5 Common Misconceptions Punters Should Be Wary Of

1. “At 50/1, he offers great value in this race"

‘Value' is every punter's favourite word and an apparent standard upon which people judge whether a particular horse is worthy of a bet. 

The OLBG betting school has a huge article just on this subject called "Become An Expert In Value Betting"

Over the long term finding value bets will prove to be a successful method, but it would appear that the meaning of value has been distorted to a point where it is now really no more than a convenient phrase to most.

A value bet is one where the odds that are on offer are greater than the odds should be, the market is underestimating that horses chances of winning that race. 

A lot of punters would assume that a value bet has to be a big price, presumably because a big run from an outsider in the field has been made fashionable by the media

A 100/1 winner gets a lot of coverage, whereas a 3/1 winner who should have been a 1/3 shot tends not to.

A 50/1 chance has just under 2% chance of winning the race according to the market. 

He only offers value if he has more than a 2% chance of winning the race.

 If an even-money shot wins by 50L no doubt there wouldn't be as nearly many people preaching about how much value he was as there ought to be.

 In technical terms, a horse-trading at Evens is valued by the market as having a 50% chance of winning the race. If that horse has more than a 50% chance of winning then that is a value bet.

TIP:  One way of trying to decipher whether a short-priced favourite still offers value is to invert that horse's odds.

Ask yourself would you rather back the rest of the field at those odds.

For example, Sprinter Sacre trades at 1/4 (80% chance)

Would you rather back him at that price or the rest of the field at 4/1 (20% chance)? 

If the race was run ten times, would Sprinter Sacre win 8 or more times out of 10? 

If you think he would, 1/4 is still a value bet

2. “The yard is in flying form at the moment"

The form of a yard is often a common pointer used by punters to evaluate a horse's chance in a race. 

Whilst this can be a useful guide, it is important to be selective in how you use that information. 

Arguably, yard form is actually of greater significance when looking at laying horses. 

A yard out of form could point to there being a problem in a yard, perhaps illness, which may indicate that the horses may not run up to form.

An ‘out of form' yard is seemingly judged on winners alone, and this can be very misleading. 

If 5 horses from a yard were all sent off 25/1 chances, all finishing in the top 3 without winning, is it accurate to say that the yard is out of form? clearly it is not. 

Similarly, with ‘in-form' yards, it is important to not get carried away with basic stats and figures, and again often media hype, and look more closely at the yards recent runners.

Recently David O'Meara was flagged up as being in great form, with winner after winner. 

This table shows his form since the beginning of the month…

Date	Race	Horse	Weight	Result	Odds
11-Jan-13	Wol 12 St 3 Hcp 7K (F)	Art History	9 - 10	7/7 , Mica Mika (6L)	9/2
08-Jan-13	Wol 9 St 6 Hcp 2K (F)	Rosie's Lady	9 - 10 (ex12)	8/13 , Kyllachykov (6¾L)	10/11 fav
08-Jan-13	Wol 9 St 5 Mdn 3K (F)	Frontier Fighter	9 - 6	1/6 , Cape Crossing (3½L)	10/11 fav
07-Jan-13	Wol 12 St 6 HcpDiv2 2K (F)	Icy Quiet	9 - 4	3/11 , Easydoesit (1¼L)	11/4 fav
07-Jan-13	Wol 12 St 6 HcpDiv1 2K (F)	Rosie's Lady	9 - 8 (ex6)	1/10 , Seawood (5L)	5/4 fav
06-Jan-13	Wol 12 St 6 Sell 2K (F)	Activate	9 - 4	1/5 , Turjuman (3¾L)	4/7 fav
06-Jan-13	Wol 9 St 6 Hcp 2K (F)	Berlusca	9 - 8 (ex6)	1/9 , Scamperdale (½)	8/13 fav
05-Jan-13	Ncs 16 Hy 6 4-7yNHF 2K (F)	Maison De Ville	11 - 0	3/7 , Flemens Pride (5¾L)	13/8 fav
05-Jan-13	Lin 5 St 5 3y Hcp 3K (F)	Golden Flower	8 - 11	1/4 , Layla's Oasis (1¼L)	4/5 fav
04-Jan-13	Wol 9 St 6 Hcp 2K (F)	Berlusca	9 - 2	1/10 , Big Sylv (2¼L)	7/2 jfav
04-Jan-13	Sth 6 St 6 Hcp 2K (F)	Miss Bunter	9 - 2 (ex6)	1/6 , Sandy Lane (hd)	9/4 2fav
03-Jan-13	Wol 6 St 5 3y Claim 3K (F)	Hiddon Coin	9 - 0	1/4 , Windforpower (2L)	13/8 2fav
02-Jan-13	Wol 5 St 6 Hcp 2K (F)	Miss Bunter	9 - 5	1/7 , Ryedale Dancer (1L)	11/10 fav
02-Jan-13	Wol 9 St 6 Claim 2K (F)	Classic Colori	9 - 10	3/7 , Noble Jack (6L)	7/1
01-Jan-13	Wol 9 St 6 Hcp 2K (F)	Rosie's Lady	9 - 2	1/12 , Justcallmehandsome (2¾L)	11/2

Clearly the yard was in good form that is undeniable, but if you look closely at the runners, 10 of the 15 runners were favourites. 

They were expected to win and several of the horses actually ran multiple times. 

A perfect example of when the form of a yard is taken out of context is shown by the horse at the top of the list, Art History. 

He had shown no recent form and the main reason people were suggesting he could run well was the ‘stable form'. He was backed in the market down to 9/2, but as his form suggested, he trailed home in last place.

TIP: There is nothing to say that yard form isn't a useful pointer to a horses chances, but a horse cannot miraculously get better because other horses in the yard are running well. 

Strong yard form may well indicate that the horses are likely to run up to form, and so if you fancy a horse from the yard then it may be reassuring that the horses have been running up to their ability. 

However, yard form is no reason to back a horse when that is the only reason you are backing the horse, especially since the ‘great form' is likely to result in a shorter price being available which may not represent the horses true chance

3. “The money has come for this one"

There are certain times when a move for a horse cannot be ignored however it is folly to suggest that market moves are always a sign of what is to come. 

I would argue that all market moves are worth ignoring, as often by the time you realise that a gamble is taking place the value has gone from the price. 

In addition to that of course when a gamble is landed a big fuss is made, however, there are far more which fail and although you don't get to hear about them, it illustrates how dangerous it can be to blindly follow a market move

More to the point however I have noticed time and time again that those punters who don't mind following the money in a market can often be lead astray, often by the on-course markets.

 Anyone who does wish to keep a close eye on a market move needs to keep an eye on the exchange market as well as the regular markets. 

You will often see a horse on the first show open up at 7/1 and go off 9/2. gamble? Well perhaps, but if you watch the markets sometimes that move is not reflected on the exchanges. 

A horse could barely move at all on Betfair and yet be the subject of a ‘gamble on-course'.

4. “He looked a certain winner before he fell last time out"

This is a phrase that is used all the time and of course it does have its merits, however it is worth assessing what the effect of that fall has had on the horse's price in the market next time out. 

If there is a situation where two horses are together at the last fence, and one of them falls, for all that it appeared certain which horse would win there is no definite way of knowing what the result would have been.

Now it may well be that the horse who fell would have won, and if in his next race the market seems to have ignored this then this may offer some value in the market. 

If however the market has priced it up as if the horse has won, then it could be that the horse is trading at too short a price. 

Horses are animals and there are hundreds of races every year in which the horse traveling like a winner gets beat. 

Some horses pull themselves up in-front or don't find anything off the bridle so it is dangerous to assume what would have happened if there had not been a fall.

TIP: Punters often fall into a trap, especially when they have backed a horse, to follow a horse next time out if they have had a close miss in the previous race. 

If the horse has been undervalued in their next race then this can be rewarding, however if a horse is priced up as if it had won last time out, for all that it may win this time, you must assess the horses chances like any other race. 

If there is no value in the price then as much as you may have an ‘I knew that would win this time!' moment after the race, in the long term not backing horses who are overvalued by the market will be profitable

5. “He is 5lb better off for a 1L defeat so he should reverse the form"

Following on from the last point it isn't always just as easy as assuming things would have been different under different circumstances when you are dealing with horses. 

I would argue that the running style, the draw, or the change of jockey could have more relevance to the chances of re-opposing horses, but clearly there are occasions when even small weight differences seem to have an effect. 

However, it is important to take each incident in isolation and not just assume that all horses will react in the same way.

I think Big Buck's is a good illustration of how a swing in the weights will not always guarantee a different result.

 Before he won his first World Hurdle back in 2009 he faced Punchestowns in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham.

He beat him by 4L that day getting 8lb off his rival. 

After that race, it was widely presumed that Punchestowns would reverse that form back at Cheltenham off level weights however as well all know that did not happen. 

Big Buck's is a horse that tends to idle once he is in front, whether he is carrying 20lb more or less than his nearest rival he would no doubt do exactly the same.

TIP: A weight swing can affect the outcome of a race but rather than just looking at the distance between the two re-opposing horses and the new weights being carried, have a look at the individual horses. 

Is the winner a horse who is likely to pull up in-front but has more in hand than it would initially seem? 

Is the runner-up a horse who doesn't win very often, is a 4lb weight swing enough to make the horse go past the other? 

Did a horse meet trouble in the last race or is he better drawn this time, which could negate the weight swing?

None of these common phrases are necessarily wrong and all can be put to effective use.

 However it is important as a punter to understand why certain things are a pointer to a positive performance and instead of generalising and assuming that something will happen, a true understanding of concepts rather than following the perceived view will leave you in a strong punting position

Horse Racing Misconceptions Round Up

If you have been betting even for a short period of time then you will come across plenty of these types of truisms. 

Pundits and Presenters are some of the worst culprits for uttering these kinds of misconceptions, and then repeating them until they become fact! 

I could have added another 10 or 15 but thought the above 5 misconceptions were the most common.  

So always be wary when you hear the above, and dig deeper, you and your bank balance will not regret it. 

If you wish to read more about betting please visit the OLBG betting school article Horse Racing Form Made Easy.