Canadian Election Betting Odds and History

Updated: 1630 Politics & Current Affairs

The 2021 Canadian Federal Election is expected to be a very tight race with the Liberals and Conservatives neck and neck in polling. The incumbent Liberal government has a real fight on its hands to remain in power, and this snap election could backfire on PM Justin Trudeau.

Canadian Election Betting Odds and History
Steve Madgwick Editor-In-Chief

Editor-In-Chief with 20 years experience covering the betting angles to breaking news stories. Daily slots player, Portsmouth fan and League Snooker Player

Canadian Federal Election Betting 2021

  • Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party are odds on favourites with all online bookmakers

  • Election odds indicate a 75% chance for Liberals and a 25% chance for Conservatives. 

  • Snap election called by Trudeau looks like an astute gamble.


The Canadian Election betting odds show a tightish between the Liberal Party led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Conservatives who have a newish leader in Erin O'Toole.

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The snap election was a calculated gamble by the Liberals whose polling has been shaky in recent weeks, the PM said he wanted to give Canadians the chance to have their say on where the country goes from here, especially when Canada comes out of the Covid19 pandemic. 

He and the Liberals wanted to secure a new mandate for the Covid 19 recovery plan, and they obviously feel this is the ideal time for the country to decide. 

Calling an election two years ahead of schedule is a big risk for any government, we saw this with Theresa May and The Conservatives in the UK.

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That poor snap election outcome and the hung parliament that resulted ultimately allowed Boris Johnson to become the new PM.  

The online bookmakers who are offering Canadian Election betting odds have the Liberal Party odds on, but recent polls show the Conservatives making gains, the odds could easily flip flop in the coming days. 

Canada will go to the polls on the 20th of September 2021. 

Bookmaker betting odds currently give the Liberals a 57% chance of victory with the Conservatives at 44%.

Nigel Skinner - Political Betting Expert

2021 Canada Election Parties 2021 Best Betting Odds
Liberal Party 1/3
Conservative Party 9/4
New Democratic Party  50/1
Green Party  200/1
Bloc Quebecois 200/1

Betting Odds As Of 31st August 2021.

With a race this close one slip up or gaffe by one of the leaders could be the difference as to who wins the Canadian Election.

Nigel Skinner - Political Betting Expert

Canadian Election 2019

In the 2019 Canadian Election, the Liberals lost 20 seats and were forced to form a minority government. 

Justin Trudeau has been in power for 6 years, since November 2015, his father was PM for over 15 years.

Nigel Skinner - Political Betting Expert

A few heavily reported scandals in the lead-up to the election may have played a part in their poor 2019 showing.

170 seats are needed for an overall majority and you can see via the table below that the Liberals fell short by 13. 

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The Conservatives outperformed expectations winning an extra 26 seats, and narrowly won the popular vote

2019 Canadian Election Seats Won Percentage Vote
Liberal Party 157 33.12%
Conservative Party 121 34.34%
Bloc Quebecois 32 7.63%
New Democratic Party 24 15.98%
Green Party 3 6.55%



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