2:00 Worcester Tips

Since pulling up at the start of the year, Abingworth's form has been on the up. A well-beaten third on the next outing, but won the next two with the latter race having a bit of good fortune with the leading horse falling two from home. Raised 2lb for that win, and although that makes things a little more challenging, he is more than capable of completing the hat-trick.

Just six starts over hurdles for the 7yo and he now makes his chase debut. He likes the better ground. He was a 5L maiden winner last summer and a good 4th on his next start in a strong looking novice hurdle. He’s coming off a 7 month break, his handicap mark looks handy, unexposed over fences and the yard is in good form.

Admittedly, he comes into this with a bit to prove at present. His mark has dropped from 116 to 107, however. He's got ground conditions in his favor, and we know this track suits him. He ran a cracker over CD off this mark last season, finishing a very close 2nd behind Trapista, beaten just a neck. That horse franked the form, winning again off a 7 lbs higher mark next time out. He also placed off a 9 lbs higher mark than this, finishing 2nd behind Parisencore in the Bet365 Perth Silver Cup. He ran okay last time out, not beaten far back in 3rd place. A repeat of that run with Harry in the plate would see him go close here.

His 2 chase wins (from 11 outings) have come over 2m4½f, with the latest coming in his penultimate run in January this year. He followed up with a below par performance on stepping up in distance for his first run over 3m and having gone up 7lbs in the weights, so we can hopefully see him return to the form of his previous 3 runs today on dropping down to 2m4f, having been eased 1lb in the handicap and returning from a 3 months break

The model I run suggests Scene One can win this one. Lines up in this 10-runner race with the highest RPR of the field. Has the second lowest official ranking, which means he goes out carrying the second lowest weight. Tom Cannon picks up the reins, who is a trusted jockey. Scene One is also a prior distance winner and has the highest top speed on the scorecard.

Midnight Jewel led until three out before tiring on the first run for 163 days, 3 weeks ago. Will be fitter today and has been in the first three in 4/6 starts here, including a win. Now back below the last winning mark, the winner of 4/10 chases plus two seconds appears consistent enough in this sphere to make the 14/1 EW value.

Byzantine Empire is an 8-year-old gelding trained by John & Rhys Flint and is a ridiculous price at 40-1 for a horse who is 2/6 chasing and 4/20 over hurdles and is a course winner. The trip is a bit of a worry but has won on today's good ground on four occasions. Runs today off a handicap mark of 111 and last chase win came off a handicap mark of 127 and has won off 119 in both chases, so well handicapped with slight caution about the trip and the 172-day absence. But he's top weight for a reason; he's the best horse in the race.