5:25 Warwick Tips

Sits just 1lb above his last winning mark. Coming into this off the back of a very good effort last time out. He's 3 from 3 at this venue. 2 from 2 over course and distance. This is clearly a course that suits him very well. His most recent win rates decent form. He beat Irish Hill quite comfortably at Wincanton off a 1lb lower mark. That horse is rated 133, and actually won off a mark of 131 just 3 months ago. Clearly, he's beaten a decent horse. He's shown very little since then. That was until he ran at Newton Abbot just 7 days ago. With the first-time blinkers on, he ran a cracker behind the in-form American Land. Beaten just over 2 lengths by the winner, back in 3rd place. The blinkers are left on again this time. If they work again, with the return to his favorite course being a plus, I think he can go well off this type of mark.

The model I run suggests Honneur D'Ajonc can win this race. Honneur D'Ajonc lines up with the second highest RPR of the 7-runner field. It has an assigned official ranking near middle order, and that leaves a reasonable weight being carried over this 2m 5f. Alex Chadwick on board relieves a further 5 lbs, taking the total weight carried down towards the lower order of the 7 runners. It is the only horse in this field who has shown recent signs of form apart from Crystal Glance, placing and coming 2nd 15 days ago. There are a couple of runners here who have not raced in a long time. The model has issued a moderate confidence reading. 1.0 pt bet on a 0-4 scale.

The 6yo has a progressive-looking profile, with 3 wins over hurdles. A big run two starts back, 2nd of 9, beaten just 2L, and the front three had pulled 13L clear of the rest in a good quality 0-140 rated handicap. The highest rival in this race is 115. The winner from that race has boosted the form since and is rated 15lb higher now. It was his first run over this 21f trip, and he has similar good ground again. Excuses last time out - heavy ground. Comes here fresh after a 4-month break.

A mark of 108 looks rather eye-catching for one that has previously been as high as 116. Fell two out when last seen 43 days ago, holding every chance at the time. That was over a slightly shorter trip than today's, with the step back up here being in favor.