I've spent over 20 years inside the betting industry. I'll guide you to avoid the hype, ignore the noise, and steer clear of the common pitfalls that catch out everyday punters.
- Angus Robertson is the clear bookmakers favourite to be Nicola Sturgeons replacement as Scottish First Minister
- SNP candidates predictably dominate the betting before Anas Sawar comes in at 14/1 with bookies as the Labour representative
- The Next Scottish Elections do not take place until May 2026
- An Independence Referendum is not expected soon as betting sites say 59% probability of 2025 or later.
Betting on the next First Minister of Scotland is available with betting sites and punters have made no secret as to who they think will be next in the hot seat.
We have been taking an in-depth look at 2022 betting markets and one that looks like it has some action to come is the betting on who will be the next First minister of Scotland after Nicola Sturgeon.
We could have some time to wait, however, as the next scheduled date for the Scottish parliament Elections does not come until 7th May 2026.
Next Scottish First Minister Betting Odds.
| Candidate | Party | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angus Robertson | SNP | 6/4 | 40.0% |
| John Swinney | SNP | 6/1 | 14.29% |
| Kate Forbes | SNP | 13/2 | 13.33% |
| Humza Yousef | SNP | 8/1 | 11.11% |
| Joanna Cherry | SNP | 14/1 | 6.67% |
| Anas Sarwar | Scottish Labour | 14/1 | 6.67% |
Angus Robertson
Angus Struan Carolus Robertson is a Scottish politician who has served as the Cabinet Secretary for the Constitution, External Affairs, and Culture since 2021. From 2016 to 2018, he was the Depute Leader of the Scottish National Party, having been elected as a member of the Scottish Parliament from Edinburgh Central in 2021.
He is the clear favorite to replace Nicola Sturgeon at this stage and will be playing a huge part on any Scottish referendum for Independence between now and 2026
Referendum Betting
Nicola Sturgeon has said the Scottish Government will get back to work on plans for a Scottish Independence referendum, outlining 'Before the end of 2023' as a potential date.
She said plans would be somewhat dictated by any further COVID interference but that it is clear another referendum since the last in 2014 is required, post the UK's leave decision on Brexit.
As a result betting sites have opened markets for wagers to place on the date.
Year of Next Scottish Independence Referendum Betting
One thing we can be sure of is that the referendum will not come before the end of the year with bookies makers offering only a 2% chance of 50/1 Odds in the Scottish referendum betting
| Year of Referendum | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 or Later | 1.68 | 59.52% |
| 2024 | 6.4 | 15.62% |
| 2023 | 7.8 | 12.82% |
| 2022 | 7.4 | 13.51% |
| 2021 | 50 | 2% |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 26/12/2021
