3:10 Warwick Tips

Sean Bowen's only ride in this meeting piques my interest here. Only one booking for the day? There must be a huge chance that the market thinks he can win. With other horses in this race that have achieved much more, what makes this one special? Is he today's dark horse? The market seems to think so.

The model I run suggests Rukaana should win this race. This model result has been driven by Rukaana having the joint highest RPR of this 8-runner field. It has a middle-order official ranking, meaning the mark should be reasonable relative to RPR. Rukaana subsequently carries a middle-order amount of weights compared to the other runners. Rukaana ran a good second 12 days ago and looks to go one better here in good form. The model predicts this race to be very tight and therefore only issued a low confidence reading. For that reason, 0.5 pts bet on a scale of 0-4.

The 5-year-old ran well in 3 of his 5 hurdles races last year, despite not winning. Back from a 7-month break four weeks ago, he was 2nd of 10, hampered at the last hurdle, not getting to the winner. But it was against much stronger rivals than what he now faces. He can improve for the run, top yard/jockey, same handicap mark, and he likes the quicker ground.

There's every chance the new stable does the trick for Mr Le Philosophe as the yard is very good at transforming them. I still think at this price, and with some chips to spend from yesterday's winnings, DREAMS FLED AWAY is worth a shout at this price. Showed some promise at Fakenham from two pounds higher last October, and if he's got over a bad day all around on return to racing at Kempton last time out, he could bounce back.