Expected Goals (xG) Betting Explained

What is xG and can it help betting on games? Expected goals (xG) is a measurement of chances created in a match. It assigns a figure based on how good the chance was based on historical similar chances. That figure is the (xG).

Expected Goals (xG) Betting Explained

Expected Goals Calculation (xG)

  • xG is a measurement of the quality of a goalscoring chance.  

  • When a chance is created in football it is analysed and given an xG figure. 

  • These figures are then totalled at the end of the game to give an xG figure for the game. 

  • The xG figures are based on data research that have measured 0000's of historical shots.

  • They have already calculated the percentage chance of a goal being scored from that position of play from the database, it is then given an xG figure. 

  • If a chance was a golden opportunity and would normally be scored it receives a high (xG) figure, if it was a speculative long-range shot it would be given a much lower (xG) figure. 

  • E.G: If a goal opportunity had an 80% chance of being scored then the xG would be measured as 0.8.

  • E.G: If a goal opportunity had a 30% chance of being scored then the xG would be measured as 0.3.

  • E.G: A penalty has a 76% chance of being scored, the xG figure is 0.76.

xG in football is not a golden bullet but can be of assistance to you when deciding on your bets.
Best Betting Sites

The xG figure is calculated based on a range of variables including:

  • The distance the shot was taken from the goal.

  • Did the chance come from open play.

  • Was it a shot or a header

  • The angle the shot came from. 

xG Example Matches

Below is an example from the 2020/21 Championship game between Wycombe and Queens Park Rangers. 

Match Result XG
Wycombe  1 1.99
QPR 1 0.61

You can see that Wycombe Wanderers based on the quality of chances created were a tad unfortunate not to win the game and that QPR were fortunate to get the draw based on the range of chances created. 

In that weekend of games, Wycombe had the highest XG of any home team. 

You can see below how another game in the Championship that weekend panned out.

Match Result XG
Huddersfield 2 1.03
Watford 0 3.25

In this game, you can see that on the quality of chances created in the game Watford should have won. 

Huddersfield's 2 goals came from a mistake by the goalkeeper and an own goal, whereas Watford had 21 goal attempts, and had the highest xG of any away team that weekend.  

That result cost the Watford manager his job, but maybe the owners should have looked at the xG before taking action?

In the two examples above you can see that despite creating a lot neither side with the higher xG won the game, but a high xG could point you in the right direction when placing future bets on team, especially if that team is consistently receiving a high xG.

However, you will still need to use all your gleaned knowledge on assessing a football match when looking to strike winning bets.

Bookmakers xG

The xG figures are available from a range of websites and are published once the games are finished. 

There is a range of online xG tables so you can check the previous home and away performance. 

The Bookmakers

You should see the bookie's odds compilers taking into account the most recent xG figures. These measurements will be reflected in their odds

You can quickly see how a team performed in a game based on chances created, and the quality of those chances. 

However, the bookmakers also have access to xG and you can expect their odds in future games to reflect recent xG measurements. 

This is why it is so important to undertake more of your own research when placing a football bet. 

You may consider:

  • Historical XG 
  • Poisson Theory
  • Home and Away Form
  • Current Form
  • Opposition Quality
  • Results
  • Injury News
  • Players Suspended
  • Quality of Bench
  • League Position
  • Betting Odds
  • Momentum
  • Historical Form
  • In-Play Odds

Many OLBG tipsters already do this and you can see the most successful football tipsters via the monthly tables.

You can tip on a range of leagues and then place bets directly from OLBG at the best prices.   

The OLBG forum has a dedicated xG discussion thread, please do add your thoughts and opinions on that thread. 

No Comments

There are no comments here. Be the first to comment...

Please login or register to reply to this blog

By using this site you confirm you are 18+ and consent to our use of cookies and processing of personal data as set out in our Privacy Policy
Got it!

We detected you are connecting from United States. We have a different section in our site for users from your country.

You are not logged in.
__user_name_placeholder__ avatar Hi, username! Logout