Many people bet based on headlines or hunches. I dig into research and market moves behind political odds & manager markets, so you can back decisions, not guesses.
- Bookies go 20/1 that TikTok is banned in the US by June this year
- Montana had been set to ban the app across the state this month
- Other specials look at chances of Elon Musk buying the app at some point in 2024
Bookies go 20/1 that TikTok is banned in the US by June this year
TikTok has constantly been in the news in the US with the app looking like it was nailed on to be banned by the US government at some point in 2023.
That never happened though despite CEO Shou Zi Chew called into Congress for questioning last year and the Senate said in December that bills to ban have been stalled.
It's though that the Biden administration have realised that banning the app across the US would lead to a heavy loss of votes amongst the younger age range considering it's an election year too.
Bookmakers have now given odds of 20/1 that the app is banned across the US by June this year with just a 4% chance it happens according to those odds.
| Will TikTok be banned in the US by June 2024? | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1/25 | 96.2% |
| No | 20/1 | 4.8% |
What the expert says..
Montana had been set to ban the app across the state this month
Montana became the first US state to ban TikTok back in May last year after legislation was signed off prohibiting app stores from offering the app there by 2024.
That has been blocked though with US district judge Donald Molloy saying that the legislation “oversteps state power and infringes on the constitutional rights of users” according to reports in The Guardian.
This has seen users of the app feel more at ease that it won't be getting banned any time soon with a clear message now sent to the Government that laws to ban will be hard to pass.
Other specials look at chances of Elon Musk buying the app at some point in 2024
Elon Musk features in another specials market around TikTok with odds now offered that the businessman buys the app at some point in 2024.
Musk famously bought Twitter back in 2022 for a reported $44b and it could be that TikTok is next up for his portfolio of social media companies.
The betting odds though make it just 7/1 that any sort of acquisition of the company comes in by Musk with a 12% probability given judging by those odds.
| Will Elon Musk buy TikTok? | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| No | 1/20 | 95.2% |
Current Affairs Author Information
Nigel Skinner - Current Affairs Betting Expert - OLBG.com
