5:00 Downpatrick Tips

Looked potentially smart when winning his bumper just over a year ago. Plenty of decent horses have come out of that race subsequently. Has since had 2 runs over hurdles, including on reappearance last time when runner-up. Will appreciate the step up in trip today and is the one to beat.

Hills Of Glory was just pipped at the post at Naas in December over this distance in what was to date the closest call in search of the maiden win. It is that showing which provides the basis for siding with here at a similar price.

Jazz De Cotte has some decent form but is giving weight away to all but one rival. Perhaps his stablemate, Welcome Back, can get his jumping together and begin to realize his undoubted potential.

ECO PETE won a bumper race at this course in December 2021. His last two races have been over fences, but prior to that, he ran here over 22f. That race was last August where he finished 6th of 7 behind Intense Approach. Dropped in trip today, he may be able to gain a first hurdle win on his 11th attempt. He has previously finished placed three times. His official rating of 102 gives him a chance of getting involved.

The model I run suggests ParkGarve can win this race. ParkGarve lines up here with a relatively high RPR, but goes out carrying a relatively low weight when comparing to the other 15 runners in this race. ParkGarve is the only horse here who has placed or run any kind of form recently, coming third 10 days ago. The model has indicated a 'very low' stake reading, which translates to a 0.5pt bet on a scale of 0-4. This is largely as a result of the small gap in predicted positioning to second place.