5:35 Downpatrick Tips

Not a strong event, and despite the lack of a recent run, Gavin Cromwell's new recruit, Arcland, should be good enough to make a winning start for his new trainer with conditions to suit and off a distinctly plausible mark.

Roaring Potter has been off for 1076 days with a back problem, wind op and contractual issues. Everything is tickety-boo now, and he is as fit as they can get him without racing. Trainer Keith Watson has found a good race for his comeback run. The track, trip, ground, and handicap mark all tick the boxes. The two question marks are: has he retained the ability he had, as some horses he has raced against are rated 130+? The other one is his attitude. He can be a bit stubborn sometimes, so Keith left a shotgun at his stable door last night just as an incentive :)

Looks well treated to my eye. Was running her best race at Thurles the time before last, right there competing until making an error at the hurdle and unable to recover. Dropped a pound for that and then tried in a tongue tie, which did no good. So now, with that removed and a much more experienced jockey in the plate, Me Philip Enright, off bottom weight, she can go close at huge odds.

The model I run suggests the value bet here is Wrecking Ball Paul. This result has been driven by Wrecking Ball Paul having the highest RPR of this 10-runner race. He is not really penalized for it in the weights thanks to a kind official ranking. Looks to take advantage of this here and get over the line first in this 2m2f round trip. The model has indicated a 'low' reading here, which translates to a 0.75pt bet on a scale of 0-4.