USMNT World Cup Betting Odds, History and Trends

Updated: 2972 Football

Explore United States Men’s National team's chances at World Cup 2022 and discover the best bets

USMNT World Cup Betting Odds, History and Trends

Erik Drost, CC BY 2.0 <>, via Wikimedia Commons

Michael Calabrese US Content Manager

Experienced sports journalist, College sports expert and broadcaster, hailing from Pennsylvania

The United States Men’s National team has qualified for the 2022 World Cup and have been placed in Group B along with Iran, England and Wales. Sportsbooks have listed the USMNT as even money to advance to the knockout stage, but they’ve also hung numbers on how deep the Americans will advance in the World Cup. Bettors can place wagers on the USMNT advancing out of the Group Stage, to the quarterfinals, semifinals, World Cup Final and even the USA being crowned as World Cup champions. 

These odds can change at a moment's notice, so please check with your sportsbook as to the current odds on offer for either side.

USMNT Prop Betting Odds

Party Moneyline Probability
Advance to Knockout Stage +100 50%
Win Group B +600 14.3%
Reach Q-Finals +450 18.2%
Reach Semi-Finals +1400 6.7%
Reach WC Final +4000 2.4%
Win the World Cup  +10000 0.9%

What is Betting on the World Cup?

Betting on the World Cup comes in many varieties. You can wager on the outcomes of individual games, and the statistical performances on individual players, or you can speculate how teams and or players will perform over a number of matches. These long-term future markets are updated after each game is played throughout the World Cup. 

4 Popular World Cup Betting Markets

There is a seemingly endless menu of betting options related to the World Cup. In addition to betting on the outright winner of the entire World Cup tournament, you can also bet on the individual matches, player prop bets on an individual match basis, and you can even wager on which player will take home the Golden Boot (most goals in World Cup play). 

BIggest year for Online Soccer Betting Ever in the US

World Cup betting has become more and more popular in the US, and as a result niche and prop bets markets continue to grow.

1. First Goal

Photograph: Gary Rohman/USA Today Sports

The first touchdown, basketball, and goal markets are incredibly popular when betting on the NFL, NBA and NHL respectively. It provides bettors with instant gratification and is a simple market to understand. Each player on each team in a match is list with odds that they will score the first goal of the match. Star players generally go off at low odds in the 2:1 to 6:1 range, whereas midfielders often go off at 15:1 or longer odds. 

2. Double Result

Many of the Group Stage matches pit prohibitive favorites against plucky underdogs. For this reason, bettors like to find ways to tilt the odds in their favor. One way to do this is by playing a “Double Result,” in which a bettor predicts which team is leading at halftime (could be a tie) and then which team ends up winning the match. Correctly predicting both outcomes provides more favorable odds to the bettor, even when they’re banking on a favorite to win both halves. 

3. Anytime Goal Scorers

These work just like the first goal scorer, but you don’t need your player to score the first goal of the game. It is also a prop market tailor-made for parlays. If you feel strongly that three players will score in a given match (they can be from opposing teams), you could parlay their “anytime goal” odds together to create a parlay that pays out north of 100 or even 200:1. 

For example, when the US opens against Wales in their first World Cup Match, an “anytime goal” parlay of Christian Pulisic (USA), Jesús Ferreira (USA) and Brennan Johnson (Wales) 

AGS = Anytime Goal Scorer

Player AGS Moneyline Probability
Christian Pulisic (USA) +375 21.1%
Jesus Ferreira(USA) +500 16.7%
Brennan Johnson (WALES) +450 18.2%
All 3 Parlay +15575 0.64%

In this example, the three plays together as a parlay would pay out just north of 155:1. 

4. Betting On Draws

American bettors have been conditioned to hate draws, but the Group Stage produces a lot of them. Fourteen of the 32 teams played to at least one draw in the Group Stage of the 2018 World Cup in Russia. 

Example Market: - Qatar vs. Ecuador 

Team Moneyline Probability
Qatar +250 28.6%
Ecuador +110 47.6%
Draw _230 30.3%

How to bet on the World Cup

The process of betting on the World Cup is as straightforward as betting on any other sporting event. 

Betting apps and websites provide a soccer section in the menu. Once you’ve arrived you can select the World Cup from a host of other soccer leagues and tournaments taking place worldwide. Once you’ve selected the World Cup you’ll be able to place wagers on individual matches, player props and futures. 

If you do not have an active online betting account, you’ll need to set one up. You can head over to our sportsbooks where you will see a list of bookmakers available in the US, arranged by state.

We have in-depth sportsbook reviews so you can see what other users think of them before deciding, or you can access a list of Sportsbook promos currently available from all US betting sites. 

  • Once you’ve signed up, simply click on the match, player prop or team future you wish to bet on. 

  • This will open up the bet slip, at which point you will see confirmation of the betting odds being offered.

  • Now you choose your stake - most betting sites will show you how much you can expect to have returned if your prediction is correct.

  • If you are satisfied, hit PLACE BET, to confirm your selection, stake, and bet.

  • You will be given a receipt for your bet and it will appear in your open bets in your account details.

  • Then it's just a matter of waiting for the match results.

World Cup Contenders in 2022

Thirty-two teams have qualified for the World Cup in Qatar, but only a handful are being taken seriously by oddsmakers as true threats to win the tournament. 

Nine countries are currently listed with odds at 14:1 or shorter to win the World Cup. This includes the defending World Cup Champion France (6:1), the current number one team in the FIFA World Rankings (Brazil, 4:1) and two other semifinalists from the 2018 World Cup (Belgium 14:1, England 7:1). 

As for the other 23 teams, Croatia (50:1) is coming off a miracle run to the World Cup final in 2018, Senegal (80:1) enters as the top African team, and the United States (100:1) has its highest FIFA World Ranking since 2013 when they advanced the Round of 16. 

World Cup Champion Betting Odds

Things to Consider When Betting on the World Cup

It’s one thing to have a good feel for the teams your wagering on, but the World Cup requires a detailed understanding of your opponents as well. The Group Stage in particular pits teams that often have little familiarity and often times a clash of strategies unfolds on the pitch. It’s critical to know which teams prefer to play at a snail’s pace and which teams will look to be ultra-aggressive in the attacking third. 

The Group Stage also creates moments in which ties are viewed as victories and where desperation can lead to higher-scoring matches. Understanding what the team’s goals are ahead of the match (a tie vs. an outright win) and how goal differential comes into play is vital as a bettor. 

As one of the most covered sporting events in the world, it pays to be well-read ahead of any wagering. This way you can stay ahead of storylines, injuries and the history between teams that you’ll be wagering on. 

History of World Cup Winners

Year Winner Runner-Up
2018 France Croatia
2014 Germany Argentina
2010 Spain Netherlands
2006 Italy France
2002 Brazil Germany
1998 France Brazil
1994 Brazil Italy
1990 Germany Argentina
1986 Argentina Germany

Prior to Croatia’s magical run to the World Cup Final in 2018, this tournament has become an exclusive club reserved for soccer Goliaths only. From 1982 onward, five countries have dominated the World Cup final. Germany has made five appearances, and France, Italy, Argentina and Brazil have all made three trips apiece. Only Spain and the Netherlands in 2010 and Croatia in 2018 have broken up that familiar script. 

Can The USMNT Rekindle Their Magic From 2002

The United States Men’s National Team advanced to the quarterfinals of the 2002 World Cup in Southeast Asia (Korea & Japan jointly hosted), it’s deepest run since 1930. The Americans advanced out of the Group Stage, shocking Portugal who entered as the fifth ranked team in the World by FIFA. 

In the Knockout Stage, the USMNT shut out their bitter rival, Mexico, 2-0 behind a masterful performance in net by Brad Friedel. Rising star Landon Donovan would score along with a goal from Brian McBride. And that was the last time the US really threatened to make a run in the World Cup. They would lose valiantly 1-0 to Germany in the following round. Prior to their World Cup Final loss to Brazil, Germany had surrendered just one goal in the entire World Cup. 

So what will it take for lightning to strike in Qatar for the Americans? Well for starters, they need to play flawlessly against upstarts Wales and Iran, because England is no longer the same choke-artists of yesteryear. After numerous early exits, the English have exceeded recent expectations advancing to the 2018 World Cup semifinals and the 2020 Euro Final. 

Speaking of exceeding expectations, Wales may be in the middle of their soccer golden age. After a 64-year World Cup drought, the Dragons are back and playing with momentum.  Their veteran-heavy roster helped them advance to the round of 16 at Euro 202 and many of those key pieces return in Qatar. Nottingham Forest goalkeeper Wayne Hennessey, crafty Tottenham defender Ben Davies, Swansea City midfielder Joe Allen and Nice midfieler Aaron Ramsey join Gareth Bale, a high-end goal-scorer with loads of international experience. 

Iran has been a familiar face in World Cup play, appearing in five of the past seven, but they have just two wins to their credit. One of those wins was over the Americans in 1998. Iran has been on a heater heading into WC play, having secured their spot by going 8-1-1 in the final round of Asia’s World Cup qualifying, besting South Korea for first place in Group A. If Iran can coax a star turn from 27-year-old Sardar Azmoun they could break some hearts in this tournament. Azmoun is nursing a calf injury, but if he’s healthy he could be the spark that pushes Iran into the Knockout Round. 

Assuming the English handle their business, can the Americans secure the second slot in Group B and advance to the Knockout Round? Oddsmakers give them a 50/50 shot of doing so, based upon their lousy play in the past few months. September tuneups did not go as planned with the USMNT failing to score in a loss to Japan and playing to a draw with Saudi Arabia. But this team is teeming with young talent that could gel on the world’s biggest stage. The talent is evident with players currently rostered in the UEFA Champions League and the Premier League. But ultimately the play of Jesus Ferreira and Christian Pulisic will determine how long the Americans keep their World Cup dreams alive. Pulisic will be making his World Cup debut, but the 24-year-old has 73 millions to be confident. He signed the most lucrative contract ($73mm) for an American in 2019 when he joined Chelsea. Jesus Ferreira is the likely choice at striker but he’ll need to find success early to hold off Josh Sargent. In short, the talent is there but the lack of World Cup experience and reliance on young stars could be a double-edged sword for the Americans in Qatar.

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