Profitable Horse Racing Betting System - Using The VALUE CALCULATOR To Assess Handicap Flat Races On Turf In The UK - September To October 2017, Plus End Of Season Review

The purpose of this article is to provide readers with an update in respect of my ongoing investigations to develop a methodology to identify value Horse Racing wagers, which will hopefully enable users to achieve long term, sustainable profits when backing these value selections.

For readers who have yet to encounter the VALUE CALCULATOR, or wish to refresh their understanding of the mechanics and early results for this methodology, I would recommend that they take a few minutes to review my initial article which can be accessed via the following link:

Introducing the VALUE CALCULATOR Since writing the original article in early January, I have been using the VALUE CALCULATOR to assess subsequent races on a daily basis, the results of which have been very pleasing, albeit I have been working alone and therefore due to time constraints, it has been necessary to focus on specific types of races.

This article will focus on handicap flat races in the UK of class 3 level and above on turf.

This is the third article in respect of this class of race and the results of my analysis for earlier during the 2017 turf season can be viewed via the following link:

Turf Handicap Races May to June 2017Handicap Races:July to August 2017

Criteria for Choosing Races to be Analysed and Selecting Value Wagers

I have focussed this analysis on higher class turf flat races that have no age restriction (excluding 2yo and 3yo only events) held in the UK (excluding Ireland) between 1 September and 31 October 2017.

The reasons for selecting the above criteria were twofold, in that I wanted to ensure that most of the runners to be analysed would have sufficient experience to facilitate a fairly accurate profile based on the Racing Post Postdata criteria, whilst also ensuring that the better quality horses were more likely to perform consistently and therefore run to form.

With regard to the selection process for identifying potentially value wagers, more detailed analysis of the data that I collated during 2016, which was used to write the original article indicated that it was most profitable to concentrate on the two VALUE CALCULATOR qualifiers which were available to back at the shortest odds in each race.

Results Achieved

Armed with the above criteria, I undertook the VALUE CALCULATOR analysis of a further 55 handicap races on the evening prior to each race and having identified the top 2 qualifiers in the betting market at around 9.00 pm each evening, I placed a small stake win bet on each at the best odds available with the appropriate bookmaker (as indicated on Oddschecker), ensuring that all of the bets were struck with the best odds guaranteed concession.

The results achieved during this period were as follows:

RACES: 55
SELECTIONS: 109
WINNERS : 16
STRIKE RATE: 15%
STAKES: 109.00
RETURN: 134.58
PROFIT: 25.58
ROI: 23.46%

It should be noted that there was only one VALUE CALCULATOR qualifier in some races, whilst there were a handful of events with joint second selections which has resulted in slightly more than 2 selections per race over the period.

The profit figure is based on the returns from the bookmakers after taking into account Rule 4 deductions in respect of non runners.

The overall results for the 2017 season (1 May to 31 October) are as follows:

RACES: 236
SELECTIONS: 471
WINNERS: 67
STRIKE RATE: 14%
STAKES: 471.00
RETURN: 563.13
PROFIT: 92.13
ROI: 19.56%

I also undertook further analysis in respect of the results for the top 2 VALUE CALCULATOR qualifiers based on the following additional criteria:

Number of Runners in Race: Maximum of 8: 46 winners from 235 selections: Strike Rate 20%: LSP 113.55 pts: ROI 48.32%

Race Distance: 6 to 14 furlongs: 61 winners from 411 selections: Strike Rate 15%: LSP 105.58: ROI 25.69%, of which:

Races between 11 and 14 furlongs provided the best results: 20 winners from 113 selections: Strike Rate 18%: LSP of 59.48: ROI 52.64%

Whilst it is also worth mentioning that the specialist distance of 7 furlongs, also provided a good profit, with 13 winners from 76 selections: Strike Rate 17%: LSP 27.50: ROI 36.32%

Conclusions

Although it may appear at first sight that a strike rate of just 14% based on total selections is rather on the low side, it is not massively inferior to the level achieved by the VALUE CALCULATOR for UK turf pattern races (16%) and it should be noted that the top 2 qualifiers were successful in just over 28% of all the handicap races that have been analysed, which is a fair return in such competitive races.

Likewise, the overall return on investment for UK turf handicaps of 19.56%, is well below that for pattern races (42.32%) during the 2017 season, but still represents a solid performance and a worthwhile profit at the end of the year.

However, there may be an opportunity to improve profitability by increasing stakes on selections in handicap races with 8, or fewer runners and possibly when considering races over specific such as 7 furlongs and between 11 and 14 furlongs, which is something that I will consider prior to the start of the next turf flat racing season.

Despite the success of the VALUE CALCULATOR, I have identified a number of anomalies that require further investigation in an attempt to further improve profitability, including:

The general underestimation of unexposed runners in handicap races, especially 3yos when taking on older more experienced rivals during the latter half of the turf flat season.

The general underestimation of foreign raiders in handicap races, especially when they have not previously raced on UK soil.

However, care will be required when considering possible solutions, as there is always a danger that by improving the scores for the above runners, the revised results will impinge on the overall level of profits which have been achieved to date.

Further Activities

I intend to continue to use the VALUE CALCULATOR to assess handicap races on turf in the UK during the 2018 season from 1 May next year.

I will also consider possible enhancements to rectify the anomalies mentioned at the end of the Conclusions.

However, whilst I would wish to extend the scope of the VALUE CALCULATOR analysis in 2018 to cover better class handicap races in the UK that are restricted to runners aged 3 years old, plus undertake some analysis of similar races in Ireland, I doubt whether I will find the time next summer, so perhaps these races will have to wait for another year.

As mentioned in my initial article, there are so many potential uses of the VALUE CALCULATOR, many of which I shall probably never find the time to investigate, so if anyone feels that they have the time and enthusiasm to get involved in this project, then it would be great to hear from you, via a private message.

I hope that readers have found this analysis of interest and as usual, I would welcome any comments and feedback, especially if readers have any similar ideas/methodologies for assessing value that they are happy to share.

Also, if you have enjoyed this blog, please feel free to share the link on social media, with your friends and contacts who are interested in horse racing.

Further articles relating to the VALUE CALCULATOR are easily accessible via the following link:VALUE CALCULATOR INDEX Finally, even if readers do not wish to undertake the VALUE CALCULATOR analysis on a regular basis, it may be worth the effort when considering maximum stakes bets, or for a bit of fun occasionally applying the process to the selections of OLBG members.

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