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As the 2024/25 Premier League season unfolds, the gap between critics’ preseason predictions and the reality of the standings is becoming increasingly clear. Some teams have defied expectations, while others have severely underperformed. In this article, we’ll dive into the biggest surprises, letdowns, and where critics got it right - or terribly wrong and punters at betting sites have either gained or suffered.
What’s funny about predictions is that they almost always miss the curveballs. For example, Man City are now 7/2 third favourites to win the Premier League despite bookmaker predictions putting them in 1st place before the season started. Blind spots happen because analysts tend to focus on recent form or big narratives and forget that football’s never that straightforward. You’ve got outliers every season—like an unexpected injury crisis or a team that just gels overnight. Those things don’t show up in algorithms or on paper, but they completely change the game. It’s why predictions should come with a big asterisk: anything can happen.
Key Insights: Surprises and Disappointments
Biggest Underperformers
Crystal Palace (-7): A major shock as the Eagles are underperforming by the biggest margin compared to critics' predictions. Initially pegged for a mid-table finish, they’ve had a tough start to the season.
Manchester United (-6): One of the biggest disappointments. Preseason pundits had high hopes for the Red Devils, but they’re struggling to meet expectations so far.
Newcastle (-5), West Ham (-5), Everton (-5): All three were expected to be in more competitive positions but have fallen short of the mark, with disappointing performances.
| Team | Preseason prediction | Curren positions | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Crystal Palace | 12 | 19 | -7 |
Manchester United | 6 | 12 | -6 |
Newcastle | 5 | 10 | -5 |
West Ham | 9 | 14 | -5 |
Everton | 10 | 15 | -5 |
Wolves | 14 | 17 | -3 |
Arsenal | 2 | 4 | -2 |
Southampton | 18 | 20 | -2 |
Manchester City | 1 | 2 | -1 |
Aston Villa | 8 | 8 | 0 |
Notable Overperformers
Liverpool (+2): Many critics wrote off Liverpool’s chances of winning the title, but the Reds are currently outperforming expectations with strong form.
Ipswich (+2): A surprise package in the Premier League, Ipswich has defied 66.7% of critics who predicted them for relegation. Their current play has many fans feeling optimistic of overcoming their predicted rock-bottom finish.
Bournemouth (+3), Leicester (+3), Fulham (+4): These teams have all outperformed their predicted rankings, showcasing resilience and strong performances early in the season.
| Team | Preseason prediction | Current Position | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Nottingham Forest | 17 | 7 | 10 |
Brighton | 11 | 5 | 6 |
Fulham | 13 | 9 | 4 |
Brentford | 15 | 11 | 4 |
Bournemouth | 16 | 13 | 3 |
Leicester | 19 | 16 | 3 |
Liverpool | 3 | 1 | 2 |
Ipswich | 20 | 18 | 2 |
Chelsea | 4 | 3 | 1 |
Tottenham | 7 | 6 | 1 |
The Surprising Fall of Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace’s underperformance has been the most dramatic of the season so far. After being predicted to finish mid-table, they’ve dropped far below expectations. What’s behind this downfall? A closer look at their squad, tactics, and early results might shed light on the challenges they face.
After the season they had last year under Oliver Glasner we all expected them to kick on in a big way, but it’s been a frustrating start for Palace. They’ve struggled with consistency, especially in the final third, where they’ve lacked that cutting edge. Especially with the departure of Michael Olise in the summer. They’ll have to get sharper if they want to climb away from the relegation zone before the pressure takes hold.
Nottingham Forest: The Biggest Shock
Forest was written off by nearly two-thirds of critics, with many predicting them to be relegated. Instead, they’ve not only avoided the drop but are sitting comfortably in the European places—far exceeding preseason expectations. How did Nuno's squad pull this off?
Nottingham Forest have been a surprise package this season - they were backed from 66/1 to 10/1 to finish in the Top 6 after being the biggest shock overperformers so far this season with more than 10 places gained in the table against the pre-season prediction. They’ve built on last year’s survival scrap and points deductions by adding real depth to the squad. Plus, Nuno Espírito Santo has got the team fighting as a unit—there’s a clear sense of identity now. Their home form has been a fortress, and let’s not forget the big performances from Kiwi Chris Wood who's been pulling up trees. It feels like they’re finding the right balance between playing pragmatic and taking their chances on the break.
The Critics’ Worst Misses and Best Hits
While some teams have defied the odds, others have disappointed. The fact that just one critic predicted Liverpool to win the division shows how unpredictable the Premier League is this season. Similarly, Ipswich’s rise from relegation contenders to a mid-table position illustrates the volatile nature of the league.
Only one season preview predicted Liverpool’s rise to the top and they used EAFC’s Ultimate Team to determine their success - shows what we know!
It’s no surprise Liverpool weren’t the hot pick this year. Sure, they’ve been phenomenal in the past, but their last season was all over the place. They had a shaky midfield, defensive lapses, and just didn’t look like the unstoppable force we’re used to. While Klopp’s been working to refresh the squad, there’s a sense that they’re still in transition. Meanwhile, Manchester City and Arsenal have just been so consistent and dominant recently—it’s hard to bet against them. They’re now odds-on favourites at 4/7 for the title despite bookmakers putting them at third in the pre-season prediction table.
The Teams That Have Surprised the Most
Brighton (+6): Brighton continues to surprise critics, outperforming expectations with a strong run in the league.
Brentford (+4): A club that has quietly built on last season’s solid performances, Brentford is exceeding critics’ predictions once again.
Brighton keep proving they’re not just a flash in the pan. Fabian Hürzeler has taken Roberto De Zerbi’s foundation to another level with his attacking philosophy—it's fearless and fun to watch. The recruitment at Brighton is a masterclass; they find talent before anyone else and integrate them seamlessly. They’re also without European football this season, which took a huge toll on an inexperienced squad this time last year. This season, Hürzeler’s rotation and big spending in the summer has shown to be a massive part of their success.
Will the promoted slides defy the odds?
Just roughly one in ten critics believed that Southampton (89%), Ipswich (92%) or Leicester (93%) stood a chance of avoiding relegation this season. Already the Foxes have let Steve Cooper go, despite hovering about the relegation places after a quarter of the season. Fortunately for these sides, Wolves, Crystal Palace and Everton are all making hard work of it this season too. Will these chronic underperforming sides leave the door open for their newly-promoted adversaries?
Promoted teams like Ipswich, Leicester, and Southampton always get a rough deal in predictions. There’s this idea that coming up from the Championship means you’re automatically going to struggle in the Premier League. Leicester might not even be in the drop zone right now, but people still question if they’ve got the grit to stay up over a full season. Southampton’s squad looks exciting but maybe too young to handle the big pressure games. And Ipswich? They’re playing well, but being unproven at this level makes people quick to write them off - they remain odds-on at 4/6 to be relegated despite being an overperformer on the pre-season predictions with a +2 placing so far . It’s just the usual uphill battle for the newcomers.
The 2024/25 Premier League season is far from predictable, with many teams defying preseason forecasts. With the season nearing the halfway point, can teams like Manchester United, Newcastle, and West Ham recover and hit their stride? Or will the surprise packages—like Ipswich and Fulham—continue to defy expectations and hold their ground? Only time will tell.
Methodology
The data for this analysis was gathered from various authoritative sources, including football analysts, sports media outlets, supercomputers, betting sites, and expert predictions. The list of sources used includes 128 critics, journalists, pundits, and columnists from the likes of; BBC, Times, etc.
From the various sources, we focused on expert predictions, odds, and supercomputer forecasts. Each source provided a table of predicted Premier League standings for the 2024/25 season, ranging from top positions (title contenders) to relegation threats. The gathered data was categorised into three primary segments: Due to the differing methodologies of each source (e.g., predictive models vs expert commentary), the data was normalised using a common 100-point percentage scale per position.
A composite prediction table was created by averaging the normalised rankings across sources, with weighted averages assigned based on the confidence levels and data-driven methodologies from each source.
