Premier League XG Table (Stats & Impact on Football Betting) 2022/23 Update

 While the concept of statistics within football has primarily been a popular one when looking for predictions to place at betting sites, there has been a data explosion in recent years and if any action takes place on the field of play, you can be sure it will be captured as some form of metric.

Metrics that have changed the way to digest and discuss football, and arguably the most significant change in recent times, has been the rise of Expected Goals or xG as it is perhaps better known by those in the game.

What is xG in Football?

Expected goals (or xG) measure the quality of an opportunity of a goal by calculating the likelihood that it will be scored from a particular position on the pitch during a particular phase of play. xG in football is a statistic demonstrating what might or should happen rather than what has happened

This new Expected Goals measure divides fandom into those who believe the new method and those who consider themselves sceptics.

For those that do not believe in the power of xG, their argument is based upon the lack of genuine facts. “How can you score 1.45 goals?” is a line often parroted by the naysayers looking for football betting tips, as they fail to look into football’s statistical future.

While for those who do buy into the new age of performance metric models, have the ability to shape a different argument on how an individual player or team is performing and this argument comes in the form of a comparative benchmark.

THE BIG QUESTION

Of course, for those who only have a passing interest in football or perhaps have been blinkered by the concept of Expected Goals in the past, it may make sense to enlighten everyone, and the best way to do that is by explaining what the concept is.

Expected Goals can be explained as such:

Expected goals (or xG) measure the quality of a chance by calculating the likelihood that it will be scored from a particular position on the pitch during a particular phase of play

 To explain further; If a team scored 61 goals in a season but their xG was 64.51, it would indicate a slight underperformance in terms of the chances that were created and some shots that would have been expected to hit the back of the net, failed to do so.

While in comparison to that, if a team scored 61 goals in a season but their xG was 57.32 for the campaign, this would indicate an overperformance in front of goal and chances that were considered trickier in nature, were ones that still got the better of the opposition.

Now that we have an idea of what the metric actually means and how it can be used as a benchmark for performance, we can now apply this to the final current Premier League table of 2022/23 and see how teams shaped up in front of goal.

First here is a simplified version of the current Premier League table, with an additional metric of xG and the difference between actual Goals For and their xG for the season so far: 

As you can see, the top six teams in the Premier League table have all outperformed their xG and for those at the higher end of the league ladder, such a finding is not to be unexpected if only because they are no slouches in front of goal with their scoring chances.

While of those teams in the bottom six, five of those are currently underperforming in front of goal when using the measure of expectation and the only outlier here are Burnley, as the Clarets have a slight improvement. However, you could also argue that they work from a relatively small base.

That aside, if we assume a hypothesis that teams at the top of the table will overperform in front of goal and teams at the bottom will do the opposite, the data above almost proves our suggestion perfectly.

WHERE IS THE CONTEXT

Like so many other statistical conversations, the table below is nothing without context and while using the existing data above, we are now going to add a rank column – one that allows us to get a better idea of the true over and underachievers. 

With Arsenal and Manchester City acting as the top two in the real life table, they also lock out the first two in the table above – albeit with the positions swapped but it does highlight that if you can outperform your xG in such a sizeable manner, you are likely to be competing for the big prizes.

However, it does also highlight that once you get out of the title race, the correlation between the two metrics is not as strong as first thought. Manchester United may have finished third in the final league table, they are conversely third bottom in this one.

While fellow Champions League qualifiers Newcastle could only make do with 15th in the ranking table. Even though Eddie Howe’s men scored 68 goals by the end of last season, they were expected to net 72.

Tottenham had a miserable season by their own standards, no European football for new boss Ange Postecoglou to look forward to and were it not for the talents of Harry Kane, there overperformance by 12.9 goals would be nowhere near as high.

Overperformance is one the key elements of Fulham’s season. No longer the Premier League yo-yo club, now Marco Silva’s men will be looking to build on such an impressive showing across the season – one that saw them score 8.8 more goals than first expected. 

At the bottom of the table, Everton’s issues in attack are highlighted in more detail. The Toffees found themselves in something of a sticky situation and only managed to stay up on the final day of the 2022/23 season.

Sean Dyche’s men underperformed by 11.2 goals and with them now surviving by the skin of their teeth in two consecutive seasons, a repeat of these attacking woes may mean that is third time unlucky for the blue half of Merseyside. 

As bad as Everton where they were not bottom of the pile. That unwanted honour is bestowed to Chelsea and with Mauricio Pochettino now at the managerial helm, he is going to have to work on a team that underperformed by 11.5 goals.

TIME TO PROVE OR DISPROVE

As we know from the first two tables, Manchester City and Arsenal have flipped positions from first to second. With this, there is a relative correlation between their final position and their expected goals rank.

But does this correlation continue the further down the table you go? The answer to this is a muddled one. We know how Manchester and Newcastle United fared, as they underperformed compared to league placings.

Liverpool in fifth, managed to find parity in the first two metrics, and the same can be said for fellow European qualifiers Aston Villa. Unai Emery’s finished seventh in the table and seventh when it comes to outperforming expected goals.

One thing to remember when comparing two ranks is that the sum total of all the results will always come back to zero. No matter the positives and negatives, they always balance back out in the end. 

This means another way to look at the above table is to list them in terms of difference against the two and see just where the wildest or narrowest swings are and when we shuffle it around, it looks as follows: 

The most striking thing that you will notice here is that three of the top four teams in this list were the trio that were subsequently relegated to the EFL Championship. Outperformance for Leeds, Leicester, and Southampton but it means nothing with such leaky defences at the other end.

Leeds scored 48 goals last season and that is not a number that should be sniffed at. The only problem is that they ended up conceding 78. An average of more than two goals per game, and this is a metric that means nothing else but relegation.

While their relegation counterparts Leicester scored an even more impressive 51 goals last season, they often say that clubs are too big to go down; unfortunately for the Foxes, their 68 conceded nullified such a statement.

CONCLUSION

Although xG should not necessarily be considered as gospel, it is a measure that is getting more and more understood with each season that passes and although some will still point to the fact that you cannot win matches with decimal points, you arguably need them to win league titles.

Because there is always a feeling that your xG will get you in the end, although a club may get lucky during one single encounter and somehow outperform their efforts in front of goal, they cannot outrun such a measure over 38 matches.

Outperform your xG and you will be much closer to league honours or at least an invite to Europe next season. Fail to get the better of the expectation and the relegation trapdoor may soon be ready to collect you. 

Source: Data correct as of JUNE 1ST 2023, taken from FBRef.com

So let's now dive deeper and take a look at some more information on xG in the Premier league

The Expected Goals Premier League 2022/23

Some readers of this article will have embraced the concept, some readers have tried but still do not understand and others simply bury their heads in the sand when it comes to one of football’s newest statistics.

A measure of not what did happen but what should have and with the expected value of shots now acting as a method to analyse how teams are performing truly, we will use Expected Goals or xG as it is better known to build a league table of our own.

ALSO READ

Expected Goals (xG) Betting Explained

While the way to do this, is by going back in time slightly and to build the best possible picture, we are going to look at each of the 380 Premier League matches that took place during the 2022/23 Premier League season.

Each of these matches will have seen a final score logged in the history books and in addition, it would have also seen an xG figure added alongside it. For example, lets take a look at the first evening of last season, as Crystal Palace played host to Arsenal.

Mikel Arteta’s men picked up maximum points at Selhurst Park but were actually unbeaten when it comes to expected goals. Crystal Palace registered 1.2 on the opening evening of the season, Arsenal registered just 1.0 by comparison.

A win of sorts for Palace but not enough of a win for the purposes of the league table we are aiming to build. Because to get a win in our creation, the team with the highest xG figure must be at least 0.5 clear to pick up three points.

Why 0.5? Because rounded up that is equal to 1 and this is the difference required to win a football match. If the two xG scores are within 0.5 of each other it constitutes a draw and if one team is more than 0.5 lower than their opposition, it means they go home empty-handed.

A QUICK REMINDER

Now that we have offered up the methodology of how our Premier League xG points are awarded, it makes sense to remind you of how the 2021/22 season finished: 

For those football fans who were living under a rock, Manchester City beat Arsenal to the title by five points. Liverpool missed Champions League football by four and the trio of Leicester, Leeds and Southampton were relegated.

Now we will present the xG table using our methodology and see who our Expected Goals Premier League champions are:

As life imitates art, Manchester City not only beat Arsenal once again, but they also repeated the margin of victory. Five points in the real life Premier League table, five points if you were deciding results by expected goals alone.

While Brighton managed to improve on their Europa League qualification on the real field of play by actually landing a spot in the Expected Goals Champions League. Using our results framework, the Seagulls would have finished third in the table. 

Three points behind the Gunners but four points ahead of the Magpies in fourth. Just like the top two in the table, Newcastle’s efforts mirror what they were expected to do and the same can be said for Liverpool in fifth.

This highlights that four of the top six positions are a mirror image and it is only the switch of places between Brighton in third and Manchester United six that stop this being a parity clean sweep of the top six positions. 

While the next three places are also filled by teams that finish between seventh and ninth in the 2022/23 Premier League table, but the order is jumbled. Brentford gained two places in our expected table, Aston Villa and Tottenham were worse off as a consequence.

This means that the first nine clubs in the final Premier League table find themselves in the top nine above. The first team to truly disrupt the sequence is Chelsea who moved up to 10th but in the top half of the expected table, the picture is far muddier.

Take the teams that would be relegated if points were awarded on an expected goals basis. Nottingham Forest, Wolves and Bournemouth may have all been survived in the theatre of Premier League warfare, they are not so fortunate here.

These three teams would find themselves relegated under this measure, they will each be glad that goals scored and not expected goals are not the absolute when it comes to deciding who wins and loses football matches.

WINNERS AND LOSERS

While a better way to compare and contrast is by seeing the points differences from one table to another and here, we will be able to get a much greater view of which teams profited via the method of xG and who were worse off. 

As referenced above, Brighton are the big winners when comparing the two league tables. Not only are they three positions better off, but they also have an additional 16 points to go in their bank account.

Roberto De Zerbi’s men would have won five more matches than they did and also picked up an additional draw for good measure. They do so Brighton are the kings of expected goals; this table reinforces that point. 

While West Ham have something else to celebrate after their Europa Conference League success. Admittedly gaining the second most expected points when compared to their real life results is not on the same scale but it is still a positive all the same.

11 more points positive it should be noted. David Moyes’ men have only picked up one more win, but they did pick up an additional eight draws along the way and in doing so, it upgraded a 14th place finish to 11th instead.

Leicester on the other hand will be bemoaning their defence. They finished nine points better off when looking at expected metrics, one additional win and six more draws but not enough to keep the Foxes out of the Championship.

Their relegated counterparts also would have picked up more points if deciding matches by expected goals. Leeds profited with four more points by virtue of a quartet of additional draws, Southampton picked up an extra pair of points along the way.

As for both Manchester City and Arsenal, they actually shed three points each. It makes no difference to the final standings, but it does show that both the Etihad outfit and the Gunners found the extra edge when it really matters.

At the bottom of this table, Fulham were 13 points worse off than in real life and this cost them three league places from 10th to 13th. Wolves lost 15 points below and slipped from 13th to 19th and Bournemouth shed no less than 18 points, as the Cherries fell from 15th to 20th. 

CONCLUSION

Now that we know how to use xG to award league points, there is nothing stopping us from doing the same during the 2023/24 season. Will on-pitch performance match the expectation of goals? Only time will tell. 

Data correct as of 1st June 2023.

Source Fbref.com

Meet The Author

Researched and written by Dan Tracey ahead of Publishing by Steve Madgwick

Dan Tracey is a multi-talented writer, data analyst and podcaster whose six-year career in the sports data sphere has seen incredible successes. From helping UEFA create their annual technical reports to writing articles for Sports Betting Websites including sites like TheLinesUS and Goal - there's no shortage of areas where his expertise shines through! In addition he can be heard on podcasts lending an insightful voice as well as providing weekly betting angles - all culminating with him teaming up OLBG.com in the present day. Simply put: wherever you find angled data being crunched? You'll also likely find Dan not far behind!