
Writer, analyst, podcaster, Spurs fan. Three out of four is not bad. If there is a data angle, I will find it.
With a new Premier League season now just weeks away, it is time to dive into the data once more. Although the finishing positions of the previous campaign will offer an insight to future performance, they may also be an isolated statistic at the same time.
Analyzing Historic Data: Predicting the Ebb and Flow of Coming Premier League Season
Because punching above your weight in one single campaign or having a season to forget are not necessarily a precursor to what will happen during 2024/25 and with 33 years of finishing positions to hand, we are now able to build a better outlook on where teams are expected to end up.
Something that comes in the shape of average Premier League table finishes and although Liverpool may be the dominant force in English football right now, they have not always had things their own way.
MANCHESTER IS RED
Manchester United are one of six teams that have never suffered relegation from the Premier League, four of the other five are fully paid up members of the "big six" but there is a member missing and that is due to Manchester City's spell in the wilderness a generation or so ago.
Their place in the first data table is taken by Everton and with the blue half of Merseyside being a proud everpresent in the Premier League, it will be interesting to see how they stack up against the other five teams that are in focus.
Team | Average Position |
---|---|
Manchester United | 3.00 |
Arsenal | 3.88 |
Liverpool | 4.21 |
Chelsea | 4.85 |
Tottenham | 7.70 |
Everton | 10.82 |
As you can see it is the Old Trafford outfit that has the best average finishing position in Premier League history, and this can largely be explained by the 13 titles that were won under the leadership of Sir Alex Ferguson.
With an average finish of 3.00, they are just under one position better off than Arsenal and with the North Londoners being one of three clubs that sit within a position of each other in terms of average finishes, the moniker of best of the rest is certainly up for grabs.
Old Trafford's Dominance: Sir Alex Ferguson's Legacy and the Race for 'Best of the Rest
Although Arsenal earned three Premier League crowns in seven seasons between 1998 and 2004, they have been in the title darkness since and with Liverpool and Chelsea not all that far behind, the current trajectory suggests a change in ranking is not all that far away.
With Liverpool and Chelsea also averaging a finishing position of less than fifth, they have managed to put some distance between themselves and Tottenham and although the white half of North London has done well to bring their average down, it is still nearly whole places more than Manchester United.
Because even Tottenham have had regular dalliances in the Champions League in recent times, their first 10 years in the Premier League were a decade to forget and their average would not have been helped by the abysmal 17th place finish that was recorded at the end of the 2024/25 season.
Top 5 Struggle: Comparing Liverpool, Chelsea, and Tottenham's Premier League Histories
Then again, Everton will be happy that they are still in the Premier League before their move to a new stadium and with the return of David Moyes at the helm, there is a much sunnier disposition in the blue half of Merseyside.
With an all-time average of 10.82 in terms of Premier League finishes, the first objective will be to whittle that down below 10 and the best way to do that is by returning the Toffee's to European football as soon as possible.
THE ETIHAD OUTFIT
With us now getting an idea of what the average finishing positions look like for our group of ever-presents, here are the 10 lowest average finishes of all time.
Team | Average Position | Total Positions | Seasons |
---|---|---|---|
Manchester United | 3.00 | 99 | 33 |
Arsenal | 3.88 | 128 | 33 |
Liverpool | 4.21 | 139 | 33 |
Chelsea | 4.85 | 160 | 33 |
Manchester City | 6.82 | 191 | 28 |
Tottenham | 7.70 | 254 | 33 |
Newcastle | 9.60 | 288 | 30 |
Blackburn | 10.00 | 180 | 18 |
Leeds | 10.07 | 151 | 15 |
Aston Villa | 10.07 | 302 | 30 |
Here five of previous group of six are joined by the quintet of Manchester City, Newcastle, Blackburn, Leeds, and Aston Villa but there is one glaring omission and that comes in the shape of Everton who are now outside of the top 10.
David Moyes' men may have been comfortable in terms of recording league status but the rise and rise of Aston Villa has seen the West Midlands move into joint ninth with an average league finish of 10.07 - one that they subsequently share with Leeds who are returning to the Premier League for the 2025/26 season.
As for Manchester City, they have won five league titles in the past seven years; and they are only 0.88 better off than Tottenham in terms of overall average finishes. Then again, when you consider the ability of Pep Guardiola’s men, they will be more likely to eye up Chelsea in fourth in the next couple of years.
Manchester City's Power Surge: Making Up for Lost Time in the Premier League
Of course, that arguably says more about City’s current dominance and with them playing five Premier League seasons less than their North London counterparts, they have certainly made up for lost time in recent years.
While Newcastle's output should not be overlooked and their average finish will have certainly been lowered thanks to the efforts of the current Magpies' crop and with two Champions League finishes being secured in the past three seasons, Eddie Howe's men have an average finish of 9.60 - 0.40 less than that of Blackburn in eighth.
A SMALLER SAMPLE
Image: shutterstock
Another thing to consider is the fact that 30 years’ worth of data will tell one story but perhaps it does not tell you the correct one and therefore, a trimming of our statistical sample may stand us in good stead here.
Therefore, we will look at average finishing positions from 2010/11 onwards and see just what differences we can find to the tables above.
Team | Average Position |
---|---|
Manchester City | 1.80 |
Liverpool | 4.13 |
Arsenal | 4.20 |
Chelsea | 4.47 |
Manchester United | 4.73 |
Tottenham | 5.60 |
Leicester | 9.90 |
Everton | 10.20 |
Newcastle | 10.79 |
West Ham | 11.57 |
As you can see things are now a lot different and whereas Manchester United were top of the pile previously, they have now been usurped by their neighbours in blue. While in addition to this, Manchester City’s average finishing position is less than 2.00.
1.80 to be exact and with so many Premier League titles coming their way in the past decade, it is obvious why Pep Guardiola’s men are currently head and shoulders above the rest of their top-flight counterparts.
While another interesting point here is the fact that Liverpool's recent title win means that they have now moved into second in the table with an average finish of 4.13 since 2010/11. However, there is just 0.60 between themselves and Manchester United in fiftth with Arsenal and Chelsea also squeezed into that pack - suggesting that this section of the table is rather volatile.
Manchester Overhaul: City's Dominance and Man Utd's Struggle In Recent Premier League Years
Manchester United's dreadful 2024/25 output has meant they have slipped behind their three nearest competitors and the distance between themselves and their crosstown rivals City has now got even bigger.
Of course, Arsenal have managed to put some daylight between themselves and their North London rivals Tottenham. The situation would have been helped by finishing second in last season’s Premier League, continue that trajectory and the current gap of 1.40 between the two enemies will only get bigger.
Beyond the big six, it is all change and after Leicester’s incredible title-winning season of 2016, the Foxes now find themselves with an average finish of 9.90 since the end of the 2010/11 season. However, their average was only increased after suffering relegation to the Championship.
While Everton has made a slight improvement on their all-time offering at 10.20 but just like Leicester above, their average was actually increased due to finishing outside the bottom half of the 2024/25 table. The Foxes and the Toffees sitting above Newcastle and West Ham who round out the top ten since the 2010/11 season.
ALL EYES ON AUGUST
Another way to provide further context to this data is by looking at the 20 Premier League clubs that are going to embark on the 2025/26 season and see how each of them currently performs from an average finish point of view.
Team | Average Position | Seasons |
---|---|---|
Manchester United | 2.63 | 31 |
Arsenal | 3.94 | 31 |
Liverpool | 4.31 | 31 |
Chelsea | 4.88 | 31 |
Manchester City | 6.96 | 26 |
Tottenham | 7.41 | 31 |
Newcastle | 9.76 | 28 |
Aston Villa | 10.21 | 28 |
Everton | 10.75 | 31 |
Leicester | 11.18 | 17 |
West Ham | 11.46 | 27 |
Brentford | 12.67 | 2 |
Brighton | 12.71 | 6 |
Fulham | 13.00 | 16 |
Southampton | 13.38 | 24 |
Wolves | 13.60 | 9 |
Bournemouth | 13.71 | 6 |
Crystal Palace | 14.07 | 14 |
Nottingham Forest | 15.29 | 6 |
Ipswich | 16.00 | 5 |
With Leeds sitting joint-ninth in terms of current Premier League members (class of 2025/26), they would be delighted with a finish of that stature but with the gulf between the top two tiers of English football seemingly expanding each year, such a task for the Elland Road outfit will be easier said than done.
While their two promotion counterparts would certainly be happy in maintaining the averages that they currently have Burnley and Sheffield United may be towards the bottom of the list, neither would have any arguments with a 15th and 16th place finish respectively - again though, this could be perceived as wishful thinking.
Burnley currently have an average of 15.44 before the 2025/26 season gets underway and with many people expecting them to return to the Championship at the first time of asking, there is every possibility this figure gets larger come the end of nexr season.
However, the Clarets do have some reasoning to be cheerful and that is because their average position is not as bad as Sheffield United's. The Blades return to the Premier League with an average finish of 16.83 at present, if that figure is not increased at the end of next season it will be something of a miracle.
At the same time, wins for the likes of Brentford, Brighton, Fulham and Bournemouth are no longer a miracle and with the four clubs only seperated by 1.13 average places (12.00 all the way to 13.13), this quartet of clubs will want to not only get back in the top half of the table but also edge their way into the conversation regarding European qualification.
Editorial Information
This article was researched and fact-checked by Dan Tracey who also then added the words - Dan is a multi-talented writer, data analyst and podcaster whose six-year career in the sports data sphere has seen incredible successes. From helping UEFA create their annual technical reports to writing articles for Sports Betting Websites, including sites like TheLinesUS and Goal
Data correct as of 11th June 2025 – Source: Wikipedia.