Meet Europe’s Elite: The Top 10 xG Overperformers

Updated: 215 Football

The top 10 European footballers defying xG predictions. These elite players are outscoring their expected goals, showcasing exceptional precision and skill.

Meet Europe’s Elite: The Top 10 xG Overperformers
Dan Tracey Data Scientist and Football Editor

Writer, analyst, podcaster, Spurs fan. Three out of four is not bad. If there is a data angle, I will find it.

As the thrill for the European Golden Boot accelerates, a spotlight shines on a select group of football virtuosos excelling beyond the usual metrics—those who don't just score, but astoundingly outperform expected goals (xG) forecasts. Delving into the top 10 xG overachievers in Europe's premier leagues, this article offers a deep dive into the unparalleled accuracy and finesse of the continent's most lethal forwards and could help your betting predictions with online bookmakers.

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Top 10 European xG Outperformers

Overperformance can be measured by the value of expected goals (xG) and how they correlate against the number of goals an individual player has scored. A striker may be red-hot in the final third but how clinical they are is arguably just as important.

Especially if you are someone who likes to place anytime goal accumulator bet before the weekend’s action and when looking at the current top 10 overperformers in Europe’s top five leagues, this may offer you the perfect insight before your next bet. 

Rk Player Nation Pos Squad Comp Age Apps Per 90s Gls SoT xG G -xG
1 Lautaro Martínez ARG FW Inter Serie A 26 23.4 23 35 14.9 8.1
2 Serhou Guirassy GUI FW Stuttgart Bundesliga 28 16.6 22 28 14.7 7.3
3 Son Heung-min KOR FW Tottenham Premier League 31 23 14 28 8 6.0
4 Alexandre Lacazette FRA FW Lyon Ligue 1 32 19 13 25 7 6.0
5 Jude Bellingham ENG MF,FW Real Madrid La Liga 20 20.7 16 27 10.3 5.7
6 Harry Kane ENG FW Bayern Munich Bundesliga 30 25.5 31 51 25.6 5.4
7 Álex Grimaldo ESP DF Leverkusen Bundesliga 28 25.9 9 16 3.9 5.1
8 Kylian Mbappé FRA FW Paris S-G Ligue 1 25 20.5 24 44 19 5.0
9 Eren Dinkçi GER FW,MF Heidenheim Bundesliga 22 22.2 8 15 3.2 4.8
10 Jarrod Bowen ENG FW West Ham Premier League 27 28 14 30 9.3 4.7
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Lautaro Martinez – xG Profit 8.1

Top of the list of xG overperformers is Inter Milan’s Lautaro Martinez. The Argentine may have been part of the 2022 World Cup squad that reigned supreme in Qatar, he had a tournament to forget.

However, the 26-year-old has since been taking his frustrations out on opposition defences in Serie A. 23 goals to his name this season from just 35 shots on target, which in itself is efficient, even more so when he has an xG profit of 8.1. 

Therefore, when looking at all his efforts on goal throughout the 2023/24 campaign, the number crunchers would have only expected him to score 14.9. With such precision, he is currently worth 8.1 additional goals.

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Serhou Guirassy - xG Profit 7.3

Fourth in the list is the one man that is keeping Harry Kane honest in the race for the Bundesliga Golden Boot. That man is Serhou Guirassy and if he keeps scoring at the rate that he is, his Stuttgart paymasters are going to struggle to keep hold of him.

A move in the January transfer window did not take place, the same cannot be said for the summer and with the Guinea forward already scoring 22 Bundesliga goals this season, he finds himself nine behind current golden boy Kane.

Guirassy has had 28 shots on goal this season with a total expected value of 14.7. When positioned next to his 22 goals, that means an xG profit of 7.3 and soon Stuttgart will look to profit from his big money sale.

Son Heung-min - xG Profit 6.0

Lying joint-third is the man who has taken the role of Tottenham talisman from Harry Kane and it is fair to say that Son Heung-min is doing a decent job of it. The South Korean may have been previously waiting in the limelight but this current campaign has given him the opportunity to shine.

With 28 shots on target across the 2023/24 season, they are collectively only worth 8.0 xG, currently giving him a profit of 6.0 in the attacking third after scoring 14 league goals. If Tottenham can close the gap on rivals Aston Villa in the race for fourth, they may only profit even further. 

Alexandre Lacazette - xG Profit 6.0

The other name in joint-third in the list is former Arsenal forward Alexander Lacazette and with the French striker now plying his trade for Lyon, his goals have been one of rare highs in what has been a rather forgettable season for the ailing Ligue 1 outfit.

25 shots on target have currently been recorded for 2023/24 season and these are worth a collective value of 7.0. Compare this to the 13 goals that the 32-year-old has scored and this gives Lacazette not only a current profit of 6.0 goals but he is also scoring every other shot on target.

Jude Bellingham - xG Profit 5.7

One player who can confidently say that his move was worth every penny is Jude Bellingham. His transfer from Borussia Dortmund to Real Madrid was certainly high profile, his goals have kept the England midfielder in the spotlight since.

At just 20 years of age, observers were wondering how Bellingham would fare in the Spanish capital. The answer is that he has taken to La Liga like a duck to water and with 27 shots on target this season, he has netted an impressive 16 goals.

Those 27 shots should only have amassed 10.3 in terms of expected value, instead they have led to 16 entries on the scoresheet and with an xG profit of 5.7, Bellingham finds himself comfortably in the elite tier of European players. 

Harry Kane - xG Profit 5.4

Sixth in the standings at present is Harry Kane and if there were any doubts regarding his move to Bayern Munich and whether it would be a success, those doubts have long since been allayed. The former Tottenham forward has scored 31 goals, he has done so in less appearances.

26 appearances or 25.5 when calculating total minutes played and the per 90 value. Whatever metric you want to use here, Kane has scored five more goals than the number of games, he has also scored nearly six more goals than his expected value.

His 51 shots on target total up to an expected value of 25.6 and with 31 Bundesliga goals to his name, it means Kane is currently at an xG profit of 5.4 – highlighting that his move from Tottenham was worth every Euro spent.

Alex Grimaldo - xG Profit 5.1

In seventh is the first defender in our list and it just goes to show that it is not all about quantity in terms of expected goals, it can be a simple case of beating the difficulty in front of you – a statement that sums up Alex Grimaldo perfectly.

The 28-year-old has scored an impressive nine goals for Bayer Leverkusen this season and that contribution is helping them stay top of the Bundesliga. 16 shots on target, an expected value of just 3.9 in total and this has generated an impressive xG profit of 5.1

Kylian Mbappe - xG Profit 5.0

In eighth is the man who looks set to finally to move to Real Madrid in the summer and although Kylian Mbappe has not been a guaranteed starter for PSG in recent weeks, it is incredibly difficult to diminish his contribution to the current Ligue 1 leaders.

The 25-year-old has had 44 shots on target this season and from these, 24 goals have been recorded. Those 24 were only worth a total of 19.0 when it comes to the topic of xG and this leaves the 2018 World Cup winner with a current xG profit of 5.0.

Eren Dinkci - xG Profit 4.8

In ninth place is Eren Dincki and with the Heidenheim forward being part of the club's debut Bundesliga season, the 22-year-old has currently managed to score eight goals from just 15 shots on target. A rather efficient return when you consider that he scores a goal less than every other shot.

Those eight goals were worth an xG of just 3.2 and this means, a healthy overperformance in terms of expectation. When it comes to profit to the player who is comfortable playing in midfield or attack, he currently has as much as 4.8 additional goals in the bank.

Jarrod Bowen - xG Profit 4.7

In tenth place is West Ham's Jarrod Bowen and with the forward recently scoring his first treble for his current employers, the 27-year-old is doing his England hopes at the European Championships no harm at all. Even more so as the Hammer has now scored 14 league goals for the season.

14 league goals coming from 30 shots on target and that three lots of ten are worth a collective 9.3 worth of xG. This means, Bowen has currently generated an xG profit of 4.7 for the season and is quickly finding himself amongst illustrious company in these charts.

Editorial and Source Info

Dan Tracey

Dan Tracey

Data scientist and football editor

Dan Tracey is a multi-talented writer, data analyst and podcaster whose six-year career in the sports data sphere has seen incredible successes. From helping UEFA create their annual technical reports to writing articles for Sports Betting Websites including sites like TheLinesUS and Goal - there's no shortage of areas where his expertise shines through! In addition, he can be heard on podcasts lending an insightful voice as well as providing weekly betting angles - all culminating with him teaming up OLBG.com in the present day. Simply put: wherever you find angled data being crunched? You'll also likely find Dan not far behind!

👨‍🏫 Specialist Subjects🔬📚

Dan's specialist area is data; and lots of it! Wherever we need numbers to create our unique deep dive articles, Dan is our go-to. Dan is also a Tottenham Fan and a football commentator for Newcastle Blue Star

Source Data:

https://fbref.com/en/comps/Big5/shooting/players/Big-5-European-Leagues-Stats

Data correct as of 19th March 2024

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