Writer, analyst, podcaster, Spurs fan. Three out of four is not bad. If there is a data angle, I will find it.
Second Season Syndrome
With the Premier League season ready for 2024/25, the 17 teams that avoided the drop last season can take a breath before they do it all again in August and through to next May. Joining those who stayed put last time around are the trio of Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton and although their first hurdle is not to be relegated at the first time of asking, they then have to try and avoid a potentially deadly illness called 'Second Season Syndrome'
๐ข Discover the dreaded Second-Season-Syndrome
A syndrome that is often referred to by those within the football fraternity and for those who are not aware of its meaning, it means a team that has been played as a promoted team one season and then subsequently relegated at the end of the next.
Something that all progressive clubs are looking to avoid and although reaching the promised land of the Premier League can mean months of celebration, in some cases those celebrations eventually come to a rather delayed end.
However, the use of second season syndrome in football parlance can also be considered as a cliché and with it being parroted by so many, its actual meaning has been watered down over the past few years.
To the point where we can ask one pertinent question. Does second season syndrome actually exist?
Thankfully, we have all the data to prove how dangerous it has been within the confines of the Premier League and now we are going to reveal which clubs succumbed and who had the vaccine.
WHERE IT ALL BEGAN
From the Premier League concluding its first season in 1992/93 to the end of the previous campaign (2023/24), there have been 97 Premier League relegations. 32 seasons, three teams down - except for 1994/95 when four were consigned to the drop after reconstruction.
Of course, those 97 teams are not unique and another term spouted about teams near or at the foot of the Premier League is them being a yo-yo club. A term that is perhaps even worse than that of second-season syndrome.
Because in this instance, a yo-yo club earns promotion at the end of one season and then goes straight back down at the end of the next, often favoured by bookmakers to make an instant return. Altogether avoiding the perils of the second-season syndrome but suffering a much worse fate.
For now, though, our focus will be on those clubs who suffer relegation at the second time of asking and of the 97 occasions where a wave goodbye has been offered to the Premier League, just 13 of them have been due to second season syndrome. However, you would have to exclude the first three in 1992/93 as there could no signs of 'Second Season Syndrome' that early.
This means just over one in eight relegations is courtesy of Second-Season-Syndrome or 13.8% to be precise. A figure that suggests that the plague is not as prevalent in the Premier League as first thought.
To further add context to this, it means that every three seasons that the Premier League is contested, one of the nine clubs, on average is to be relegated via the pitfalls of second-season syndrome.
This also means if you can avoid being a yo-yo club, the odds are at least one your sides second time around and that will give hope to the trio of clubs who were promoted at the back end of the 2023/24 season if they can stay in the Premier League for the start of the 2025/26 campaign.
THE UNLUCKY THIRTEEN
Now we know the number of times our subject has surfaced in the Premier League, it is time to look at just who has been the unlucky 13 and when it comes to this table, this is not the one that any team wants to be at the top of.
| Team | SSS Relegations |
|---|---|
| Birmingham | 1 |
| Bradford | 1 |
| Huddersfield | 1 |
| Hull | 2 |
| Ipswich | 1 |
| Middlesbrough | 1 |
| Oldham | 1 |
| QPR | 1 |
| Reading | 1 |
| Sheffield United | 2 |
| West Brom | 1 |
Of the 13 instances where second season syndrome has occurred, 11 different clubs have suffered the burden of delayed relegation and for those who support either Hull or Sheffield United it does not make for good reading at all.
Because these two outfits have fallen foul to this ailment on two separate occasions and with the Blades succumbing to the diagnosis at the end of the 2020/21, we not only have our latest addition to the list, but it also sees the Bramall Lane outfit go joint top in the standings.
Second Season Syndrome: Notable Absences
What is perhaps interesting here, is that of all the teams that have suffered from second season syndrome since the inception of the Premier League, one of them are currently plying their trade in the competition – Ipswich's promotion to the Premier League puts them apart from a list of what is quickly becoming a list of teams from yesteryear.
This perhaps adds credence to the suggestion that teams have overstretched themselves in the pursuit of a continual Premier League presence and in doing so, have ended up flying too close to the financial sun.
While another way to add context to this, is by seeing what percentage of relegations for these 11 clubs are comprised of demotions the second time around:
| Team | Total Relegations | SSS Relegations | % Of SSS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 3 | 1 | 33.33% |
| Bradford | 1 | 1 | 100.00% |
| Huddersfield | 1 | 1 | 100.00% |
| Hull | 3 | 2 | 66.67% |
| Ipswich | 2 | 1 | 50.00% |
| Middlesbrough | 4 | 1 | 25.00% |
| Oldham | 1 | 1 | 100.00% |
| QPR | 3 | 1 | 33.33% |
| Reading | 2 | 1 | 50.00% |
| Sheffield United | 4 | 2 | 50.00% |
| West Brom | 5 | 1 | 20.00% |
Here it does not make good reading for the trio of Bradford, Huddersfield, and Oldham. Not only was each of their relegations from the Premier League a second-season syndrome offering but they also have not been seen in the competition since.
Yo-Yo Clubs and Relegations
Huddersfield missed their opportunity to return to the Premier League at the end of the 2021/22 season, as they lost to Nottingham Forest in the playoffs. Bradford are still languishing in League Two, Oldham have fallen out of the EFL altogether.
While one cannot overlook West Brom’s offering in this table either and as the epitome of a Premier League yo-yo club, the Hawthorns outfit have been relegated on five separate occasions, with just one coming courtesy of second season syndrome.
In addition to this, Hull have seemingly had the worst of both relegation worlds and with three returns to the EFL Championship, two of those have been courtesy of second season syndrome and one has been as a yo-yo club.
Bounce Factor - Up & Down
Of course, we could also expand on the relegation point and look at those teams who really are the definition of a yo-yo club and by using the same data sample, we can also highlight the teams that go straight back down the most often:
| Team | Yo-Yo Relegations |
|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 4 |
| Norwich | 4 |
| Burnley | 3 |
| Watford | 3 |
| West Brom | 3 |
| Bolton | 2 |
| Cardiff | 2 |
| Fulham | 2 |
| Leicester | 2 |
| Middlesbrough | 2 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2 |
| Sheffield United | 2 |
| Sunderland | 2 |
| Barnsley | 1 |
| Birmingham | 1 |
| Blackpool | 1 |
| Charlton | 1 |
| Derby | 1 |
| Hull | 1 |
| Luton | 1 |
| Manchester City | 1 |
| QPR | 1 |
| Reading | 1 |
| Swindon | 1 |
| Wolves | 1 |
Exciting (yet nerve-wracking) stats!
Of the 97 instances where a club has been relegated out of the Premier League, 45 of the 94 where a yo-yo could take place have been courtesy of yo-yo transition. This means if you get promoted to the top tier of English football, you have a 52% chance of staying up in the first season.
A 52.13% percent chance of staying up in the first season after a promotion, an almost flip of the coin and one that saw Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United all make the wrong call in the 2023/24 edition of the Premier League. No second season syndrome for them to worry about, instead a drop back to the Championship at the first time of asking.
However, just because it is easy does not mean it is impossible to get relegated either and as far as Crystal Palace are concerned, they will be glad that stability has been afforded to the club in recent years.
Because before their current unbroken stint of Premier League participation, the Eagles did anything but soar and after suffering four yo-yo relegations, they currently find themselves at joint top of this particular table.
Then again, they need to make room for Norwich and with the Canaries suffering the drop at the end of the 2021/22 season, they have now suffered four yo-yo relegations from the six instances where they have been demoted.
While if we compare the yo-yo list to the second season syndrome list, there is at least one notable difference: the former has current members of the Premier League within it, while the latter does not.
Of those teams that have suffered a swift return to the second tier of English football, six of them are in the latest crop of 20 and they are comprised of: Crystal Palace, Leicester, Fulham, Nottingham Forest, Manchester City, and Wolves
๐ฐ๐ From relegation woes to football lottery champions! ๐๐
Yes, even Manchester City is not immune from a yo-yo relegation, although it must be noted that their second relegation out of the Premier League came long before they ended up winning the football lottery and were bought by the state of Abu Dhabi.
Again, to add further context to the teams in our yo-yo list, it makes sense to also factor in the total relegations for each of them:
| Team | Yo-Yo Relegations | Total Relegations | % Of Yo-Yo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 4 | 4 | 100.00% |
| Cardiff | 2 | 2 | 100.00% |
| Barnsley | 1 | 1 | 100.00% |
| Blackpool | 1 | 1 | 100.00% |
| Luton | 1 | 1 | 100.00% |
| Swindon | 1 | 1 | 100.00% |
| Burnley | 3 | 4 | 75.00% |
| Watford | 3 | 4 | 75.00% |
| Bolton | 2 | 3 | 66.67% |
| Fulham | 2 | 3 | 66.67% |
| Nottingham Forest | 2 | 3 | 66.67% |
| West Brom | 3 | 5 | 60.00% |
| Norwich | 3 | 6 | 50.00% |
| Leicester | 2 | 4 | 50.00% |
| Middlesbrough | 2 | 4 | 50.00% |
| Sheffield United | 2 | 4 | 50.00% |
| Sunderland | 2 | 4 | 50.00% |
| Charlton | 1 | 2 | 50.00% |
| Derby | 1 | 2 | 50.00% |
| Manchester City | 1 | 2 | 50.00% |
| Reading | 1 | 2 | 50.00% |
| Wolves | 1 | 2 | 50.00% |
| Birmingham | 1 | 3 | 33.33% |
| Hull | 1 | 3 | 33.33% |
| QPR | 1 | 3 | 33.33% |
Again, it does not make particularly good reading for Crystal Palace supporters, as all their previous four relegations from the Premier League, have come after just one respective season in the top-flight.
Then again, Cardiff have little to celebrate either, as the South Wales outfit have suffered two yo-yo relegations from two. While there is little reason for both Burnley and Watford to celebrate as three of their four relegations have been courtesy of the yo-yo.
While staying on the topic of going down, the celebrations for Swindon, Blackpool, Luton and Barnsley were all short-lived and after arriving in the Premier League for the first time, their subsequent yo-yo relegations would also account for the only appearances in the competition to date.
CONCLUSION
As far as second season syndrome is concerned, it is not as prevalent as you may think and next time you hear it mentioned on the tv or written somewhere online, you now have all the information to debunk such a statement.
When it comes to yo-yo clubs in the Premier League, you now know which teams are genuinely worthy of that tag (Norwich, West Brom) and which teams are doing their level best to rid themselves of such a moniker (Crystal Palace)
Methodology
Data was collected from Wikipedia and updated by the article creator on 12th August 2024.
Meet The Author
Researched and written by Dan Tracey ahead of Publishing by Steve Madgwick
Dan Tracey is a multi-talented writer, data analyst and podcaster whose six-year career in the sports data sphere has seen incredible successes. From helping UEFA create their annual technical reports to writing articles for Sports Betting Websites including sites like TheLinesUS and Goal - there's no shortage of areas where his expertise shines through! In addition he can be heard on podcasts lending an insightful voice as well as providing weekly betting angles - all culminating with him teaming up OLBG.com in the present day. Simply put: wherever you find angled data being crunched? You'll also likely find Dan not far behind!
