Premier League Average Positions - Who Are The Real Big 6

As the new Premier League season approaches, consideration is given to previous performances to predict outcomes. However, one-off season successes or failures are not reliable indicators. Analyzing 31 years of results might unveil a more accurate forecast, highlighting the intermittent dominance of giants like Manchester City.
Premier League Average Positions - Who Are The Real Big 6
Dan Tracey
Dan Tracey Data Scientist and Football Editor

Writer, analyst, podcaster, Spurs fan. Three out of four is not bad. If there is a data angle, I will find it.

With a new Premier League season now just weeks away, it is time to dive into the data once more. Although the finishing positions of the previous campaign will offer an insight to future performance, they may also be an isolated statistic at the same time.

Analyzing Historic Data: Predicting the Ebb and Flow of Coming Premier League Season

Just weeks before #PremierLeague 2023/24! πŸ™Œ One-off season successes/failures don't spell future performance. ⚽️ Using 31 years of data for better predictions! πŸ“Š Dominance shift seen – Man City hasn't always had it all! πŸ’ͺπŸ”΅

Because punching above your weight in one single campaign or having a season to forget are not necessarily a precursor to what will happen during 2023/24 and with 31 years of finishing positions to hand, we are now able to build a better outlook on where teams are expected to end up.

Something that comes in the shape of average Premier League table finishes and although Manchester City may be the dominant force in English football right now, they have not always had things their own way.

MANCHESTER IS RED

Seat at Old Trafford, Manchester United Fc ground

Especially when you consider that the Etihad outfit has spent time in the wilderness of the second and third tiers in the past three decades and while that was happening, their crosstown rivals were ruling the roost.

Not only that, but Manchester United is one of six teams that have never suffered relegation from the Premier League and when looking at the average finishing positions of each of these half dozen, here is how things shape up.

TeamAverage Position
Manchester United2.63
Arsenal3.94
Liverpool4.31
Chelsea4.88
Tottenham7.41
Everton10.75

As you can see it is the Old Trafford outfit that has the best average finishing position in Premier League history, and this can largely be explained by the 13 titles that were won under the leadership of Sir Alex Ferguson. 

With an average finish of 2.45, they are more than one and a half positions better than Arsenal and with the North Londoners being one of three clubs that sit between fourth and fifth in terms of average finishes, the moniker of best of the rest is certainly up for grabs.

Old Trafford's Dominance: Sir Alex Ferguson's Legacy and the Race for 'Best of the Rest

Old Trafford shines in #PremierLeague history with the best average finishing position, thanks to 13 titles under Sir Alex Ferguson's leadership! πŸ†πŸ”΄ With an average of 2.45, they vastly outperform Arsenal. 🎯 North Londoners are in a tight race for the 'best of the rest' tag. ⚽️πŸ’₯

Although Arsenal earned three Premier League crowns in seven seasons between 1998 and 2004, they have been in the title wilderness since and with Liverpool and Chelsea not all that far behind, the current trajectory suggests a change in ranking is not all that far away.

With Liverpool and Chelsea also averaging a finishing position of less than fifth, they have managed to put some distance between themselves and Tottenham and although the white half of North London has done well to bring their average down, it is still five whole places more than Manchester United.

Because even Tottenham have had regular dalliances in the Champions League in recent times, their first 10 years in the Premier League were a decade to forget and only since the arrival of ENIC, have bottom-half finishes been a thing of the past.

Top 5 Struggle: Comparing Liverpool, Chelsea, and Tottenham's Premier League Histories

Liverpool and Chelsea maintain a top 5 average finish, distancing from Tottenham. πŸ‘βš½οΈ Despite their recent Champions League dalliances, Spurs' early Premier League years weigh down their average. πŸ”„ It’s only post-ENIC era that has kept them in top half! πŸ‘

Then again, Everton will be happy that their bottom half finish was not one that saw them in 18th just a few months ago and because of that previous terrible campaign at Goodison Park, their average finish has now increased to 10.61.

This now means after such a nervy showing during the 2022/23 season, Everton are now on average a bottom-half team and the prospect of breaking the Premier League’s proverbial glass ceiling now seems miles away.

THE DEFENDING CHAMPIONS

Etihad Stadium Manchester

With us now getting an idea of what the average finishing positions look like for our group of ever-presents, here are the 10 lowest average finishes of all time.

TeamAverage PositionTotal PositionsSeasons
Manchester United2.638432
Arsenal3.9412632
Liverpool4.3113832
Chelsea4.8815632
Manchester City6.9618827
Tottenham7.4123732
Newcastle9.7628329
Blackburn10.0018018
Leeds10.0715115
Aston Villa10.2129629

Here the previous group of six are joined by the quintet of Manchester City, Newcastle, Blackburn, Leeds, and Aston Villa but there is one glaring omission and that comes in the shape of Everton who are now outside of the top 10.

Sean Dyche’s men may have stayed up on the final day of the season, but they have since been surpassed by an Aston Villa side who secured European football and have since improved their average finish to 10.43.

As for Manchester City, they have won five league titles in the past six years; they are only 0.29 better off than Tottenham in terms of overall average finishes. Then again, when you consider the ability of Pep Guardiola’s men, they will be more likely to eye up Chelsea in fourth. 


Manchester City's Power Surge: Making Up for Lost Time in the Premier League

Even with their 5 league titles in the last 6 years, Man City only edges Tottenham by 0.29 in average finishes! πŸ†πŸ”΅ But Pep Guardiola's squad is eyeing up Chelsea in fourth. βš½οΈπŸ‘€ Their current dominance compensates for 5 less Premier League seasons! πŸ”₯



Of course, that arguably says more about City’s current dominance and with them playing five Premier League seasons less than their North London counterparts, they have certainly made up for lost time in recent years.

While one interesting parallel is that of Tottenham and Everton, many have believed that these two clubs have possessed a decent amount of symmetry in the Premier League era – if only because they have been in the shadow of their nearest neighbours for quite some time.

Tottenham are aiming to return to the ascendency under new manager Ange Postecoglou and any finish that is seventh or less will be heralded as success. The same when looking at the numbers 17 or above could be said for Everton at the end of this season. 

A SMALLER SAMPLE

premier league footballImage: shutterstock

Another thing to consider is the fact that 30 years’ worth of data will tell one story but perhaps it does not tell you the correct one and therefore, a trimming of our statistical sample may stand us in good stead here.

Therefore, we will look at average finishing positions from 2010/11 onwards and see just what differences we can find to the tables above. 

TeamAverage Position
Manchester City1.71
Manchester United4.00
Liverpool4.36
Arsenal4.36
Chelsea4.50
Tottenham4.79
Leicester9.00
Everton10.00
Newcastle11.23
West Ham11.38

As you can see things are now a lot different and whereas Manchester United were top of the pile previously, they have now been usurped by their neighbours in blue. While in addition to this, Manchester City’s average finishing position is less than 2.00.

1.77 to be exact and with so many Premier League titles coming their way in the past decade, it is obvious why Pep Guardiola’s men are currently head and shoulders above the rest of their top-flight counterparts.

While another interesting point here is the fact that Manchester United and Chelsea did have the exact same average finish of 3.75 since the 2010/11 season. Although with contrasting fortunes during the 2022/23 campaign, the Red Devils have now pulled clear in second.

Manchester Overhaul: City's Dominance and Man Utd's Struggle In Recent Premier League Years

Man Utd's reign toppled by their blue neighbours in recent years! πŸ”΅πŸ’ͺ Man City’s average finish dips below 2.00, exactly 1.77 courtesy of recent league titles! πŸ†πŸŽ― Man Utd & Chelsea were tied at 3.75 average finish since 2010/11 but Red Devils pulled ahead in 22/23! βš½οΈπŸ”΄

Chelsea’s dreadful showing has only tightened the bunch between themselves in third and Tottenham in sixth. There is just 0.39 of a position’s difference between a group that also includes Liverpool and Arsenal, it just highlights how tight the race for a top four finish will always be.

Of course, Arsenal have managed to put some daylight between themselves and their North London rivals Tottenham. The situation would have been helped by finishing second in last season’s Premier League, continue that trajectory and both Chelsea and Liverpool will be there for the taking. 

Beyond the big six, it is all change and after Leicester’s incredible title-winning season of 2016, the Foxes now find themselves with an average finish of 9.00 since the end of the 2010/11 season. However, their average was only increased after suffering relegation to the Championship.

While Everton has made a slight improvement on their all-time offering at 9.62 but just like Leicester above, their average was actually increased due to such a poor showing during the duration of the 2022/23 campaign.

As for the rest of the top 10, Brentford’s two season’s in the Premier League have averaged out at an 11th place finish. While European qualifiers West Ham and Newcastle have to make sure with sharing 10th in this list with an average of 11.58.

ALL EYES ON AUGUST

Another way to provide further context to this data is by looking at the 20 Premier League clubs that are going to embark on the 2022/23 season and see how each of them currently performs from an average finish point of view.

TeamAverage PositionSeasons
Manchester United2.6331
Arsenal3.9431
Liverpool4.3131
Chelsea4.8831
Manchester City6.9626
Tottenham7.4131
Newcastle9.7628
Aston Villa10.2128
Everton10.7531
Leicester11.1817

The one outlier that we first need to point out, is that Luton enter the dataset with an average of 0.00. With no Premier League history to call upon just yet, the newly promoted side will be hoping that their first entry is not 18 or above.

Luton's Leap: Newly Promoted Side Eyes Successful Premier League Debut

Luton debuts in our dataset with a 0.00 average due to no #PremierLeague history - yet! πŸ†•βš½οΈ The newly promoted side aims to dodge the 18th spot or above in their inaugural season! πŸ™πŸ™Œ

While their two promotion counterparts would certainly be happy in maintaining the averages that they currently have Burnley and Sheffield United may be towards the bottom of the list, neither would have any arguments with a 15th and 16th place finish respectively. 

Burnley currently share their average of 15.00 with Nottingham Forest and after staying up at the end of the 2022/23 campaign, Steve Cooper’s men must be careful that they do not succumb to second syndrome season this time around.

The same will be said of both Fulham and Bournemouth. On average the are currently one and two positions better off than that of Forest and if they delivered 13th and 14th at the end of this upcoming season, the champagne corks will certainly be popping in West London and Dorset.

Brighton are another team that have an average finish of 13th, but you get that feeling that this number is soon going to lower and if the Seagulls make European expeditions a regular occurrence, expect their average finish to be a lot closer to 10.00

Whether there is a real correlation between 2023/24 finishes and previous average rankings remains to be seen. Then again, it is going to be a whole lot of fun analysing the fortunes of each of the 20 clubs involved.

Editorial Information

This article was researched and fact-checked by Dan Tracey who also then added the words - Dan is a multi-talented writer, data analyst and podcaster whose six-year career in the sports data sphere has seen incredible successes. From helping UEFA create their annual technical reports to writing articles for Sports Betting Websites, including sites like TheLinesUS and Goal 


Data correct as of 1st August 2023 – Source: Wikipedia.

No Comments

There are no comments here. Be the first to comment...

Please login or register to reply to this news article
KEEP READING
🎀 Chris Sutton Exclusive Interview

🎀 Chris Sutton Exclusive Interview

Speaking exclusively to OLBG, Chris Sutton says players going on strike is 'absolute nonsense and won't happen and that he can see Robbie Savage managing in the football leagueβ€¦β€˜but wouldn’t be his assistant’.
Continue Reading
🎀 Dave Hancock Interview with OLBG

🎀 Dave Hancock Interview with OLBG

In an exclusive interview with OLBG Dave Hancock of Apollo MIS, former Leeds, Chelsea and England physio and a world-renowned expert on athlete fitness, injury, performance and sports science, previews the forthcoming football season after another busy summer of action.
Continue Reading
🎀 Emile Heskey Exclusive Interview with OLBG

🎀 Emile Heskey Exclusive Interview with OLBG

Exclusive interview with Emile Heskey: Eberechi Eze can be like 2004 Wayne Rooney at Euro 2024, Eddie Howe should replace Gareth Southgate, Jack Grealish snub is shocking, Tammy Abraham is a good fit for Aston Villa, Liverpool can get Β£100m for Salah and should sign Michael Olise
Continue Reading