Can defense propel a team to Superbowl victory?

Updated: 1392 American Football

This time last year, I wrote a blog looking at recent defensivetrends in the NFL and whether these carried through into thepostseason. Although the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS pick didn't workout, the blog also identified the DENVER BRONCOS aspotential Superbowl winners based

Can defense propel a team to Superbowl victory?
Luke Bradshaw Lee Commercial Content Manager

Experienced journalist and editor covering multiple aspects within the online sports and casino industry, NFL and Rugby Specialist

NFL Defense Update

This time last year, I wrote a blog looking at recent defensive trends in the NFL and whether these carried through into the postseason.

2020 Update

I took a look at recent years NFL statistics as wanted to see if things had remained the same in relation to teams winning championships because of defense. 

The highlighted teams made the Conference Championship Games that year. 

The stats show 15 teams from a possible 60 positions. 

Yards Allowed

Year1st2nd3rd4th5th
2019New England PatriotsSan Francisco 49'sBuffalo BillsBaltimore RavensPittsburgh Steelers
2018Baltimore RavensBuffalo BillsChicago BearsMinnesota VikingsJacksonville Jaguars
2017Minnesota VikingsJacksonville JaguarsDenver BroncosPhiladelphia EaglesPittsburgh Steelers
2016Houston TexansArizona CardinalsMinnesota VikingsDenver BroncosSeattle Seahawks


Points Allowed

Year1st2nd3rd4th5th
2019New England PatriotsBuffalo BillsBaltimore RavensChicago BearsMinnesota Vikings
2018Chicago BearsBaltimore RavensTennessee TitansHouston TexansJacksonville Jaguars
2017Minnesota VikingsJacksonville JaguarsLos Angeles ChargersPhiladelphia EaglesNew England Patriots
2016New England PatriotsNew York GiantsSeattle SeahawksDenver BroncosDallas Cowboys


Turnovers Differential

Year1st2nd3rd4th5th
2019New England PatriotsNew Orleans SaintsGreen Bay PackersSeattle SeahawksMinnesota Vikings
2018Seattle SeahawksHouston TexansChicago BearsLos Angeles RamsNew England Patriots
2017Baltimore RavensKansas City ChiefsLos Angeles ChargersPhiladelphia EaglesDetroit Lions
2016Kansas City ChiefsLas Vegas RaidersNew England PatriotsAtlanta FalconsMinnesota Vikings

2010- 2015


Although the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS pick didn't work out, the blog also identified the DENVER BRONCOS as potential Superbowl winners based on their strong defensive play and they duly delivered with 7/2 (AFC Champions) and 7/1 (Superbowl) winners. 

So what about 2016? 

Are there any strong defenses in the NFL postseason and do they match up with recent trends to offer us one or two picks to keep us interested over the next month?

Yards Allowed

Year1st2nd3rd4th5th
2015DenverSeattleHoustonNew York JetsArizona
2014SeattleKansas CityBuffaloSan DiegoSan Francisco
2013SeattleNew OrleansHoustonBuffaloCincinnati
2012PittsburghNew York JetsDenverSan FranciscoArizona
2011PittsburghClevelandHoustonBaltimoreNew York Jets
2010San DiegoOaklandBuffaloNew OrleansGreen Bay

In 2015, four of the top five teams reached the playoffs. Houston were eliminated in the wildcard round, Seattle were eliminated in the divisional round, Arizona reached the NFC conference game whilst Denver won the Superbowl.

In 2014, only one of the five teams (Seattle) ranked inside in the top five made it into the postseason although the Seahawks made it all the way to the Superbowl. Seattle also made it all the way to the Superbowl in 2013, winning it, whilst two other teams in the top five also made it into the postseason, with New Orleans losing to Seattle and Cincinnati lasting just one game

In 2012, only Denver and San Francisco made it into the postseason although the 49ers went all the way to the Superbowl. 2011 saw three teams make the postseason but recorded only two wins.

2010 saw just two teams reach the postseason but whilst New Orleans lost their first game, Green Bay won the Superbowl.

Points Allowed

Year1st2nd3rd4th5th
2015SeattleCincinnatiKansas CityDenverMinnesota
2014SeattleDetroitDenverBuffaloSan Francisco
2013SeattleCarolinaCincinnatiNew OrleansSan Francisco
2012PittsburghDenverSan FranciscoSeattleChicago
2011PittsburghHoustonBaltimoreSan FranciscoNew York Jets
2010San DiegoPittsburghNew York JetsNew OrleansGreen Bay

In 2015, all the top five teams in terms of points allowed made it into the playoffs. Minnesota and Cincinnati didn't make it past the wildcard round whilst Kansas City and Seattle were eliminated in the divisional round. However, Denver went onto win the Superbowl.

The top three teams in 2014 all made it into the postseason but only Seattle made it past one game, reaching the Superbowl. Seattle also made it all the way to the Superbowl in 2013, winning it, whilst two other teams in the top five also made it into the postseason, with New Orleans losing to Seattle and Cincinnati lasting just one game

Three teams in 2012 went to the postseason but only Superbowl runners-up San Francisco made it past their first game. In 2011, Four teams made it into the postseason with three teams winning one round.

2010 was the most successful season for the top five in this category with four of the teams making the postseason and Green Bay winning it all whilst Pittsburgh and the Jets faced off in the AFC title game

Turnovers

Year1st2nd3rd4th5th
2015CarolinaArizonaNew York JetsPittsburghKansas City
2014HoustonDallasBuffaloClevelandSan Francisco
2013SeattleKansas CityCincinnatiPhiladelphiaTampa Bay
2012ChicagoNew EnglandNew York GiantsArizonaSeattle
2011San FranciscoGreen BayNew EnglandDetroitSeattle
2010New York GiantsNew EnglandPittsburghChicagoPhiladelphia

In 2015, four of the top five teams made it into the playoffs with Kansas City and Pittsburgh losing in the divisional round and Carolina defeating Arizona in the NFC Championship game before losing the Superbowl to Denver.

In 2014, only Dallas made it into the postseason, winning one round before being eliminated. The top four teams all reached the postseason in 2013 but only Seattle, who won the Superbowl, made it past their first match.

Two teams made it into the postseason in 2012 with both New England and Seattle making it through one round. Four teams made it into the postseason in 2011 including Superbowl runners-up New England

Four teams made it to the postseason in 2010 with two teams losing their first game

Possibilities for 2016?

In the last six seasons, three Superbowl winners and one Superbowl runner-up have finished inside the top five in both yards allowed and points allowed.

Two teams achieved that feat in 2016 and they were the same two teams as last season. Denver failed to make the playoffs this season but the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS did, and they finished fifth in yards allowed and third in points allowed.

Seeded third, they'll host the Detroit Lions in the wildcard round before a road trip to Atlanta should they beat Detroit. They've already beaten Atlanta at home this season and although they ended the season 3-3, including a heavy road defeat at Green Bay (38-10), they handed New England one of their two defeats earlier this year.

New England allowed the fewest points this season and I wouldn't put anyone off backing them. However, at a best priced 15/8 for the Superbowl, and just 4/6 for the AFC, they're a touch too short for me. Instead, I have my eyes on the team that forced the most turnovers this season. The KANSAS CITY CHIEFS forced 33 turnovers this season, three more than the next best team, and four of the last six Superbowls have seen a team ranked inside the top five in turnovers take part. After a 2-2 start, the Chiefs ended with 10 wins from their last 12 games to take the second seed from under the nose of their divisional rivals Oakland.

Seattle are 5/1 with bet365 for the NFC and 11/1 for the Superbowl.

Kansas City are 4/1 for the AFC and 10/1 for the Superbowl.

For those more adventurous, the above two teams in the Name the Finalists market are 33/1 with Ladbrokes.

Check out the American Football forum for more discussion and picks during the Playoffs

All my previous blogs can be viewed here To see a wide range of fantastic blogs from the rest of the OLBG bloggers, click hereYou can also follow me on twitter @UTR_83

Contributor Information

We are spoiled with our Expert team at OLBG with our Commercial Content manager Luke Bradshaw-Lee being a keen UK-based NFL fan attending London games and burning the midnight oil to catch all the weekend action, He is ably assisted with inside info from, Michael Calabrese [@EastBreese] ; an Action Network correspondent and College sports podcaster in the US with the deepest football knowledge we have ever come across. They combine to create the best American Football content on OLBG which assists our tipsters in making their NFL predictions in the tipping competition.

Michael Calabrese

Michael Calabrese

Us content manager

Michael Calabrese has covered college and professional sports in the US since 2007. He has been featured in print for publications including Fox Sports, The Action Network, Yardbarker, MSN, Saturday Down South, NumberFire, and JetMag.com. He also regularly appears on ESPN Radio, Fox Sports Radio, and VSIN
Luke Bradshaw Lee

Luke Bradshaw Lee

Commercial content manager

🏈 Luke is a more than keen follower of the NFL taking in as many games as he can over the weekend and always trying to attend the London NFL games each year. American football remains his main personal betting focus and he creates and contributes to our NFL Articles

The data in this article is maintained and updated regularly by Andy Powell and James Banting from our Tipster Competition team who settle and manage all the tips in that seection

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