The Astronomical Probability of FA Cup Third Round Giant Killings

The 11 Biggest Shocks in FA Cup 3rd Round History

Explore the most jaw-dropping FA Cup third round results, where underdogs stunned football giants, leaving fans in disbelief and history rewritten. After this, I will share the game that had the most unlikely outcome, scientifically predicted as a 16 million to one chance

1. Hereford United 2-1 Newcastle United (1972)

The winning goal: but not Ronnie Radfords' thunderbolt

On a muddy afternoon at Edgar Street, Newcastle United’s trip to Hereford was supposed to be a formality, yet it became one of the most iconic FA Cup moments of all time. The First Division giants initially took the lead, and with conditions deteriorating, many expected their class to see them through.

However, that expectation was blown apart when Ronnie Radford unleashed a stunning long-range strike to draw Hereford level – a goal still replayed decades later and one that arguably made legendary commentator John Motson a household name,

With momentum now on their side and the home crowd in raptures, Ricky George provided the extra-time winner that wrote Hereford’s name into history and in doing so, Newcastle’s humbling remains the benchmark for all FA Cup giant-killings that have followed since.

2. Sutton United 2-1 Coventry City (1989)

FA Cup Third Round match at Gardner Green Lane

Coventry City arrived at Gander Green Lane as heavy favourites, especially considering they had lifted the FA Cup no more than 18 months prior after their 1987 final win over Tottenham at Wembley.

However, Sutton United had other ideas and would go on to create one of the most famous upsets in the competition’s history. A first-half strike from Tony Rains gave the non-League side belief, and although Coventry levelled proceedings, Matthew Hanlan’s second-half goal sealed a 2-1 victory.

It was a performance of determination, grit, and heroics from non-league Sutton, while Coventry became a cautionary tale of what happens when top-flight sides underestimate their lower-league opponents – a tale that many other clubs have failed to read since.

3. West Bromwich Albion 2-4 Woking (1991)

Hat-trick hero Tim Buzaglo mobbed by jubilant fans at the end. 5th January 1991

Second Division West Brom were fully expected to dispatch non-League Woking at the Hawthorns, especially after taking a first-half lead. But the game turned on its head in the second half, thanks to an inspired display by Tim Buzaglo.

The part-time striker stunned West Brom with a hat-trick, a feat that sent shockwaves through the ground and gave Woking an unthinkable 3-1 lead. Terry Worsfold then added a fourth to complete the rout, as West Brom’s fans could only applaud Woking’s effort at full-time.

It remains a performance for the ages, with Buzaglo’s name etched into FA Cup folklore while the surname Buzaglo is now often found on Sky Sports and Premier League programming thanks to Tim’s daughter Olivia.

4. Wrexham 2-1 Arsenal (1992)

Wrexham dressing room celebrations after historic FA Cup giant killing

When Arsenal travelled to Wrexham for this Third Round clash, their status as current English champions meant anything but victory was unthinkable for wily manager George Graham and it looked to be the case when Alan Smith gave the Gunners the lead.

However the Racecourse Ground would soon witness one of its greatest spectacles as veteran midfielder Mickey Thomas produced a sensational free-kick to level the tie - a goal that galvanised the underdogs and shook Arsenal’s confidence.

Just moments later, Steve Watkin poked home the winner to seal a famous 2-1 comeback and although the visitors thought they had scored in injury time, an offside flag would help dump Arsenal out of a game that is still celebrated as the epitome of FA Cup magic.

5. Shrewsbury Town 2-1 Everton (2003)

Shrewsbury Town's Nigel Jemson gets mobbed after scoring the winner!

At Gay Meadow, Shrewsbury Town were struggling at the bottom of the Football League, while Premier League Everton arrived with aspirations of a deep FA Cup run having not won the competition since 1995.

That expectation was shattered by Shrewsbury’s Nigel Jemson, whose first-half free-kick gave the hosts an unexpected lead. Everton hit back through Niclas Alexandersson and looked to force a replay, but Jemson had other plans.

With time running out, he rose to head home the winner, sparking pandemonium among the Shrewsbury faithful. Everton, undone by their lacklustre performance, were left to reflect on yet another Premier League side falling to lower-league opposition.

6. Burnley 1-0 Liverpool (2005)

An icy Turf Moor played host to one of the FA Cup’s most surreal moments, as Championship side Burnley eliminated Liverpool in bizarre fashion. Rafa Benitez’s rotated squad struggled to adapt to the conditions, and their lack of cohesion was ultimately punished by a bizarre own-goal.

After attempting an unnecessary drag-back, Djimi Traore comically bundled the ball into his own net and this would be the only entry on the scoresheet as the Merseyside men were dumped out of the competition.

Liverpool’s shock exit overshadowed their eventual Champions League triumph later that season – although Traore would be on the winning side in that infamous final with AC Milan but at the same time, Burnley’s giant-killing offered everyone a reminder of the FA Cup’s unforgiving nature.

7. Manchester United 0-1 Leeds United (2010)

Old Trafford rarely witnesses humiliation for Manchester United especially when it was overseen by Sir Alex Ferguson, but when they welcomed fierce rivals Leeds United in 2010, it turned into an afternoon to forget for the Red Devils.

Leeds, then in League One, took the lead through Jermaine Beckford, who coolly slotted home to stun the home crowd. Manchester United dominated possession in search of an equaliser, but a resolute Leeds defence and goalkeeper Casper Ankergren stood firm.

At the final whistle, Leeds fans erupted, celebrating their club’s most famous win in years – especially as they were two leagues below their local rivals, while Ferguson’s decision to rotate his squad backfired in spectacular fashion and showed why you must respect the competition at all times.

8. Stevenage 3-1 Newcastle United (2011)

Stevenage’s first-ever season in the Football League brought them an unforgettable FA Cup tie when paired at home with Newcastle United and one that ended in humiliation for their Premier League opponents.

Stevenage would find themselves ahead as Stacy Long gave the home side the lead, and from there teammate Michael Bostwick’s second-half strike made an unlikely upset seem suddenly increasingly likely.

Newcastle’s frustrations boiled over when Cheick Tiote was sent off, and although Joey Barton pulled one back, Peter Winn’s injury-time goal sealed Stevenage’s 3-1 win. The home crowd erupted at full time, celebrating a famous result that added Newcastle to the list of top-flight casualties.

9. Newport County 2-1 Leicester City (2019)

At Rodney Parade, Newport County’s Fourth Round hopes hung on upsetting Premier League side Leicester City. Those hopes were boosted when Jamille Matt gave the Exiles an early lead, setting the stage for a potential shock.

Like most cup ties, there was plenty of ebb and flow and this was no different when Leicester eventually equalised through Rachid Ghezzal and although this sometimes serves as the impetus for the big club to go on and get a winner, this was not the case.

When a late penalty was awarded, Padraig Amond stepped up to coolly restore Newport’s lead and with not enough time for the Foxes to restore parity for the second time, this results proved that the magic of the FA Cup is alive and well.

10. Aston Villa 1-2 Stevenage (2023)

Aston Villa’s clash with Stevenage looked routine on paper, especially when Morgan Sanson gave the Premier League side a first-half lead. However, the League Two visitors refused to back down and took full advantage of late drama.

With two minutes remaining, Leander Dendoncker’s dismissal handed Stevenage a penalty, which Jamie Reid calmly converted. Minutes later, Dean Campbell fired in a stunning winner from a short corner routine, silencing Villa Park.

It was a sensational comeback for the underdogs, with Stevenage’s heroics ensuring they progressed to the Fourth Round and in doing so, the club would also claim a second major FA Cup scalp in just over a decade

While it is not just the Third Round where the shocks take place and you only have to cast your mind back to last season and what happened at Portman Road in the following round:

11. Ipswich Town 1-2 Maidstone United (2024)

Ipswich Town’s Fourth Round meeting with non-league Maidstone United seemed a foregone conclusion, particularly given the Championship side’s promotion ambitions. Yet Maidstone, from the National League South, delivered a stunning upset.

Despite Ipswich dominating with 38 shots, Maidstone struck twice on the break with their only efforts on goal, showcasing clinical finishing that belied their underdog status and highlighting that its what you do with the ball, not how much you have of it.

Lucas Covolan was the visitors’ hero, producing a string of superb saves to frustrate Ipswich’s relentless pressure and when the final whistle finally blew, it confirmed Maidstone as the first sixth-tier team in 20 years to reach the Fifth Round.

The Scientific 16,000,000/1 Winners

This list of giant killings is by no means exhaustive, and if you were to debate the best ever, it is an argument that could see plenty of other contenders added to the list, and one that argument is largely ongoing.

But what happens if you bring science into the equation? In 2022, the FA did precisely that.

The FA teamed up with the Institute for Mathematical Innovation at the University of Bath to commission the research that considered Opta data from more than 8,000 FA Cup ties as part of the process.

equation fa cup // thefa.com

Using probability theory, the University verified a historical top 10 of the least likely scorelines from the last 50 years of the competition.

In their opinion, Woking’s shock win over West Brom was the unlikeliest win of them all, and the odds of the Baggies losing at the Hawthorns that evening were greater than conceiving identical quadruplets.

To put this into context, It was calculated as a 1 in 15,959,312 chance of West Brom losing to non-league opposition, a 1 in 15,339,390 chance of giving birth to what can only be described as a major miracle.

• Another iconic upset came in 1972 when non-league Hereford United defeated top-tier Newcastle United 2-1. The odds of that win stood at 1 in 32,449, comparable to the extraordinary likelihood of growing over seven feet tall (1 in 26,315).
• In 2011, Stevenage stunned Newcastle once again with a 3-1 victory, a result given odds of 1 in 7,712. That’s about as likely as rolling five consecutive sixes on a standard die (1 in 7,776), an improbable scenario that became reality as the League Two side toppled their Premier League opponents.
• When Altrincham defeated Birmingham City 2-1 in 1986, the result carried a 1 in 4,376 chance of happening, similar to being dealt a four-of-a-kind poker hand (1 in 4,165). For a non-league club to eliminate a First Division team remains one of the great David-vs-Goliath moments in FA Cup folklore.
• Fast forward to 2016, and Oxford United's 3-2 win over Swansea City carried odds of 1 in 3,487, not far off the chance of scoring a hat-trick in the FA Cup final and lifting the trophy (1 in 2,993). Oxford, a League Two outfit, pulled off a remarkable comeback against their Premier League opposition.
• The famous Sutton United 2-1 Coventry City upset in 1989 Coventry, being recent winners of the cup at the time, had a probability of 1 in 3,260. In perspective, it’s about as likely as the FA Cup trophy landing in the UK if dropped from space (1 in 2,103), another improbable but imaginable scenario.
• When Wimbledon defeated Burnley 1-0. With odds of 1 in 2,515, this result matched the rarity of becoming a NASA astronaut, an outcome that happens at a rate of 1 in 1,525. The win in 1975 marked a significant chapter in Wimbledon's underdog history.
• The result in 1980, when Harlow Town defeated Leicester City 1-0, had a probability of 1 in 1,800, an achievement nearly as unlikely as being born on a leap day, which stands at 1 in 1,461. Harlow's triumph over their First Division opponents remains etched in footballing folklore.
• In 2002, Bristol Rovers' 3-1 win over Derby County carried odds of 1 in 397. That’s equivalent to tossing eight consecutive heads in a coin flip, which has a 1 in 256 chance. Bristol Rovers, playing in the third tier, defied the odds to knock out a higher-level opponent with authority.
• Finally, Newport County’s 2-1 win over Leicester City in 2019 came with a 1 in 337 probability, an upset akin to the chance of conceiving identical twins, roughly 1 in 250. Newport’s performance proved again that underdogs can thrive in the FA Cup.

These comparisons not only underline the scale of the achievement for the winning teams but also highlight the FA Cup's enduring ability to create moments that defy the odds—just as rare and remarkable as these real-life scenarios.

Where will the next giant killing be, and with no replays at this stage of the competition, will it be easier to pull one off? The answers will be found at the start of the New Year.

SOURCES

https://www.thefa.com/news/2023/jan/04/fa-cup-third-round-classic-upsets-20230401

https://www.sportingnews.com/in/football/news/fa-cup-giant-killers-biggest-upsets-england-tournament/vmwjolhgkfn2kmp1dltoipy0

https://www.londonfa.com/news/2022/jan/07/new-research-regarding-woking-vs-west-bromwich-albion

https://fd.oddsportal.com/football/england/fa-cup-2018-2019/newport-leicester-KY2nJTni/#1X2;2