Arkansas Derby Betting Guide: Strategies, Statistics & Picks

Updated: 58 Horse Racing

Contested over a distance of 1m1f is the Arkansas Derby which is scheduled to take place at Oaklawn Park. Below we have detailed past winners along with both trainer and jockey records in the race and see which trends have been set based on past winners of the Arkansas Derby.

Arkansas Derby Betting Guide: Strategies, Statistics & Picks

Image: shutterstock

Andy Powell Content Editor

Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.

2025 Arkansas Derby Preview

Run on the same day as the Florida Derby and five weeks before the Kentucky Derby is the Arkansas Derby, hosted at Oaklawn Park in April of each year, this Grade 1 race is restricted to three-year-old horses and is contested over a distance of one mile and one-eighth of a mile on the dirt.

Established in 1936, a total of three runners won this race before going on to win the Kentucky Derby, those were Sunny Halo (1976), Smarty Jones (2004), and the legendary American Pharoah (2015).

Arkansas Derby Picks

If you are interested in other predictions at Oaklawn Park then head over to the Oaklawn Park Betting Picks page to see which runners are being supported by the OLBG handicappers and also compare those predictions to the runners who follow the trends when added below. Ahead of the 2025 Arkansas Derby why not head over to the racing predictions for picks on other races today?

Arkansas Derby Content

Quickest Run Arkansas Derby Renewals

The runner that holds the record over the past 10 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2021 renewal when Super Stock from Steven Asmussen under the guidance of Ricardo Santana Jr, won in a time of 1:50.92, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Nadal, trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Joel Rosario set the quickest time of 1:48.34 in the 2020 renewal. Below are the top three quickest-run Arkansas Derby over the last 10 renewals.

  1. Nadal (1:48.34) in 2020
  2. Charlatan (1:48.49) in 2020
  3. Classic Empire (1:48.93) in 2017

Arkansas Derby Past Winners

Here are the Arkansas Derby past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the winning time, and the horse that won along with the cloth number, age, sex, the weight of the horse & which starting gate the horse came from. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Arkansas Derby as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the moneyline odds the horse was sent off.

Race Notes: The 2020 renewal consisted of two races, Division One and Division Two.

YearHorse (Info)Info
2024
1:49.54
(7) Muth (USA)
3/C 124lbs 23/10 (7 of 10)
Juan J Hernandez
Bob Baffert (USA)
2023
1:49.68
(6) Angel Of Empire (USA)
3/C 122lbs 47/10 (6 of 10)
Flavien Prat
Brad H Cox (USA)
2022
1:50.42
(8) Cyberknife (USA)
3/C 119lbs 58/10 (8 of 9)
Florent Geroux
Brad H Cox (USA)
2021
1:50.92
(1) Super Stock (USA)
3/C 122lbs 122/10 (1 of 6)
Ricardo Santana Jr
Steven Asmussen (USA)
2020
1:48.34
(5) Nadal (USA)
3/C 122lbs 9/10F (4 of 9)
Joel Rosario
Bob Baffert (USA)
2020
1:48.49
(1) Charlatan (USA)
3/C 118lbs 2/5F (1 of 9)
Martin Garcia
Bob Baffert (USA)
2019
1:49.91
(3) Omaha Beach (USA)
3/C 122lbs 17/10F (3 of 11)
Mike E Smith
Richard E Mandella (USA)
2018
1:49.86
(6) Magnum Moon (USA)
3/C 122lbs 4/5F (6 of 9)
Luis Saez
Todd Pletcher (USA)
2017
1:48.93
(2) Classic Empire (USA)
3/C 122lbs 19/10F (2 of 12)
Julien R Leparoux
Mark Casse (CAN)
2016
1:50.14
(3) Creator (USA)
3/C 118lbs 116/10 (3 of 12)
Ricardo Santana Jr
Steven Asmussen (USA)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Arkansas Derby have been based:

  • USA: 9 winners with an additional 19 placings from 96 runners
  • CAN: 1 winner with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner

Arkansas Derby Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Arkansas Derby over the last 10 renewals is Bob Baffert who has won the race 3 times. Those 3 winners came from Nadal (2020), Charlatan (2020) & Muth (2024). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Arkansas Derby are Steven Asmussen (2 wins) & Brad H Cox (2 wins).

Here are some of the most active Arkansas Derby trainer statistics over the last 10 renewals.

TrainerStarts1st2nd3rdLSP
Bob Baffert8312-1.40
Steven Asmussen22211+3.80
Brad H Cox6210+6.50
Todd Pletcher5101-3.20
Mark Casse1100+1.90
Richard E Mandella1100+1.70
Ronald Moquett4011-4.00
D Wayne Lukas4011-4.00
Kenneth McPeek3001-3.00
Dallas Stewart3000-3.00

Arkansas Derby Jockey Statistics

The leading jockey in the Arkansas Derby over the last 10 renewals is Ricardo Santana Jr who has won the race 2 times. Those 2 winners came from Creator (2016) & Super Stock (2021).

Here are some of the most active Arkansas Derby jockey statistics over the last 10 renewals.

JockeyStarts1st2nd3rdLSP
Ricardo Santana Jr9210+16.80
Flavien Prat6101-0.30
Florent Geroux4120+2.80
Martin Garcia4101-2.60
Joel Rosario3102-1.10
Juan J Hernandez2100+1.30
Julien R Leparoux2100+0.90
Mike E Smith2100+0.70
Luis Saez1100+0.80
John R Velazquez4002-4.00

Arkansas Derby Trend Analysis

How competitive is the Arkansas Derby market?

When looking at the over-rounds for the last 10 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2024 when the race had an over-round of 122%. The race in 2016 was a race that was most in the bookie's favor with an over-round of 123%, whilst on average over the last 10 renewals of the Arkansas Derby, the over-round has been 123%, which means the bookie expects to pay out $100 for every $123 which is bet.

Post Positions of the Arkansas Derby Winners, Places & Shows

Here are the most recent winning draws along with those who placed and showed:

YearWinPlaceShow
2024789
2023698
2022836
2021125
2020541

Best Course for an Arkansas Derby Prep Run?

The course which has produced the most winners of the Arkansas Derby is Oaklawn Park, there has been a total number of 5 winners of this race who ran at Oaklawn Park last time out.

Sex of Horse winners of the Arkansas Derby

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 10 winners from a total of 96 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 1 runner.

Biggest Priced Winners of the Arkansas Derby & Performance of Favorites

Looking at the winning odds over the last 10 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Super Stock in 2021, winning for Steven Asmussen at odds of 122/10 under the guidance of Ricardo Santana Jr. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 10 renewals there has been a total of 5 winning favorites in the race. Before placing your wager on the 2025 Arkansas Derby head over to see which other runners today are being wagered on by the best racing handicappers today. All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs are based on the information that is available on the racing post. If you are interested in other races at the Oaklawn Park racecourse, then why not read our blog for the Apple Blossom Handicap?

Arkansas Derby FAQs

Where is the Arkansas Derby run?

The Arkansas Derby is run at the Oaklawn Park racetrack each year, you can get Oaklawn Park racing predictions all season long as well as for the Arkansas Derby.

When is the Arkansas Derby?

The Arkansas Derby takes place around April of each year at Oaklawn Park.

Who won the Arkansas Derby?

The 2024 renewal of the Arkansas Derby was won by the Bob Baffert trained Muth who was ridden by Juan J Hernandez in a time of 1:49.54, owned by Zedan Racing Stables Inc it was sent off at an SP of 23/10. You can view all the recent winners in the Arkansas Derby Past Winners section of the blog.

Who will win the Arkansas Derby?

On the day of the race, use the trends in this blog and then compare them to the OLBG racing handicappers' predictions for the Arkansas Derby, you can do this on the Oaklawn Park Picks page which not only will have picks for this race but also picks for Oaklawn Park throughout the season. You may also be interested in the Horse Racing Picks page where you can get daily horse racing predictions from all of the US courses.

Who is the top trainer in the Arkansas Derby?

With a total of three winners over the last ten renewals, it is Bob Baffert who holds the claim as the leading trainer in the Arkansas Derby. To see which other trainers have a good record in the race, head over to the Arkansas Derby Trainer Statistics section of the blog.

Who is the top jockey in the Arkansas Derby?

With a total of two winners over the last ten renewals, it is Ricardo Santana Jr who holds the claim as the leading jockey in the Arkansas Derby. To see which other jockeys have a good record in the race, head over to the Arkansas Derby Jockey Statistics section of the blog.

Do we have trends for the 2025 renewal of the Arkansas Derby?

The simple answer is Yes! We have a total of fifteen trends for the Arkansas Derby which can be found under the Arkansas Derby Trends section.

Article Contributor Information

We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Arkansas Derby Betting Guide: Strategies, Statistics & Picks is Andy. He works on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for International Horse Racing.

Andy Powell

Andy Powell

Content editor

Andy, a seasoned horse racing analyst with over 15 years of experience, delves into the intricacies of international horse racing, meticulously analyzing complex statistical data to uncover hidden trends. He spearheads the creation and management of OLBG's international horse racing trend blogs, providing valuable insights for bettors worldwide.

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