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- Alan Carr's Celebrity Traitors victory is the 1/3 favourite to win the P&O Cruises Memorable Moment Award
- Adolescence dominates the professional categories, with Owen Cooper a 1/10 odds-on certainty for Supporting Actor and Stephen Graham a 1/5 favourite for Leading Actor
- The ceremony, hosted by Greg Davies and broadcast on BBC One at 7pm, will also feature the BAFTA Fellowship being presented to Dame Mary Berry and a Television Special Award for Martin Lewis CBE
Britain's Biggest Night in TV Is Here
The 2026 BAFTA Television Awards with P&O Cruises takes place this Sunday, May 10, at the Southbank Centre's Royal Festival Hall in London and betting experts have a clear picture of how the night is likely to unfold.
Hosted by Welsh comedian Greg Davies and broadcast on BBC One and iPlayer from 7pm, it promises to be one of the most compelling BAFTA TV ceremonies in recent memory, with Adolescence leading the nominations with 11 nods across the evening.
For those who want to get involved in the markets, our dedicated BAFTA TV Awards betting and trends page has everything you need to make an informed selection.
Entertainment Betting Sites: Best Bookmakers Compared on Reality TV, Entertainment and Novelty Bets
Alan Carr and The Celebrity Traitors: The Nation's Favourite Moment
The P&O Cruises Memorable Moment Award is unique in the BAFTA landscape, as it is the only category decided entirely by a public vote, honouring the moments that have genuinely captured the nation's imagination across the television year. And in 2026, the betting market is telling a very clear story about where that public sentiment lies.
Alan Carr winning Celebrity Traitors is the 1/3 favourite, a price that implies a 75% probability of the public handing him the award on Sunday night.
Carr's victory in the BBC's celebrity spin-off of the hit format was one of the most joyously entertaining television moments of 2025, combining genuine strategic play with Carr's natural comic warmth to produce a finale that had the country talking.
The fact that it is a public vote rather than a jury decision makes his 1/3 price feel entirely credible and this is the kind of moment that plays brilliantly on social media, generates enormous warmth and cuts through to the broadest possible television audience.
Second in the market is Adolescence's Jamie Snaps at the Psychologist scene at 6/4, a moment of extraordinary raw television that generated significant critical and public discussion.
| P&O Cruises Memorable Moment Award | Odds* | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| The Celebrity Traitors – Alan Carr Wins | 1/3 | 75.0% |
| Adolescence – Jamie Snaps at the Psychologist | 6/4 | 40.0% |
| Last One Laughing – Speed Date Scene | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| Big Boys – "I didn't make it, did I?" | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Blue Lights – Ambush Warning Scene | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| What It Feels Like For A Girl – Paris Introduction | 8/1 | 11.1% |
Adolescence Sweeps the Professional Categories
While Alan Carr leads the public vote, the professional categories paint an even more emphatic picture, and Adolescence is the name at the centre of almost all of it.
Stephen Graham's Netflix drama, which led this year's nominations with 11 nods, has become one of the defining television events of recent years, and the betting market is treating its dominance at Sunday's ceremony as close to a foregone conclusion.
Owen Cooper is a staggering 1/10 favourite for Supporting Actor, a price that implies over 90% certainty of victory for the young actor whose performance as Jamie, the 13-year-old at the heart of the drama, has been universally acclaimed.
| Supporting Actor | Show | Odds* | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Cooper | Adolescence | 1/10 | 90.9% |
| Paddy Considine | MobLand | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| Ashley Walters | Adolescence | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| Rafael Mathe | The Death of Bunny Munro | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Fehinti Balogun | Down Cemetery Road | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Joshua McGuire | The Gold | 8/1 | 11.1% |
Stephen Graham himself is the 1/5 favourite for Leading Actor, another short price that underlines how comprehensively Adolescence has captured the BAFTA electorate's imagination.
Matt Smith's performance in The Death of Bunny Munro has caught the market's attention at 6/4, with Colin Firth (Lockerbie: A Search For Truth) at 2/1.
James Nelson-Joyce (This City Is Ours) and Taron Egerton (Smoke) share a 3/1 price, while Ellis Howard (What It Feels Like For A Girl) is available at 6/1.
| Leading Actor | Show | Odds* | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Graham | Adolescence | 1/5 | 83.3% |
| Matt Smith | The Death of Bunny Munro | 6/4 | 40.0% |
| Colin Firth | Lockerbie: A Search For Truth | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| James Nelson-Joyce | This City Is Ours | 3/1 | 25.0% |
| Taron Egerton | Smoke | 3/1 | 25.0% |
| Ellis Howard | What It Feels Like For A Girl | 6/1 | 14.3% |
In Limited Drama, Adolescence is a 1/4 favourite, with Trespasses and I Fought The Law both at 4/1 and What It Feels Like For A Girl at 6/1.
| Limited Drama | Odds* | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Adolescence | 1/4 | 80.0% |
| Trespasses | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| I Fought The Law | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| What It Feels Like For A Girl | 6/1 | 14.3% |
*As betting sites currently aren't taking bets on this event, odds have been compiled as theoretical probability from an entertainment perspective only and come from an industry expert
