Do most NFL games go over or under?
First of all, Do most NFL games go over or under? Based on the last eight seasons of the NFL, Under has been more successful than over with 50.78% going under whilst only 47.97% went over with the remainder being pushes.
We are going to look at the under and over statistics from a number of angles in this blog, this involves the Total Points market where the NFL sportsbooks will set a line for each match and you wager on whether the points will go under or over that set number.
Don't forget to use the NFL Picks page to see what the NFL handicappers are wagering on, you can use those in conjunction with the information in this blog.View the NFL Picks
Please remember that whilst it is all well and good looking at the statistics other factors including the weather can play a big part in the result, the best NFL handicappers will always check the weather before placing a wager.
The set number of points will differ from game to game, the sportsbooks will take into consideration who is playing who, injuries, and even as mentioned the weather.
Over the last eight seasons, which we will be using in this blog, the line has been set from as low as 35 when the Steelers went to Baltimore back in 2019 to as high as 62.5 when the Chiefs went to the Rams in a game that ended 54-51!
Statistics by Season
You can see that over the last eight seasons that five of those favored the under with the 2021-22 season being the highest season for under since the 2017-18 season after the previous two seasons had seen the over being favored.
There is generally not a great deal between the percentages which would indicate the sportsbooks are setting the lines well because a 50/50 split would say they are doing their job well.
Points Scored - Totals & Averages
When you consider the number of variables, from players missing from being on the injury list to different matchups and different game conditions just how consistent the point totals have been over the season.
Five of the last eight seasons have seen the average number of points scored in a game from 45.18 to 45.96 with the 2017-18 season producing 43.44 and the 2018-19 producing 46.69.
The 2020-21 season did fall out of line with the others, the numbers were up with on average 49.59 points per game, however, it was not your ordinary season with pre-season canceled, the international games canceled, players allowed to opt out of playing without punishment which sixty-six players took up and either no fans in the stadium or a largely reduced number of fans.
The reduction of fans seemed to really help the visiting teams, their average number of points was up to 24.76 for the season, and the highest in the previous six seasons was 22.88 so it was well above that average.
NFL - Most Successful Under Teams
The Steelers and the Broncos are the two teams who have the best records when it comes to low-scoring games and those which finish with under the set points total.
The Steelers have seen 58.14% of their games go under with a profit of $170.54 to $10 wagers whilst the Broncos also have a decent profit of $135.42 to $10 wagers with 56.59% of their games going under.
When focusing on games played at home then games involving the Bears have by far been the best for under with a 64.06% success rate and a profit of $151.16 to $10 wagers.
On the road, there are five teams worth noting, the Steelers (69% $215.46), the Bengals (64% $158.66), the Pats (61% $107.90), the Cowboys (60% $103.87), and the Lions (60% $103.95) all have good numbers.
- Pittsburgh Steelers - 58.14% (+$170.54)
- Denver Broncos - 56.59% (+$135.42)
- Chicago Bears - 55.81% (+$99.09)
- Atlanta Falcons - 55.04% (+$98.15)
- New England Patriots - 55.04% (+$83.64)
The worst performing team for under is the Tennessee Titans who have seen just 42.64% of their games go under the set total with the Panthers (45%), the Saints (45%), and the Raiders (45%) the next worse.
NFL - Most Successful Over Teams
The Tennessee Titans are the only team over the last eight seasons to have a strike rate of over 55% for their games finishing with over the set number of points and they show a healthy profit too of $113.53 to $10 wagers.
Only ten of the thirty-two teams have seen more games finish with overs than under, of those the Las Vegas Raiders are worth noting when at home with 60% of their games finishing over and show a profit of $119.96 to $10 wagers.
On the road, games involving the Indianapolis Colts having seen 60.94% finish over the set line and $10 wagers would have resulted in a profit of $110.13.
- Tennessee Titans - 55.81% (+$113.53)
- New Orleans Saints - 54.26% (+$69.65)
- Carolina Panthers - 53.49% (+$59.15)
- Las Vegas Raiders - 52.71% (+$46.70)
At the other end of the scale, the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road are not ones to play over on with their games resulting in only 29.69% going over, both the Pats (39%) and Bengals (34%) also have low success rates on the road whilst the Bears (36%) don't have many go over at home.
NFL - Team Averages
Below is a table that details every team over the last eight seasons, the average number of points they have scored, the average number of points they have given up, and the average number of points in each game they have featured in.
The table is ordered by the highest average number of points in a game down to the least average number of points in a game and also contains the percentage of games that went under and that went over.
|Team||MP||GF (Ave)||GA (Ave)||MG (Ave)||Under||Over|
|New Orleans Saints||129||27.40||23.61||51.01||45%||54%|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||129||24.53||24.80||49.33||47%||53%|
|Green Bay Packers||129||25.71||22.45||48.16||47%||52%|
|Kansas City Chiefs||129||27.37||20.72||48.09||49%||48%|
|Las Vegas Raiders||129||21.24||26.45||47.69||45%||53%|
|Los Angeles Chargers||129||23.69||23.26||46.95||53%||47%|
|San Francisco 49ers||129||21.77||23.95||45.72||49%||49%|
|Los Angeles Rams||129||23.71||21.88||45.60||54%||44%|
|New England Patriots||129||26.95||18.45||45.40||55%||44%|
|New York Giants||129||20.19||24.42||44.60||53%||45%|
|New York Jets||129||18.64||25.33||43.97||50%||50%|
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*Statistics only include regular season games between the 2014-15 and the 2021-22 seasons, the home team is the official team listed as hosting, and closing odds and lines are used in the figures.