7:35 Newcastle Tips

Vintage Clarets has been in good form recently, but his handicap mark has continued to drop. There will be headwind at Newcastle, so I'm hoping the jockey decides to follow his neighbour Bergerac who can give him a nice lead into the race.

High draws favored over CD here. Won this last year off 88 from the same stall, sat up with the pace that day and will very likely do the same. Not many who like to be prominent here and pace will likely be disputed by Bergerac, Paddys Day, and Archduke Ferdinand (back from his assassination). Has led in the past so could do so again here. Also has won off 93 in the past and appears to be in similar form so rise wouldn't be majorly off-putting in one that should be run to suit, 888 offering 11/2 at time of writing 4 places each way.

Jakajaro has been running in group races and is down in class. Wouldn't have liked Windsor on his return run, and I expect a bold showing on this galloping track.

Decent enough price for a horse who meets the profiles of previous winners and is back to his last winning mark. That was at Nottingham in September on Heavy and therefore has a bit of stamina about him which will help him at this stiff track.

I can’t quite grasp the price of PADDY’S DAY here at 11/1 (4 places). Vintage Clarets is far too short given R Fahey’s 13% SR (A/E 0.32) with favourites over 5f at Newcastle and W Fentiman’s 20% SR (A/E 0.51) generally on favs. I’m fully respecting of Bergerac but he’s got a 4lb penalty to carry for a win LTO at Hamilton and was firmly put in his place when running against PD in March, meanwhile Jakajaro has to overcome 9% SR (A/E 0.34) with fancied runners on the AW in summer. This looks one for an each way play and the N Tinkler-trained gelding makes the most appeal; he won four races in a row over C&D at the beginning of the year, the most recent coming off just a 2lb lower mark. The 5yo ran well enough on his two starts since, both on turf, but it’s safe to say that the AW is more his bag (35% SR, A/E 1.91) so the switch back is a huge positive and 5lb claimer A Jary’s 18% SR (A/E 1.78) over 5f here at Newcastle adds further confidence.

Winner at Southwell in March. Remained in decent form thereafter both on turf and the all weather until below par in the Epsom Dash last time but that's easily forgiven so should run well this evening.

An 8-time career sprint winner whose last win came over this CD in a Class 3 handicap on the final start last season in November. In good form this year and has finished a close second on all of the last 3 starts on turf. Looks an each-way player today returned to this venue.