end of the season.

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Mason Greenwood - xG Profit 4.6

Second is Marseille forward Mason Greenwood with an xG profit of 4.6. The former Manchester United player has scored eight goals for his Ligue 1 employers and this has come from a total xG of 3.4.

Bryan Mbuemo - xG Profit 4.1

Third in the charts is the first Premier League represenative and it is not necessarily a name you would have predicted. The man in question is Bryan Mbuemo after his bright start to both his and Brentford's season. 

The Cameroonian international has scored eight goals in the 2024/25 campaign and is attracting the attention of clubs that find themselves higher up the Premier League food chain. Eight goals from a total of just 3.9 xG this season and an 80% hit rate when it comes to shots on targets versus goals.

Ayoze Perez - xG Profit 4.0

Sharing fourth place is Ayoze Perez and although he played for both Newcastle and Leicester in the Premier League, his career has gone through something of a renaissance since his return to Spanish football - one that has also meant being a part of the Spanish national team.

Now plying his trade for Villarreal, the Yellow Submarine forward has scored seven goals and has also converted every shot on target that he has taken this season. Perez's xG comes in at just 3.0, less than half the seven goals that he has scored in La Liga.

Mateo Retegui - xG Profit 4.0

Sharing fourth and rounding out the top five is Italian forward Mateo Retegui - the man who is currently the top scorer in Serie A for Atalanta and he has this mantle after already netting 11 goals at the start of the 2024/25 season. 

Retegui has created 14 shots on target this season, converting eleven giving him a 78.57% hit rate when he does take a chance and with a total xG of 7.0 since the start of the campaign, it means he has in profit by a full four goals at present.

Lee Kang-In - xG Profit 3.8

Although PSG's true superstar era may now be over, they are still the dominant force in French football and the reason for this is due to the talents that manager Luis Enrique can still call upon now that the trio of Lionel Messi, Neymar and Kylian Mbappe have moved on.

One of those talents is Lee Kang-In and with the South Korean forward having scored six goals this season, they have come from just seven shots on target and more importantly, a total xG of just 2.2 meaning that PSG's newest hero has a current profit of 3.8.

Harry Kane - xG Profit 3.6

Seventh in the standings at present is Harry Kane and although his own personal hunt for a trophy continues, his hunt for goals is always a largely positive one. A fantastic debut season in terms of output for Bayern Munich last season, output that is continuing this time around.

The former Tottenham forward has already scored 11 Bundesliga goals this season and the 31-year-old has only taken 13 shots on target this season. A hit rate of 84.6% at present and with his xG at a total of 7.4, it has generated a profit of 3.6.

Liam Delap - xG Profit 3.5

In joint-eighth is one of two Premier League strikers and the first of those is Liam Delap and although the surname is perhaps better known for Dad Rory's long throw-ins for Stoke, the Ipswich forward is now starting to make a name for himself.

Especially as he has already scored six goals for the promoted Tractor Boys and from nine shots on target, it means Delap has a 66.6% hit rate when shooting between the sticks and those half dozen goals have come from an xG of just 2.5 in total.

Chris Wood - xG Profit 3.5

The other Premier League striker in joint-eighth is Chris Wood and although he has always been a steady hand for a number of clubs in the top two tiers of English football, it is fair to say that the Nottingham Forest forward is seemingly in the form of his life.

The New Zealand international has scored eight goals in the Premier League as Forest have made a remarkable start to proceedings - especially after just avoiding relegation last time around. At a total xG of 4.5 for the season so far, it means Wood has a profit of 3.5 at present.

Keito Nakamura - xG Profit 3.3

Rounding out the top 10 is Japanese forward Keito Nakamura and with six league goals to his name for Reims, he has undoubtedly been one of, if not the key performer for the Ligue 1 outfit since the start of the season.

Nakamura has had nine shots on target in Ligue 1 this season, giving him a strike rate of 66.6% when having an effort between the posts and those six goals have come from an xG of 2.7 - giving the 24-year-old a current profit of 3.3.