5:42 Ballinrobe Tips

This horse finished 6th last time out at Bellewstown in a much better race than today, meeting a little trouble in that race. I fancy around this tight track he will go very close today.

Mark Walsh rode Realism on a few occasions for former yard of Joseph O'Brien and is booked for first start for trainer Enda Bolger (SR 25%). Connections strongly respected and Realism has been given a lengthy break ahead of first start for the new yard. This six year-old by Galileo has run well at times (third in a Group 3 early on in career), has often gone close in handicap hurdle competition but remains a maiden. New stable commands respect.

Didn’t get the clearest of runs last time at Tipperary when in midfield over two miles. Steps up slightly in trip today from a 2lb lower mark and won’t be far away.

Only One Plan is only one pound above his last winning mark and looks interesting in this Ballinrobe handicap hurdle. He has two career wins, the last coming at Down Royal on September 24 off a mark of 95. Raised 5 lbs for that, he was unplaced in his next 5 starts but dropped back to 95 and finished second 11 days ago at Kilbeggan. He is raised 1 lb for that but still looks like a good each-way bet with 4 places on offer.

The model I run suggests Stily can win this one. Stily lines up here with a comparably high RPR but an official ranking that leaves him ranked bottom. This means Stily steps out carrying the lowest initial weight of the 15 runner field. Tries the tongue tie for the first time to aid concentration and Sean O'Keeffe picks up the reins for this 2m 1f trial. The model has issued a 'very low' stake indicator which translates to a 0.5pt bet on a scale of 0-4.

This horse is thoroughly unexposed, and the trainer has been trying all sorts of trips. The horse is dropped back from around 3 miles to around 2 here, and this trip looks much more suitable. The trainer's runners are going really well, and he's booked one of the stronger jockeys, which looks like a statement of intent. The horse has been dropped 2 lb after that debut handicap run over too far last time out, and he could well be much more competitive here.

A wide-open handicap where Silent Dawn ran well for a long way last time out at Kilbeggan after a few months off. He should be fitter today, looks well-handicapped, and if he can repeat his solid 3rd at Clonmel a few runs back, he should be bang there.

Has run to a similar level in three novice events without troubling the judge. Now moves into handicaps from a reasonable-looking mark and could improve significantly on what we’ve seen so far.

Has caught the eye on a few occasions and did so last time over CD. Hampered at a crucial stage, and the jockey coasted him home in his own time to finish 6th of 15. I am expecting him to at least hit the frame here back at this track again. 18/1 looks fair.

Another big priced runner who I also think will benefit from dropping back in Trip is Maike Magnussen's 6 year old Mare DANIELLE D who didn't embarrass herself 36 days ago on handicap debut (at Kilbeggan) when running well but fading 3 from home, you might be thinking 'Ok then surely around the 20-21f mark would be suffice not 17f?' and yes you'd be correct BUT this Daughter of OCOVANGO's best run was a 5th place at Navan (16f keeping on) in April. A big plus is the booking of Jockey Johnny Shinnick who sheds 3lbs adding to the 3lb shaved off from the handicapper. Jockey also has a 40% ojsve strike rate here at Ballinrobe the past year. Cheekpieces are applied today, look at 40/1 this charge is a risky proposition in the fact that we don't know her best trip but it certainly does look like a step back is the way. Very small each way stakes.