Meet Europe’s Elite: The Top 10 xG Overperformers

Top 10 European xG Outperformers

Overperformance can be measured by the value of expected goals (xG) and how they correlate against the number of goals an individual player has scored. A striker may be red-hot in the final third but how clinical they are is arguably just as important.

Especially if you are someone who likes to place an anytime goal accumulator bet and with the 2024/25 campaign now at a close, here are the top 10 players you may want to cast an eye on at the start of next season. 

Patrick Schick - xG Profit 8.3

Top of the overperforming list is Czech forward Patrick Schick and although he may be better known for his long range goal against Scotland at Euro 2020, the Bayer Leverkusen forward has also been a consistent thorn in Bundesliga defences throughout Germany.

The 28-year-old forward scored 21 goals this season coming from 32 shots on target - a 65.2% strike rate and worth a total xG of 12.7 for the season. Deduct the 12.7 from 21 and this leaves the hitman with an xG profit of 8.3 goals for the whole campaign.

Bryan Mbuemo - xG Profit 7.7

Second in the charts is the another Premier League represenative and it is not necessarily a name you would have predicted. The man in question is Bryan Mbuemo and he has once again been integral to Brentford's season.

The Cameroonian international has scored 20 goals in the 2024/25 campaign and is attracting the attention of clubs that find themselves higher up the Premier League food chain - none more so than Manchester United (even though they finished lower down the table).

20 goals from a total of just 12.3 xG this season and an 58.82% hit rate when it comes to shots on targets versus goals - that big money move cannot be far away and especially if current boss Thomas Frank moves on to Tottenham.

Chris Wood - xG Profit 6.6

Third in the charts is Chris Wood and although he has always been a steady hand for a number of clubs in the top two tiers of English football, it is fair to say that the Nottingham Forest forward is seemingly in the form of his life.

The New Zealand international has scored 20 goals in the Premier League as Forest ended up having a remarkable season - even if there is slight disappointment at missing out on Champions League football on the final day of the Premier League season. 

At a total xG of 13.4 for the season, it means Wood recorded an xG profit of 6.6 and has firmly etched himself into Forest folklore. 

Matheus Cunha - xG Profit 6.4

Another Premier League player can be found in fourth place and after an impressive season for Wolves (even if his temper got the better of him at times), Matheus Cunha has now been rewarded with a move to Manchester United (then again, that could be punishment when looking at their performances under Ruben Amorim).

Potential purgatory or not, the 25-year-old has scored 15 goals this season and with a total xG of 8.6 to date, it means the Brazilian has a profit of 6.4 goals for the season. 

Ayoze Perez - xG Profit 6.3

Sitting in fith is a name that will likely be familiar to Newcastle and Leicester supporters and that name is Ayoze Perez. A name that finds himself fifth on the list at the end of the season and he does so after scoring 19 goals for current employers Villarreal. 

However, it is not just the 19 goals which have placed Perez in the top five, it is also the fact they totaled just 12.7 in terms of xG. A profit of 6.3 and proof that there is always life in strikers after they move on from the Premier League. 

Omar Marmoush – xG Profit 6.2

Sharing sixth in the charts when it comes to overperformance is Omar Marmoush and although the Egyptian national team has its own king in Mohamed Salah, the now Manchester City forward is doing a great job as crown prince.

With 15 goals to his name this season, Marmoush's output at Eintracht Frankfurt xG was enough to secure him a January move to the Etihad.

Before making the switch to the Etihad, Marmoush scored 15 goals from just 34 shots on target and with a total xG of 8.8 it means a profit of 6.2.

Mateo Retegui - xG Profit 6.1

Seventh in the list is Mateo Retegui - the man who is finished as the top scorer in Serie A for Atalanta and he has this mantle after netting 25 goals across the 2024/25 season.

Retegui has created 32 shots on target this season, converting 23 giving him a 78.12% hit rate when he does take a chance and with a total xG of 18.9 since the start of the campaign, it means he has a profit of just over six goals at the end of the campaign.

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Harry Kane - xG Profit 5.7

Finally getting his hands on major silverware is Harry Kane and due to his goalscoring output at Bayern Munich, the England captain has also managed to record a eighth-place finish when it comes to overperforming the expected goals metric.

The 31-year-old scored 26 goals as Bayern wrestled back the Bundesliga crown and with these 26 goals from a toal of 20.3 xG, the former Tottenham man recorded a profit of 5.3 goals during his second season in Germany.

Oihan Sancet - xG Profit 5.3

Ninth in the list and highest-ranked pure midfielder is Oihan Sancet. The Athletic Club player has scored an impressive 15 goals across this season's La Liga and this comes from a total xG of 9.7, giving the 24-year-old a current profit of 5.3

Kylian Mbappe - xG Profit 5.1

Rounding out the top 10 and arguably wishing he never left PSG after their Champions League success is Kylian Mbappe. Missing out on European success with his former employers, missing out on La Liga success with his current ones, the Real Madrid icon has to make do with rounding out our list of goalscoring forwards.

The 25-year-old managed a rather impressive 31 La Liga goals in his debut season for Los Blancos, a tally that was worth a total of 25.9 xG and this subsequently recorded a profit of 5.1 goals for the campaign.