Ante-Post betting - is it still a viable betting medium?

Ante-Post betting has lost some of its interest in recent years with the bookmakers more clued up than ever, meaning there are fewer value ante-post prices. 

However, that doesn't mean that there will be instances where an ante-post bet can be struck and value had. 

It should always be considered alongside other facets of your overall horse racing form study.

Cheltenham Festival Excitement

It's 8am on Tuesday morning at the Cheltenham Festival, I'm sitting down to watch "the morning line" before heading to Cheltenham for the OLBG meet-up. 

Rich Ricci is on the show, and they ask him about Vautour. 

Given Ricci had stated many times "He'll go for the Gold Cup or stay at home", I thought this was just a quick ice-breaker before they discussed his big 4 chances on day 1. 

Then Ricci said they'd had a re-think and that he'd go for the Ryanair instead, and you could hear the ante-post slip's being ripping up all around the UK and Ireland. 

Obviously Ricci has the right to change plans as he sees fit, there is no problem with that, but he may regret how certain he was in not even entertaining plans of the Ryanair as a back-up. 

This obviously has a knock-on effect for punters who backed other horses in the Ryanair (like myself with Valseur Lido), thinking Vautour had no chance of turning up.

There will be the odd success story I'm sure (anyone who had Min at 50/1 each-way got a hell of a ride over the winter months, plus a tidy profit in the end) but it's become increasingly difficult to find a decent ante-post wager due to two factors, firstly the dominance of Willie Mullins and secondly the extra races at the festival. 

A horse like Black Hercules ran out a tidy winner of the JLT chase at 4/1, but until his fall in a prep run a month beforehand he was a strong favourite for the 4-mile national hunt chase. It was then decided he would either go for the JLT or the RSA, with connections choosing wisely and being rewarded with a win. 

Given he had 3 legitimate targets some punters say to back him in multiple races, but you'd need 14/1 on all 3 races just to get the same value as the 4/1 S.P. 

Given the risk of him being injured and missing the festival, you'd need far bigger ante-post odds to offset the risk, and bookmakers aren't willing to offer such juicy prices on well-regarded Mullins horses. Then at the end of it all, if you get your horse there it still needs to win!

Vroum Vroum Mag was an even harder puzzle to solve. 

She was in the OLBG mares hurdle (back-up to Annie Power), Ryanair chase (they ended up sending Vautour there), and the World Hurdle (surely she wouldn't be able to live with Thistlecrack). 

Until Faugheen's injury it was all but certain Annie Power would run in the OLBG mares hurdle, so punters may have been splitting their stakes on the other 2 options given Mullins didn't have obvious options in those races. 

Once Annie Power got re-routed Vroum Vroum Mag was instantly a short price for the OLBG mares hurdle and your bets on the other 2 races are down.

I was at a preview night the week before the festival when Graham Wylie was asked about Yorkhill's likely target, and he said "Willie will tell me next Monday!". If the owner doesn't know which race his horse will run in a week before the festival, then that shows how difficult it is for punters to second guess what's going to happen. 

The thinking behind keeping Yorkhill back for the Neptune was that they wanted Ruby to ride, and that has to be factored into the thinking when placing a bet. 

This adds another problem, as Mullins has many different top horses for the novice events, and sometimes the pecking order isn't established to later on in the season. Yorkhill's winning S.P was 3/1, so ante-post you'd need 11/1 on each of the 3 novice races just to match the S.P.

Even having horses campaigned over a certain trip doesn't necessarily mean that they will run over that trip at the festival. Long Dog (R.I.P) won over 2 and 2 1/2 miles before contesting the 3-mile Albert Bartlett race. 

Yorkhill had won a grade 1 over 2 miles but ran in the 2 mile 4 race at the festival. Annie Power hadn't run over the minimum trip for 5 races before dropping back to 2 miles and winning the champion hurdle. 

Then we find another issue with ante-post betting, last year we had the extreme example of Coneygree winning the Gold Cup when he hadn't ever been entered in the race until he was supplemented at the last minute. 

I feel for those punters who'd made an ante-post book during the season and then the 7/1 winner turns out to be a horse who wasn't entered during the entire winter.

 I still think there is a place for ante-post betting, but I think my strategy will be to avoid the Mullins horses as their participation in races is dependant on what races other horses in the yard will go for.

This will obviously be a strategy that will have it's setbacks when the Mullins hype horses turn out to be as good as the rumour mill says they are (15 winners in the last 2 years shows why his horses are well-supported), but there are 2 benefits to looking away from his horses in the ante-post markets.

 Firstly, other trainers have less high-profile horses in their yard so will have a festival target earmarked from a long way out. You could have been fairly certain which races horses such as Altior, Yanworth, Thistlecrack, and Barters Hill were going to end up at from a long way out, so you can bet with a little bit more security that if they make it to the festival unscathed then they'll at least be running in the race you've backed them for. 

Secondly, due to the Mullins dominance, you'll be able to secure a better price on horses he doesn't train. Altior's price was held up throughout the whole season due to Min being well-supported, Yanworth and Thistlecrack were still available at decent prices prior to their victory on trials day despite having strong form and Barters Hill was priced up similar to a Mullins horse in Up For Review when he had stronger bumper form and was still unbeaten. 

Only 2 of these horses won but as they only have 1 ante-post target a punter would have secured a decent profit backing them when they'd shown themselves capable of form that would mean they could be competitive in festival races.

There is always that excitement about getting a big price about a horse ante-post and seeing the odds tumble in the lead-up to the event. It can be a more emotive bet compared to an analytical bet due to the massive potential pay-off they can produce. 

Ante-post bets such as Min this year, the big 4 Mullins horses last year or those who had fancy prices about Vautour and Faugheen in their novice hurdle year will have got the buzz of "beating the market" and that is why ante-post bets will continue to be popular, but it appears to be more difficult to get to the festival with "live" bets in the last few years.

• Did any OLBG members have a successful festival from an ante-post perspective? 
• Is there a certain strategy you stick to or do you go on a horse-by-horse basis? 
• Will you continue to back ante-post next winter in the lead-up to the festival?

If you are new to betting please check out the betting school article horse racing form made easy.