Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
2024 Sovereign Stakes Preview
The Sovereign Stakes is one of the season highlights at Salisbury racecourse with it being just one of two group races to be run there, the other being the Dick Poole Fillies Stakes. Established in 2000 it's a Group 3 flat race which is open to colts and geldings who are aged three or older.
The race is scheduled to take place in August of each year and is run over a straight mile, three-year-old runners receive a 6lb allowance from their older opponents with any group winners having to carry a penalty in the race, Group 1 (7lb), Group 2 (5lb) and Group 3 (3lb).
**As of 2024, the BHA has discontinued the Sovereign Stakes.
Sovereign Stakes Information:
We also have a dedicated Salisbury tips page that will cover this race as well as all of the other races on the day of the race, see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are predicting to win this race and the others on the cards.
How competitive is the Sovereign Stakes market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2022 when the race had an over-round of 106%. The race in 2006 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 122%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Sovereign Stakes, the over-round has been 114%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £114 which is bet.
Sovereign Stakes Trends:
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Sovereign Stakes next time out then you would have backed a total of 4 winners. Backing all 20 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -4.62. Whilst we wait for the 2024 Sovereign Stakes remember you can get daily racing predictions from the expert tipsters on the racing predictions page.
Over the last 20 renewals, it was Layman, trained by Saeed bin Suroor and ridden by Kerrin McEvoy who set the fastest winning time in the Sovereign Stakes, the runner won the race in a time of 1:38.29 when winning the race in 2005. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer John Gosden and jockey Oisin Murphy with Kick On who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 1:45.81 in the 2019 renewal.
These are the top three quickest-run Sovereign Stakes over the last 20 renewals:
- Layman (1:38.29) in 2005
- Regal Reality (1:38.32) in 2020
- Afsare (1:39.28) in 2013
Sovereign Stakes Past Winners
Here are the Sovereign Stakes past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer at the time of winning the Sovereign Stakes and the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 1:39.46 | Mighty Ulysses (GB) 4yo 9-5 (2 of 5) 3/1 | Oisin Murphy John & Thady Gosden (GB) |
| 2023 1:39.46 | Embesto (GB) 3yo 8-13 (4 of 5) 10/11F | David Egan Roger Varian (GB) |
| 2022 1:41.32 | Tempus (GB) 6yo 9-5 (3 of 4) 11/4 | Hollie Doyle Archie Watson (GB) |
| 2021 1:43.09 | Megallan (GB) 3yo 8-10 (4 of 10) 7/4F | Robert Havlin John & Thady Gosden (GB) |
| 2020 1:38.32 | Regal Reality (GB) 5yo 9-3 (4 of 8) 7/1 | Richard Kingscote Sir Michael Stoute (GB) |
| 2019 1:45.81 | Kick On (GB) 3yo 8-10 (7 of 6) 9/2 | Oisin Murphy John Gosden (GB) |
| 2018 1:45.02 | Plumatic (GB) 4yo 9-2 (5 of 6) 3/1 | Maxime Guyon A Fabre (FR) |
| 2017 1:42.49 | Ballet Concerto (GB) 4yo 9-0 (2 of 6) 5/2 | Ryan Moore Sir Michael Stoute (GB) |
| 2016 1:40.35 | Zonderland (GB) 3yo 8-7 (5 of 7) 4/1 | Oisin Murphy Clive Cox (GB) |
| 2015 1:40.58 | Kodi Bear (IRE) 3yo 8-7 (4 of 9) 11/4F | Gerald Mosse Clive Cox (GB) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Sovereign Stakes have been based:
- GB: 20 winners with an additional 27 placings from 153 runners
- FR: 1 winner with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
- SAF: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
Sovereign Stakes Trainer Statistics
There are multiple leading trainers in the Sovereign Stakes over the last 20 renewals with Andrew Balding, Saeed bin Suroor, Sir Michael Stoute, Clive Cox and John & Thady Gosden having all won the race two times. Andrew Balding's winners have been with Side Glance (2011) and Tullius (2012). Saeed bin Suroor winners have been with Layman (2005) and Belenus (2006). Sir Michael Stoute winners have been with Ballet Concerto (2017) and Regal Reality (2020). Clive Cox's winners have been with Kodi Bear (2015) and Zonderland (2016). John & Thady Gosden winners have been with Megallan (2021) and Mighty Ulysses (2023). There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the Sovereign Stakes, Richard Hannon has sent a total of 11 runners to the race without recording any wins.
Here are some of the top Sovereign Stakes trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Balding | 14-2-2 | -7.25 | -8.08 |
| Saeed bin Suroor | 11-2-4 | -3.40 | -2.39 |
| Sir Michael Stoute | 7-2-3 | +4.50 | +1.36 |
| Clive Cox | 6-2-4 | +2.75 | +2.10 |
| John & Thady Gosden | 2-2-2 | +4.75 | +2.93 |
| David Elsworth | 5-1-2 | -1.00 | -1.01 |
| John Gosden | 3-1-1 | +2.50 | +0.81 |
| Roger Charlton | 2-1-1 | +4.50 | +2.44 |
| A Fabre | 1-1-1 | +3.00 | +1.88 |
| Archie Watson | 1-1-1 | +2.75 | +0.00 |
Sovereign Stakes Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the Sovereign Stakes over the last 20 renewals is Oisin Murphy who has won the race three times with those three winners coming from Zonderland (2016), Kick On (2019) and Mighty Ulysses (2023). The only other jockey to have recorded multiple wins in the Sovereign Stakes is Ryan Moore (2 wins).
Here are some of the top Sovereign Stakes jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oisin Murphy | 5-3-3 | +9.50 | +5.19 |
| Ryan Moore | 5-2-5 | +4.50 | +5.00 |
| Richard Kingscote | 5-1-1 | +3.00 | +0.20 |
| Frankie Dettori | 5-1-2 | -2.90 | -2.19 |
| J F Egan | 4-1-1 | +0.00 | -1.20 |
| Jamie Spencer | 4-1-1 | -0.50 | -1.44 |
| Andrea Atzeni | 3-1-1 | +0.25 | -0.59 |
| James Doyle | 2-1-1 | +4.50 | +2.44 |
| Robert Havlin | 2-1-1 | +0.75 | +0.05 |
| Kerrin McEvoy | 1-1-1 | +4.50 | +2.70 |
2024 Sovereign Stakes Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 8, 7, 1, 1, (4, 5), 2, 5, 1, 7, 1, 4, 1, 7, 2, 4, (3, 5), 7, 1, 2, 1
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.
- 21 / 21 (77%) - Within the first 6 of the market
- 21 / 21 (77%) - Fewer than 11 races (Trip)
- 21 / 21 (79%) - Achieved an RPR of 108+ (Last 3)
- 21 / 21 (83%) - Held an OR of 105+
- 21 / 21 (84%) - Highest Won is not G1-2
- 21 / 21 (85%) - Fewer than 1 wins (Higher Class)
- 21 / 21 (86%) - Not in a G1-2 (Last Win)
- 21 / 21 (86%) - Achieved a TS of 79+ (Last 3)
- 21 / 21 (88%) - Had 2 - 8 wins (Career)
- 21 / 21 (88%) - Placed within last 4 starts
- 21 / 21 (89%) - No bigger than 25/1
- 20 / 21 (83%) - Won by at least ½l (Last Win)
- 20 / 21 (89%) - Beaten no more -1½l (LTO)
- 19 / 21 (74%) - No bigger than 12/1 (LTO)
- 19 / 21 (85%) - No bigger than 25/1 (Debut)
Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Salisbury racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Sovereign Stakes. If you are looking to place on a bet this race well in advance of the actual running, then there may be an ante-post market available for you to place your bet. If you are unfamiliar with this type of betting then head over to the OLBG Betting School and read our Ante-Post Horse Racing article which explains how ante-post betting works.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Sovereign Stakes by adding a tip on the race here.
Sovereign Stakes Trend Analysis
The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +19.10 is when runners had 1 place in the past 90 days. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 2 career places in higher class races, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-22.
Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2023: Winner in 2 [5 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 3 [4 Runners]
- 2021: Winner in 4 (9,2) [10 Runners]
- 2020: Winner in 4 (3,6) [8 Runners]
- 2019: Winner in 7 (2) [6 Runners]
The course which has produced the most winners of the Sovereign Stakes is Ascot, there has been a total number of 6 winners of this race who ran at Ascot last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Chantilly, there has been a total number of 4 winners of this race who ran at Chantilly last time out.
Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Sovereign Stakes:
- Cape Cross (2 Wins)
- Dubawi (2 Wins)
- Kingman (2 Wins)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Mac Love in 2009, winning for Stef Higgins at odds of 25/1 under the guidance of Micky Fenton. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there have been 7 winning favourites in the race. Remember to bookmark the best racing tipsters page so you can get easy access to the best OLBG racing tipsters. If you are interested in other races at the Salisbury racecourse, then why not read our blog for the Dick Poole Fillies Stakes?
Article Contributor Information
We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Sovereign Stakes Preview are at hand, Andy and Darren. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for Flat Racing.
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