6:38 Cartmel Tips

The handicapper has dropped him 1 lb for the last run. He's going up in trip this time, with the yard firmly amongst the winners at present. He's now 2 lbs below his last winning mark, having won this race handsomely last season. Despite the winning margin, he came from out of the clouds to win a shade cosily. He managed to place off a mark of 100 next time out, going very close behind Prince Cleni, beaten just over 1 length by the winner. A solid effort given he was lumbered with 12 st. He's struggled for form since then until his most recent run. He ran well back in 4th place behind Fever Dream, beaten just 3 lengths by the winner, shaping like a step up in trip would suit him well. Now he steps up in trip in a weak-looking race with the first-time blinkers on. I think he can go one better this time.

DONNYS FORTUNE has won two point-to-point races at 3m. Unseated rider in a chase over 3m at Hexham on his latest outing earlier this month. Upped in trip to 3m 1f should suit. Seems well treated and could well be able to win this race.

Lights Are Green won this race in 2023 off a mark of 90 and looks interesting back here off just 2 lbs higher. He has actually won two of his 5 starts here, being placed in 2 others. His last win was in July last year off a mark of 91. Unplaced since that win, he returned from a break when 6th at Hexham 3 weeks ago. But back at his favourite track, he looks a good EW bet with 4 places on offer.

Horse is well handicapped today. Had a nice run to finish fourth recently. Mist of the field look like they could need a run in this early part of the season. Big chance at a nice price.

The model I run suggests an upset here from Euchan Falls. This result has largely been driven by Euchan Falls having the joint highest RPR of this larger 12-runner field. Lines up with a reasonably low official ranking, which subsequently means Euchan Falls carries a lower weight comparably. Euchan Falls last ran 31 days ago, so race fitness shouldn't be a concern. The trainer has a high RTF % which helps. The model has issued a 'low' staking reading. This translates to a 0.75pt bet on a scale of 0-4. The suggestion here is 17s offers good value, but there is only a very small winning probability % margin back to Big Bee Hive in second.

Wotsmyname was really unlucky last time out after being backed into 2nd favourite, during the race Sean Quinlan's stirrup snapped and ended riding like a cowboy for approx a furlong before pulling up. Conor O'Farrell takes over in the saddle and hopefully he keeps it during the race. 4 places.

Form did tail off badly towards the end of last season, but has won/run well fresh in the past so 148 day break a plus. Is a C/D winner with a very good course profile, has dropped to a very attractive mark of 90 so is a very well handicapped horse @ this level, good jockey back up and shrewd trainer who is tops here numerically last 5 seasons, is 33 percent with a Lsp of 18.49 on his chasers here last 5 seasons, making current 16/1 solid Ew value in the race.

Chance taken on him here even though his last 4 runs have been PPPP. I'm hoping the P stood for practice. He has dropped massively down the weights now, and in his favor, he has the blinkers reapplied. James Bowen, who has ridden him in 4 of his 6 victories, gets back on board.