Horse Racing Trainers To Follow In January

Horse Racing Trainers To Follow In January

January Trainers

Happy New Year!  

The idea behind this blog is to try and highlight trainers that consistently perform better at certain times of the year, the theory is that trainers are creatures of habit that peak their horse at different times, target specific races/meetings, and hit seems of form in particular months.  

I have kept a record over the years as I bet each of these horses to a small level stake.  

We select the trainers using SP statistics and I look for trainers that have a combination of Level Staked Profit (LSP) and a strike rate of around 20%.  Our Profit/Loss comes from our own Early Price figures using Best Odds Guaranteed bookmakers and the exchanges when the prices are out of line.  Using this combination we have made a profit in 6 of the 9 years with an overall +LSP at the time of writing. 

I will aim to keep a daily diary of performance which usually appears at the bottom of the blog this will show the ups and downs of the year, the frustrations and celebrations, providing a light-hearted look at the day to day experience of betting on horses.  

We start the Tenth year of the blog and our record to date reads:-

2013 +£54.99 LSP

2014 +£45.67 LSP

2015 +£192.53 LSP

2016 +£198.89 LSP

2017 (£123.20) LSL

2018 (£186.81) LSL

2019 +£11.83 LSP

2020 (£184.72) LSL 

2021 +£33.20 LSP 

 

2020 was a bit of a duff year, Covid messed with trainers and racing schedules so I've pretty much written it off in terms of meaningful figures.  It was nice to get back on track last year even if it was a small profit.

I'm happy there is still some merit to what we are doing and even if we can't reach the heady profits of 2015 and 16 I'm sure there is potential for a treble figure year.

 

January was really good for us last year with almost +£124 LSP, from 11 trainers and our biggest losing trainer was just (£5.70) LSP.  I don't see any point in getting clever, I'm just going with all the same trainers apart from David Elsworth who has retired.

So we have ten trainers to go to war with, 6 NH and 4 AW, lets hope we can start the year with a bang!

 

National Hunt

 

NICKY RICHARDS (NON HURDLERS)

Shrewd Greystoke trainer who usually has his best figures in December and January, he was the star of the show last year when Takingrisks (Ironically retired today) won the Skybet chase at Doncaster at 40's (we bet it at 60's on the exchanges).

  • 2016     2/10     20%     +£1.00
  • 2017     3/17     18%     +£10.88
  • 2018     2/11     18%     +£1.00
  • 2019     5/14     33%     +£1.53
  • 2020     3/13     23%      +£5.75
  • 2021     2/7       29%     +£45.00

Our own figures were +£68 and whilst he had a couple of hurdle winners last year that was agianst the norm so just his Chase and NH Flat runners.

 

OLLY MURPHY (ALL)

New to the blog last January but he didn't let us down, accumulating +£15.10 LSP

  • 2018     10/31     32%     +£19.75
  • 2019      8/43      19%      (£10.56)
  • 2020     15/39     38%     +£29.68
  • 2021     10/52     19%      +£  2.71

With our Early Price figures five times the SP it should pay to get on early.  Don't worry about his poor recent record it was a similar story last year.

 

NICK WILLIAMS (ALL)

Devon trainer who made a small profit for us in the last two seasons.

  • 2017     5/20     25%    +£16.13
  • 2018     5/20     25%    +£28.50
  • 2019     3/10     30%    +£ 5.00
  • 2020     3/15     20%     (£ 0.63)
  • 2021     2/10     20%     +£ 0.38

We might have been a little unlucky not to make more profit in 2020 as he had 5 seconds, comes into the month on the back of a winning November and December, lets hope he can keep the run going.

 

NICKY HENDERSON (HURDLERS) 

Blog regular who has been firing in the winners, if we had stuck with his hurdlers last month, we would have made a much healthier profit.

  • 2014     5/23     22%     +£13.44
  • 2015    14/35    40%     +£10.09
  • 2016     9/24     21%     +£12.73
  • 2017    13/34    38%     +£11.28
  • 2018    14/38    37%     +£11.70
  • 2019    12/34    35%      (£10.14)
  • 2020    15/50    30%     +£ 7.28
  • 2021     4/25     16%       (£4.50)

Our own figures were slightly better but not quite in profit, his stable were under a bit of a cloud last January, he was taking about closing the stable for a short period and that was probably reflected in the number of runners.  He's flying at present and I expect him to get back to his usual 25%+ strike rate.

 

ANTHONY HONEYBALL (ALL)

Dorset trainer, another who gave a small loss last January.

  • 2017     3/15    20%    (£5.75)
  • 2018     7/14    50%   +£11.39
  • 2019     2/3      67%   +£ 0.86
  • 2020     8/18    44%    +£ 1.56
  • 2021     3/16    19%     (£5.75)

Fantastic strike rate up to last year and our figures showed just a 2 point loss, on the back of a winning December I think we stick with him.

 

SUE SMITH (ALL)

A regular to the January blog and last year was the first time she didn't give a profit.

  • 2014 10/40 25% +£27.28
  • 2015 8/32 25% +£31.25
  • 2016 4/22 18% +£ 7.00
  • 2017 7/26 27% +£11.00
  • 2018 9/39 23%  +£0.70
  • 2019 8/19 42% +£41.25
  • 2020 8/27 30% +£12.04
  • 2021 1/6   17%   (£4.43)

I didn't realise at the time but her runners were well down last year, she'd had at least 20 runners every month from October through to April and every previous January, I might be making excuses but maybe something was amiss in the stable.

 

 

AW

The All Weather meetings make up a big part of the schedule in January.  Last year the AW blog performed really well with 3 of the 5 trainers showing a profit which totalled +£49.00 LSP

 

MARK JOHNSTON (4YO+) now (CHARLIE & MARK JOHNSTON)

Now another joint father and son operation, father gave a really good showing last year.

  • 2017     4/17     24%     +£ 0.41
  • 2018     3/9       33%     +£ 5.25
  • 2019     4/11     36%     +£22.48
  • 2020     5/25     20%      (£ 2.88)
  • 2021    14/24    58%     +£47.68

Strangely (and this rarely happens) our own figures +£45.60 were less than the SP!  I've either made a mistake with a price or we took a price with a non BOG bookmaker and it drifted.  Still a fantastic showing regardless.

 

CHARLIE APPLEBY (ALL)

Back from last year where he made a small profit, not likely to have lots of runners but expect the ones he does send out to go well.

  • 2015 16/45 36% +£ 2.94
  • 2016 1/4 25% (£ 1.00)
  • 2017 3/4 75% +£ 3.60
  • 2018 7/18 39% +£1.14
  • 2019 2/9 22% (£1.75)
  • 2020 5/12 42% (£0.45)
  • 2021 6/11 55%  +£0.25

Our own figures showed a +£2.88 profit last year and +£2.40 in 2020 hard to ignore with such a prolific strike rate.

 

ARCHIE WATSON (ALL)

Lambourne trainer who was the biggest loser last year but at only (£5.70) which shows what a great month we had.

  • 2017     3/11     27%     +£ 5.50
  • 2018     8/25     32%     +£34.13
  • 2019     4/49     14%      (£27.17)
  • 2020     8/46     17%     +£ 5.38
  • 2021    10/50    20%     (£13.19)

Had a bad start to the month last year but ended really well, 6 of his last 16 won, almost half his runners finished in the first three during the month.

 

KEITH DALGLEISH (3YO'S)

Scottish trainer, we're just concentrating on his 3yo's again this month.

  • 2018     3/6      50%     +£18.50
  • 2019     1/4      25%     +£  5.00
  • 2020     2/8      25%     +£18.50
  • 2021     0/2        0%      (£2.00)

It seems a bit daft to omit him on the strength of just two runners after sure a good prior record, he's shown a profit on the AW in each of the last three months as well.

 

Thats all folks!

 

As always, any questions, observations please leave below, lets try and get another profitable year!

 

Results

1st - A bit of an inauspicious start with just one Smith winner (13/2), three seconds at Cheltenham and a last fence faller that may have won.     1/17     (£9.50)

2nd - Better today, Honeyball got it rolling with a 13/8 winner then Watson with a 5's winner that returned 11/4.     2/7     +£1.63

3rd - Blank day, slightly worrying start.     0/8     (£8.00)

4th - Just another Honeyball winner.     1/5     (£2.38)

5th - It's a good job we have Honeyball!  8's winner today, first decent day of the year.     1/4     +£5.00

6th - Honeyball again and Johnston got off the mark, small winning day.     2/8     +£1.50

7th - Losing day but Johnston starting to hit his straps is a good sign.     1/5     (£2.25)

8th - Saturdays are big for the success of the blog and today was a big Saturday, Honeyball's Jepek won at 40's, backed at 60's but had a 10p R4, winners for Hendo, Smith and Murphy added to the profits.     4/15     +£55.69

9th - Just the one runner today and it was second.     0/1     (£1.00)

Fantastic first week largely down to Honeyball who has provided 5 of the 12 winners so far and the biggest two prices at 55's (after r4) and 8's, Smith and Johnston have both provided two winners and are shpwing a LSP.  Murphy, Henderson and Watson are the worst performers with just 1 winner each from double figure runners.

10th - Murphy shorty and Johnston was second with a 10's shot, Hendo becoming a worry, all 4 runners were poor again today.     1/7     (£5.16)

11th - Another quiet day, 2 placed was the best we could muster.     0/3     (£3.00)

12th - Winning day courtesy of Murphy (6's) and Appleby (10/11).     2/6     +£2.90

13th - Four winners on the day but nothing bigger than 9/4 so tiny profit.     4/10     +£0.16

14th - Poor day, nothing even went close.     0/5     (£5.00)

15th - I was ready with bated pen for all the frustrating, unlucky lines when Hendo had three chase winners (we're on his hurdlers) Watson (our AW trainer) had a NH winner and Murphy (our NH trainer) had a AW winner!!! then Hendo landed the last hurdles race at 11/2 (he had the second at 25's as well) and Watson landed the 4.45 at 11's (returned 9's)  meaning we had a nice profit on the day as our AW trainers were 3/4.     4/18     +£6.88

16th - Just the one runner and it lost.     0/1     (£1.00)

Quiet week on the whole, slight loss but Murphy and Watson are starting to hit form which is good, Hendo's hurdle form still a worry.

17th - Another quiet day, the closest we got was a Murphy second.     0/4     (£4.00)

18th - Losing day, Honeyball had a double at Exeter but Smith was beaten a nose with a 12's shot that would have made all the difference.     2/10     (£5.25)

19th - A Johnston double at Southwell gave us a winning day, he's now 5/12 with his 4yo+ runners if you include the demoted winner.     3/7     +£1.08

20th - Some days I look at our runners and know that we'll be struggling to make a profit, yesterday was a perfect example, we had 4 runners in a Novice hurdle with an odds on fav, you kind of know that most of them are just running to get a handicap mark.  We then had three in a handicap against a strong fav so we needed the winner of that, unfortunately we had the second, third and fourth!!     0/11     (£11.00)

21st - The day started well with a 9/2 Appleby winner, nothing after though, small loss.     1/7     (£1.50)

22nd - Plenty ran well today, Sam Brown was just touched off at 8's, Hendo had a second at 9's and Johnston the same at 11's, our winner looked beat 2 out however so that was a bonus and Jonbon did the stuff at a short price.     2/14     (£6.56)

23rd - Winning end to what has been a poor week, Hendo is having loads of Chase winners and we are on his hurdlers!  He did manage a hurdler and Murphy too.     2/5     +£2.08

24th - No Runners.

25th - Our last runner of the day won with some nice BOG gains (backed at 13/2, returned 7/2) and that sealed a small winning day.     3/10     +£2.16

26th - Three seconds but no winners, we need to get back on track to end the month in profit.     0/8     (£8.00)

27th - Really disappointing, 7 runners were 7/2 or shorter and from them we managed just one odds on winner and as a result we are now at a loss for the month.   1/11  (£9.80)

28th - Another poor day, just a Johnston winner, we are going to need a big weekend to turn this around.     1/10     (£8.00)

29th - We really got out of jail today thanks to Sue Smith, the Murphy runners at Uttoxeter were abismal, we had three seconds from our four Cheltenham runners but Smith landed the bumper at Donny at 14's to go with her Uttoxeter 6's winner, a shorty for Appleby sealed a tiny profit.     3/23     +£0.58

30th - We asked for a big weekend and Honeyball provided one with a 20's winner at Fontwell, with just 3 runners tomorrow we've guaranteed profit for the month.    1/5     +£16.00

31st - We finished with a nice Hendo winner (9's) so a healthy profit to take into next month.     1/3     +£7.00 

 

Total

43/246     17.48%      +£11.26

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