7:10 Sedgefield Tips

Drops in grade after C&D win earlier in April and last time out dominant display in a Class 4 event. Ran on with plenty to spare and raised only 6 lb for this performance. Back in C5 company over a track he clearly likes - has been a dominant winner since wind surgery and cheekpieces went on - today's claimer takes off 7 lb.

Laravie had a strong race in February on this course with a second place in a strong field. I give Laravie a good chance to grab the win in the race today.

The model I run suggests Lillistar can win what looks like a fairly open race. Lillistar has the second highest RPR ranking of the 7 runners but goes out carrying the significantly lower of the weights over this 2m 3f trip. Other runners have claiming jockeys on board, which muddies the water somewhat, but Lillistar still carries the lowest amount when lining up, taking the total weight differential into consideration.

Super unlucky to bump into Mermaids Cave at the beginning of her winning run (now 25lb higher) at Fontwell and the betting seemed to know that the eight-year-old was subsequently finished for the season. The Jamie Snowden-trained inmate makes her return after a 334-day absence, but I doubt she will be lacking for fitness on this long journey north. Unbelievable chance if reproducing her penultimate second.