8:12 Ballinrobe Tips

The model I run suggests Artsncrafts can win this one. Artsncrafts lines up here with the highest RPR in a limited experience National Hunt Flat. A lot of other runners have not raced before, and experience can be key in races like this. Good second when last out and will look to make some more improvement to get over the line first here today. The model has issued a 'very low' stake indicator due to the small gap back to second in the race simulation. This translates to a 0.5pt bet on a scale of 0-4.

The horses that have run before don't look to be anything special, so this race could go to one of the well-bred newcomers. Gameball and Largy Meadow both fit the bill, and preference is for Gameball. He is by the high-quality National Hunt sire Yeats and out of a Flemensfirth mare who produced the high-class Maries Rock amongst others. His trainer, Andrew Slattery, has a good bumper record and is having a particularly good time with his bumper runners recently.

Tricksofthetrade managed to finish fourth on his bumper debut and looks sure to improve with that run. Could give the hot favorite plenty to think about here.

Crossroads, trained by Edward Power and ridden by David Doyle, returns from a 170-day break after being soundly beaten on debut in a 3m point-to-point at Ballyvodock. That run gave little away, but I'm taking a gamble with him here as he now wears a hood for the first time, which could help settle him down. The drop in trip to almost half the distance may also actually suit him based on pedigree. Small stakes.

Although 0/7 in NHF races, they do have some snippets of form and can put their racecourse experience to good effect here. Good amateur retains ride taking off 5lb, making current 9/1 solid Ew value in the race.