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Next German Chancellor Betting Odds

Published: Aug 31, 5:13pm Last Updated: Sep 15, 11:46am Political Betting 0 Comments 45 Views

Next German Chancellor Odds

  • Bookmaker favourite Olaf Scholz (1/4) of the SPD has not ruled out joining forces with the Left Party which could propel him to power.

  • The Conservative CDU candidate Armin Laschet (3/1) is trailing in the polls and with online bookmakers after a lacklustre early campaign.

  • Angela Merkel's successor will need to form coalitions to secure the Chancellorship.  

  • Green + FPD + SPD is the favourite next german government coalition with the betting exchanges.

Huge Olaf Scholz Gamble

In the middle of August Olaf Scholz of the SPD was 5/1 to be the next German Chancellor, he is now the odds on favourite.

 German Chancellor Angela Merkel has arguably been the leading European politician for the last 15 years, she is now bowing out of politics and the race is on for her successor. 

There are two leading and viable candidates to be the new Chancellor of Germany, Armin Laschet of the Christian Democratic Union, Angela Merkel's party, and, Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic Party who is the current Vice-Chancellor. 


Both leading parties and candidates will have to form a coalition with other parties to form a working government. 

Once a Parliament has been formed they vote for a new chancellor

The two leading candidates for the Next German Chancellor were incredibly close, however, Scholz has forged ahead after impressing in the TV debates, as you can see by the online betting odds below. 

Next German Chancellor Best Betting Odds  Bookmaker Percentage Chance
Olaf Scholz - SPD 1/4 66.67%
 Armin Laschet - CDU 3/1 33.33%
Markus Soder - CSU 20/1 4.76%
Annalena Baerbcock - Green Party 20/1 4.76%

Armin Laschet

Alongside this, the winning party in the German election is going the same way with the SPD, given over a 75% chance of winning the most seats.  

The election will take place on the 26th of September 2021, so we have a few weeks for both candidates to impress/put their foot in it.  

Party Most Seats Bookmaker Percentage Chance
SPD 3/10 76.92%
CDU/CSU 3/1 25.00%
Green Party 20/1 4.76%

German Politics

The CDU Conservatives with Mrs. Merkel in charge have been the pre-eminent party in recent years, the current CDU leader Armin Laschet has not stepped up to the plate after being expected to succeed Merkel. 

Olaf Scholz was nominated as the official SPD candidate for Chancellor in August, recent polls showed him leading the race and his campaigning has gone down well with voters. 

The left-leaning SPD has been in coalition with the CDU under Merkel.

New bookmaker favourite to be chancellor Olaf Scholz of the SPD has not ruled out joining forces with the Left Party which could propel him to power.

Political loyalties come and go, parties in Germany engage in horsetrading as you can see by the complicated exchange betting makeup of the possible different alliances.

All these configurations can be backed or bet against at the bookmakers or betting exchanges, naturally, the odds will change as money comes in for different groupings.

The rows highlighted in blue have seen betting support, the rows in red have drifted.  

New German Government After Election

Possible Coalition  Ideology Bookmaker Odds
SPD + FDP + GREEN Left-Leaning/Liberal/Green 2.94
Conservative/Left Leaning
CDU + Green + FDP Conservative/Green/Liberal 5.0
Conservative/Green/Left Leaning
Conservative/Left Leaning/Liberal
CDU/CSU + GREEN Conservative/Green 26.0
CDU/CSU + FDP Conservative/Liberal 34.0

If you are new to betting exchanges and how they work please visit the dedicated betting exchange page or the laying and exchange betting school page

2017 German Election Results

Here is how the parties performed at the 2017 German Elections.

You can see by the percentages that each party has historically won that parties need to work with others and offer concessions so they can form a government that can legislate. 

Party Percentage Vote Seats Won
CDU/CSU 32.9% 246
SPD 20.5% 153
AFD 12.6% 94
FDP 10.7 80
Left Party 9.2% 69
Green 8.9% 67

German Chancellors Since 1949

Since 1949 there have been 8 Chancellors of Germany, 5 have come from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and 3 from the Social Democratic Party Of Germany (SPD). 

Chancellor Of Germany Tenure Party
Angela Merkel 2005 - 2021 CDU
Gerard Schroder 1988 -2005 SPD
Helmut Kohl 1982 -1998 CDU
Helmut Schmidt 1974 -1982 SPD
Willy Brandt 1969 - 1974 SPD
Kurt George Kiesinger  1966 -1969 CDU
Ludwig Erhard 1963 -1966 CDU
Konrad Adenauer 1949 -1963 CDU


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