2:00 Newbury Tips

Aiden O'Brien is operating at an incredible 40% strike rate in his last 50 runners (20 winners) and this very well bred colt looks great value to me at 4/1 despite the competitive nature of the race. His 2nd in a maiden on his debut no less had genuine 100 rated horses back in 3rd and 4th so he is surely worthy of interest off 96 in this handicap. That was his first ever start and he's going to have improved since then so with Ryan Moore booked again (he's won on the horse before), this one looks the clear one they all have to beat.

Three career runs for the 3yo, solid efforts in defeat. Back from a 6 month break four weeks ago, 2nd of 12 on the AW in novice company, beaten just a shd - decent level of form, and he’s in good shape. His debut was on quick ground last summer, 4th of 13 in a good contest. He has ability, can improve for the return run and his opening handicap mark of 83 gives him every chance.

ASMEN WARRIOR looks a fair price for a race-fit Saxon Warrior-sired three year old. He makes his handicap debut from a workable looking opening mark and coming from a strong dual-purpose trainer combination he merits a market check.

Nebras has finished runner-up in its two runs this season and has been dropped 2 lb. But with Hollie Doyle on board, if improving for those runs, it could certainly give the Ballydoyle runner a decent run for the top prize.

This race used to always fall on FA Cup Final day and I have had some good winners over the years. Newmarket based trainer Roger Varian has a live-chance with Saddadd.

ERNST BLOFELD showed plenty to win his AW maiden at Kempton, shaping like a group animal. He ran well at Newmarket on his latest start, but the track didn't suit. Newbury will play more to his strengths, and he can go well here in a race that lacks depth considering its heritage.

Beat Merchant into 3rd who flew home at York this week suggesting a 4lb rise isn’t insurmountable up in class here. He showed a good attitude to get back up when headed and Rossa reached for the whip. He could gallop away in front off this light weight, and whilst a few more of these certainly have more significant upside to them, I’d hope he could catch them out off the front in a race lacking pace overall. Could snag a drift given he’s bottom weight and potentially outclassed, but I think he’s worthy of his chance in what is a fairly open market.